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Comment by jmnicolas | Hacker News Reader

If the ECB raises interest rates most European nations wouldn't be able to pay their debts. It's an untenable situation, something will have to give.

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But it's nowhere near the braking point, in fact it isn't nearly as bad as the PBOC or, arguably, the BOJ and the FED (per person EU debt is still less than the US), so they definitely still have the option to kick the can down the road.

Ergo, you can safely bet both your kidneys that nothing's going to happen.

It's crazy how hard it is to make 1 European country agree on finances these days, all the EU member nations agreeing to seriously tighten is about as likely as the President of the US declaring he is an alien.

Switching to private pensions is difficult because it would only work for the younger part of the population who would still have enough time to save/invest money for their pension, but the state would still have to finance the pensions for the older half for a couple of decades, without getting fresh money in from the younger half. This is made even more difficult by an aging demographics.

What will have to give is the welfare state. Difficult to see how a retirement age in the early 60's is sustainable given this level of inflation. Better to abandon pensions entirely and just offer disability stipends for those who cannot work due to advanced age.

Returning several million net-negative economic migrants to their home regions would also be necessary.

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