Marvel Studios makes billions of dollars every year
* Coherent video
* Characters with backstory
* Dialogue (including jokes and witty banter)
* Music
...among many other things. Plus, the training set for video is orders of magnitude smaller than for digital art. (And is additionally burdened with copyright issues.)
As I see it, there's simply no path from the DALL-E of today to something like that. And all for art that, essentially, "says nothing and means nothing".
Characters and dialogue are effectively solved, just look at GPT-3.
The entity behind StableDiffusion is also supporting generative music art, so let's see what is coming out of that: https://www.harmonai.org/
We are currently far away from generating a production quality movie with AI, but I don't think it's going to be nearly as long as a lifetime. In my opinion, we'll have high quality AI shorts within the decade.
Is this the motherload of exaggeration?
Current language models cannot generate coherent dialog (and even then it's mostly bad dialog) spanning more than a minute or two. And their current capabilities in that area are definitely significantly below those of the average human writer.
INT. DARKNESS We hear a faint beating heart. A moment later, we see a light slowly growing in the darkness. As the light grows, we see that it is coming from a glowing object in a person’s hand. The object is a hammer.
We see the face of the person holding the hammer. It is Thor. He looks tired and beaten.
Suddenly, we hear a voice from the darkness.
Black Panther: You are not welcome here, Thor.
Thor: I know. But I must speak with you.
Black Panther: You have nothing to say that I want to hear.
Thor: I come bearing a warning. Thanos is coming.
Black Panther: We are prepared.
Thor: He is not coming alone. He has an army.
Black Panther: So do we.
Thor: Thanos is not like any enemy you have faced before. He is ruthless and he will not stop until he has destroyed everything that you hold dear.
Black Panther: We will stop him.
Thor: I hope you can. Because if you cannot, then all is lost.
Eh, looks real enough to me. Fine tune the model with all the specialities that make up Marvel movies and you'll crank out good-enough drafts in no time.
I think that was pretty clear and that posted dialog is a perfect illustration.
You cannot generate the entire movie script coherently without significant human input and that's not going to change in the next several years. So, your initial claim that dialogue is "solved" is indeed false.
Is this like with self-driving cars that were supposed to be a consumer product in 5 years...in 2012?
Or like when Hinton said radiologists will be completely replaced in 5 years...in 2016?
By the way, Moore's law hasn't been a thing for a while in its original spirit.