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Comment by texasbigdata | Hacker News Reader

I think the reticence is the old attitude that you basically had to drag the old car manufacturers to electric, then they insisted on doing design after design of the clearly inferior hydrogen alternative, it's hard to take them seriously now that they're just responding to stay relevant / alive. If they really "cared" about EV this would have come 20 years earlier given the sheer scale of endowed resources they had. Of course that's not a fair evaluation of them, but one perspective on how it'd be easy to be cynical.

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> I think the reticence is the old attitude that you basically had to drag the old car manufacturers to electric,

But... that's not really true? Nissan and Renault's first modern electric platforms predate the Tesla Model S. VW's is only slightly newer (and of course it had a few NiCad false starts in the 90s).

> then they insisted on doing design after design of the clearly inferior hydrogen alternative

That's mostly just Toyota.

> If they really "cared" about EV this would have come 20 years earlier given the sheer scale of endowed resources they had

No, it wouldn't. VW and GM, at least, tried in the 90s, but it just wasn't a runner with NiCad batteries. Electric cars were effectively gated on battery tech.

What a bizarre post - the "old" manufacturers have pretty much all released excellent EV cars across the market, many better than Tesla offerings in many ways.

Why the wierd goalpost moving of having to do this 20 years ago?

I'm not really familiar with this market but I'll just quote one article from last week suggesting it's a bit more lopsided than that; things can change quickly obviously.

"Tesla accounts for more than two-thirds of all-electric car registrations (almost 68%), which is a dominant position, but the non-Tesla electric vehicle sales are growing at a similar rate and potentially might outpace Tesla later this year."

If youre outselling everyone else _combined_ that suggests a clear current market winner.

https://insideevs.com/news/604580/us-bev-premium-car-sales-2...

In Europe, Tesla is now at only 5% of total EV sales, and in a not entirely unrelated news the US gov is proposing to exclude EU made cars from the 7500$ EV subsidy.

In 2021, worldwide, Tesla had 21% of the purely electric market and 14% of the plug-in market, down from the previous year's 23% and 16%, respectively.

Source: https://insideevs.com/news/564800/world-top-oem-sales-2021/

Those are US figures. The North American EV market is about one third the size of the European market.

Here are some current European sales percentages:

https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Groups/Line/All-time-by-Y...

Tesla comes in 4th.

And its probably fair to attribute the difference to better governance in the EU, so the top down approach that worked for Tesla wasn't as necessary.

Still useful to have someone targetting Silicon Valley nerds that would otherwise own a Prius and a Porsche though.

Eh, I'm not sure that's true, really. Europe has been a bit more proactive (and consistent) in encouraging electric cars than the US has, but I think a lot of it comes down to market differences:

- Fuel in Europe is on the order of 2x the price vs the US (largely due to low tax on petrol in the US)

- Average European journey in nearly all countries is much shorter than average journey in the US (things are closer together, less cultural tolerance for very long commutes)

- Differing consumer preferences in cars (the US _loves_ large SUVs and pickup trucks, which pose greater challenges to electrification than, say, hatchbacks)

- Electric cars are or at least were a cultural/political issue in the US in a way they're not in Europe. It would be deeply weird to be ideologically opposed to, specifically, electric cars in Europe, but that's quite common in the US.

All of this makes Europe an easier-to-address and safer market for the manufacturers than the US, so they targeted the US _first_. That doesn't mean they weren't interested in the US too. For instance, VW sensibly never released its eUp or eGolf in the US, because there's a tiny market for cars like that there. It also won't release its i3, but it will release its i4, which suits US consumer preferences better.

Incidentally, I think the US does have some _advantages_ as a market for electric cars, too. In particular, it's much more common to have a driveway or garage in the US than in Europe, and this makes at-home charging much easier.

But it's trending up, and they cost 10k more than the most similar VW model (and the difference is worth). But Tesla is totally the Apple of cars where VW is the Samsung.

I think you're looking at the wrong line. Tesla was at 30.77% in 2019, 13.28% in 2020, 13.78% in 2021, and so far in 2022 Tesla is 11.95% of the European EV market.

I was looking at the trend over years, Tesla was high, then low, then it's trending up again. VW is trending down. Nissan was #1 by a massive margin and it's going down into oblivion almost

Eh, no. Tesla has trended down in market share over the five years since 2017.

Ooops, sorry, switched the greens with Hyundai/Kia

Electric car-shaped vehicles are a rounding error comapared to sales of all other types of electric vehicles.

