In two centuries, the labor to produce a kilogram of grain was reduced by 99.7%
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Because eventually "work" will be so unnecessary we will need to redistribute money to people who have nothing to do and now that I put that into words I have realized that is already happening at my country, nevermind.
The problem is twofold. First, there’s a lot of people in the world and bringing them out of poverty increases the economy up to 3 orders of magnitude, e.g. from living on $0.25 a day to living on $250 a day, which can suck up a whole lot of productivity gains.
And secondly, as it turns out, there’s always new places to shift demand when less and less of your budget is required just to subsist.
And then when all those “beyond sustenance” dollars all start chasing the same limited supply of goods, say, a house in the Bay Area, or even a lobster dinner…
Land is the only limiter. Even that is cheap if your willing to live in middle of no where.
For me this is the main point of basic income. If you get to the point where people can't consume enough stuff to keep everyone employed, you end up with a situation with the class that own the means of production not having anyone to sell to, because 'the workers' don't have any income.
In contrast, 10-tons of horse feed will only feed enough horses to carry maybe 10-tons of actual product, depending on distance.
I forget the math exactly, but there's a reason why the horse-to-automobile tranformation only took a decade. The difference between horse-feed and gasoline is completely massive and almost an unfathomable increase in efficiency, due to the ratio of "fuel-per-ton" (ie: horse bread in the 1800s vs gasoline in the modern day).
We first had horses producing far more manure than a city could handle, with all kinds of hygiene/smell/viability consequenses. People complained how cities became unliveable.
Cars fixed all that. No more feed, no more manure, no more raising and keeping alive the animals. All replaced with a very energy dense fuel, a machine you can just leave on the street, and some very clean minimal exhaust.
Then we all got cars.
so by extrapolation, would we need the world to become unliveable before cars gets replaced?
Sure, you can produce the same amount of stuff today with much less effort than it required back then. But we also require more of the same stuff produced and also plenty of stuff that wasn't even possible to produce back then.
That is, if we want to maintain the current standards of living and quality of life (instead of that from two centuries ago). And, turns out, people vastly tend to prefer average standards of living and quality of life from today over those from 1800s.
And I could afford that as a pizza delivery guy 20 years ago.
A raise implies you're richer than someone, but a rising tide seemed to have lifted all boats.
What do you mean when you say "actual wellbeing"?
By actual wellbeing, I mean the subjective experience of overall happiness, as distinct from material possessions.
The second is rather more interesting. By the mid-19th century railroads had connected Europe enough to ensure access to food. People were eating reasonably nutritious fare around 1860-1870.
So what happened? The second industrial revolution also saw the processed foods revolution. Waves of canned, baked, dried, and sugared products descended upon the markets for the first time. They were cheap and tasted good, so people made them staples, not knowing how sick it would make them or their kids. And all the while intensified industry was adding more pollutants, people were smoking more, and the automobile and leaded fuel was just coming on the scene. Thus, the average Edwardian Englishman was quite a bit worse off than his Victorian parents in some measures.
And...it's been 150 years and while we definitely know the risks of this status quo better, we're still dealing with the consequences. The promise of consumerism is always that engaging with the market will make a better life, and countless critiques have been written of this idea. As you say, we don't really know if we're happier. But we can point to material well-being and make educated guesses.
I'm curious -- how can you be so confident in making broad statements about "actual wellbeing" today vs the early modern period? I would have thought at a minimum, a smaller proportion of the population being literate, plus actual costs of paper, ink, light, etc would mean there would be just a lot fewer records of subjective experience of lower class people from the early modern period. And you know ... whose happiness counts? I'd have further expected that half the population having drastically greater liberty today than in the early modern period ought to substantially improve some people's subjective wellbeing even without considering material possessions. Same for the move away from child labor, or child corporal punishment.
I'm guessing no one has 15th century survey data of peasants being asked "on a scale from 1 meaning 'strongly disagree' to 7 meaning 'strongly agree', how would you rate the sentence 'I am happy most days'". And I'm in no way trying to disregard or minimize the possibility that just a different way of living made people better off at some points in the past. But I also think we risk romanticizing or projecting onto past populations.
More modern examples are 'the liberalization of the economy' where we make people who were living on and working the commons for survival and a small surplus to trade farm that same land for a massive surplus for someone else to trade who gives them a small wage which they spend on rent.
We then also bring in pennecillin and if they're really lucky get them to build a sewer and attribute all those benefits to having stolen their land and averaging the income of them and their new absentee overlords.
Bonus points if sale of any grain reserves is also forced and it leads to massive famines.
If your issue was that I picked 1800s specifically, then let me clarify. I stand behind the same statement holding up for any other point in time predating 1800s as well.
Make no mistake, these productivity increases come almost entirely from capital spent, not from labor becoming better at what it does.
If labor wants to justify higher wages, it needs to do so on its own merits, not by piggybacking on the improvements that capital is responsible for, and pretending like that increase in productivity was thanks to them.
Most startups understand this well.
It's basically impossible to bootstrap something with labor alone
It takes skilled labor too, but you can't make most things purely out of skilled labor.
Even a maxist analysis admits that goods are generated with labor plus the means of production. This is a very important point.
Someone with a laptop might be able to route a million times more packages than someone with a notebook and pen.
Take away the laptop representing capital can you get a sense of the labor contribution
> If labor wants to justify higher wages, it needs to do so on its own merits, not by piggybacking on the improvements that capital is responsible for, and pretending like that increase in productivity was thanks to them.
do you have real-life example of how labor can justify a higher wage?Both productive growing and localised growing can exist together.
But it's a pipe dream that 'everybody should do it'.
Some people take this seriously, and want to find ways to move forward (not "back") to find ways of thriving that aren't doomed to fail eventually... When you look at it that way I don't think it's "strange" at all.
It's not about productivity, it's about keeping that productivity while reducing externalities.
We may see billions malnourished within a year.
Additionally, if Russia's gas infrastructure is allowed to freeze over, due to demand restrictions, they might not be able to recover. The last supply disruption (When the Soviet Union collapsed) caused damage that took until 2021 to repair.
Permanent loss of a large fraction of the worlds fertilizer supply is a very real possibility. Much marginal farmland would be lost as a result.
A megacorp running a million acres would be a lot more efficient than a 1000 families running 1000 acre farms but, for various reasons, the system is biased towards the latter.
These Silicon Valley tycoons are trying to “disrupt” agriculture but they aren’t going around telling anyone what they’re up to, just buying up a bunch of land and hoping nobody notices. The political winds will not favor their usual shenanigans.