Putting rechargeable batteries into a car form-factor is like strapping a jetpack to a horse. Not the transportation mode of the future.

Tesla is only targeting the “luxury car” market. They don’t stray from Lexus’s or BMW’s footprint and haven’t touched the others lucrative SUV business. That’s a very small niche in the grand scheme of vehicles.

And they’re dodging the largest vehicle market entirely: fleet vehicles. At least a few years ago F-150s outsold all cars. Sprinter vans can’t be produced fast enough to meet demands. These dwarf family vehicles.

Their accomplishment was seeing a market problem and then killing it. Manufacturers were only targeting “city” vehicles or crunchy granola people with hybrids and EVs. Tesla made EVs freaking cool.

Seeing that as evidence that they’re the primary source for all EV innovation, though, doesn’t line up. They have a market targeted and are focused on delivering there. There is work going on with EV fleet vehicles, semis, etc. and they’re not involved.

It’s been about 10 years now, and they’re only making what an “old car company” would consider 1 platform with no sign of expanding. I think they’ll continue to dominate that space, but there’s a lot of innovation required to get outside of that footprint.

If you want to buy an EV today you are looking at months and months of waiting for the car to be produced and delivered. Sales numbers right now reflect production capacity more than demand for a specific brand or model. Tesla is ahead on production capacity.

> If youre outselling everyone else _combined_ that suggests a clear current market winner.

I mean, if you assume the US is the only market which exists, then, yeah, okay? Tesla is third or fourth in Europe and in China, both of which are larger BEV markets than the US, though.

The electric car market has been slower to develop in the US than in Europe and China for a variety of reasons (fuel's cheaper in the US for tax reasons, the average drive is much longer, consumer taste is more oriented towards large SUVs and trucks), but develop it has, and US consumers should soon have about as much choice of electric cards as consumers in other markets.

Fair. Good point.

So, "it's a bit more lopsided than that", "things can change quickly obviously", and "non-Tesla electric vehicle sales are growing at a similar rate and potentially might outpace Tesla later this year", but Tesla is "the clear market winner"?

the "old" manufacturers have pretty much all released excellent EV cars across the market

They are just about getting there as of last year, after 15 years of saying they were going to. e.g. look back at VWs claims about how they were going to be an EV leader back in 2013, vs how long it took them to actually get the ID3/ID4 done.

e.g.

"Volkswagen Group will be the world leader in electric and hybrid cars by 2018, it says.

The bold claim came not from an offhand comment by an executive at this week's Frankfurt Auto Show, but in a press release announcing that the VW Group had set its "sights on market leadership in electric mobility by 2018."

“We are starting at exactly the right time," said Group CEO Martin Winterkorn before the show.

"We are electrifying all vehicle classes, and therefore have everything we need to make the Volkswagen Group the top automaker in all respects, including electric mobility, by 2018."

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1086902_volkswagen-will...

But yes as of now there are a lot of good cars from a lot of manufacturers.

Tesla had to give the industry an almighty kick up the backside to get us here though

Without Tesla all we'd have is stuff like the 2016 Leaf with 100 mile range because 'market research shows people just want an ev for running around town'

> look back at VWs claims about how they were going to be an EV leader back in 2013, vs how long it took them to actually get the ID3/ID4 done.

VW was third in Europe by 2018 (or second, depending on how you view Renault-Nissan), and first by 2020, so... not _that_ huge of a miss, perhaps? The ID3/4 were their second generation; the eGolf and eUp, while far less ambitious, sold pretty well.

Fair enough. Yes by 2020 VW had sorted themselves out.

My point really is that the traditional manufacturers wasted a lot of time faffing about. Lots of glossy promises about the future and not many actual EV cars being made. Possibly internal power struggles. I'm glad things are happening now.

e.g. BMW had the i3 in 2013 which was good for its time, then closed the whole program down and didn't come up with anything new until (correct me if I'm wrong?) last year?

In the UK, until the Jaguar i-Pace launched in 2018, Tesla were the only manufacturer with a 200+ mile range EV. In the States you had the Bolt but that never came to the UK.

But there's a lot of good stuff happening now so I'm happy. FWIW I drive a kia.

BMW focused first on hybrid approaches. Saying they abandoned electric is a bit weird.

(they are one of the only german brands that offer literally every model in a hybrid version, with decent battery packs. I can commute full electric with my hybrid if I charge at work. I drive about 80% full electric. Really only use the engine in the weekend and when using sport mode)

Audi focused on hydrogen and full electric. Hydrogen wasn't the success they hoped it to be. Their gamble for CNG cars also didn't pay off. But at least hydrogen powered cars had electric motors, which is why Audi managed be have the e-tron already in 2018. That is a brilliant car, beats a Tesla in daily use imho, if only it had 100 miles extra range (it has about 200-250). And now they are just limited by chip shortages and battery production for a full electric rollout, same for BMW. The lead times on the i4, iX3 etc.. are ridiculous, 14 to 18 months. So why bother brining out newer models? That's why they stick to hybrid. You can make about 7 hybrids with the scarce resources to produce one full electric.

They did do it 20 years ago. Actually, 25 years ago. GM's EV1 was a car well ahead of its time, even with a decent range, but then it mysteriously disappeared.

This is covered in the documentary "Who Killed the Electric Car" (on Amazon).

So it's not like Elon Musk paved the way for electric cars - he just faced fewer headwinds. And let us not forget, he did not actually found Tesla, he acquired it. The company also barely made it if not for government help at the time of dire need.

Elon Musk, being the storyteller that he is, said once that he was drinking alone at a table in a club (who does that?) all sad due to the state of affairs at Tesla. It did not look like the company was going to make it. Then he was approached by his model future 2nd ex-wife, and the rest was history.

If only all men were living in an episode of Red Shoe Diaries.

> drinking alone in a club (who does that?)

Every single drinking person who has a club to go to and needs to do some thinking, for starters.

Pub I can see, but drowning your sorrows alone in a club is an odd one

"Club" can mean both a private members club with various facilities, including a bar, as well as a place where people party and dance all night to loud music.

That's true, I was going by dance-all-night/loud-music one

He meant the latter

Why try and look for a hidden meaning in something that is obvious? That sounds exhausting.

It's weird enough that Musk claimed he was sad-drinking in a club, but now we are discussing the idea of him sad-drinking in a country club, a place for old, rich, white men who go there to play golf - where he was then approached by a young model?

There are many kinds of club, and there are many reasons to have a drink by yourself, most of which are not about anybody’s sorrows. Maybe you like the music, for example, but aren’t in the mood for company.

But if we want to assume Musk was drowning his sorrows, and that it’s an EDM dance club — this seems to be your implication, maybe it’s true — then I still don’t find it weird. Darkness, distraction, the desire to be among people but also alone, avoiding your entourage… plenty of good reasons.

Hydrogen was mainly Toyota, no German maker for instance made any serious commitments into that technology.

I suppose you mean that Tesla was the dragging force in the EV sector and all others were reluctant until they saw Tesla become successful?

If you look at the timeline of global auto makers putting EVs on the market, that claim is unsubstantiated, they would have been years later if that was true.

I get it though, Tesla is the first product of the American auto sector that is somewhat innovative, after decades of being behind all others. So it’s natural that many Americans are proud of Tesla’s success and will basically defend that pride with their lives. It’s a cult because they and facts the contrary will be seen as an attack.

I think you mean Honda rather than Toyota for hydrogen and fuel cells.

Edit: or at least that was my perception. Doing some Googling it appears that they both have done things.

Hydrogen makes a bit of sense on in Japan.

You've got an island - people aren't driving their cars to other countries from Japan so you can build out the entirety of the refuting system with a smaller area (the long axis of Japan is comparable in distance from San Diego to Seattle - https://acme.com/same_scale/#41.30257,-121.06934,38.07404,13... ).

The second thing about being on an island is that importing oil is expensive.

So, the problem of energy storage for vehicles... plugins are one option. Hydrogen is another.

Hydrogen is still something that they're looking at for Japan and it makes sense in that environment.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/18/toyota-ramps-up-efforts-to-l...

I'll also point out in that article:

> Toyota started working on the development of fuel-cell vehicles — where hydrogen from a tank mixes with oxygen, producing electricity — back in 1992. In 2014, it launched the Mirai, a hydrogen fuel cell sedan. The business says its fuel cell vehicles emit “nothing but water from the tailpipe.”

Consider where the high capacity battery technology in '92 was.

For cars the Galapagos effect on cars gives us a hydrogen fuel cell focus. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galápagos_syndrome

I don't believe the research into fuel cell designs for Japanese car makers was a mistake and it likely is still a good idea for Japan and other island countries to have a hydrogen refueling system.

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