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Comment by greenthrow | Hacker News Reader

This article does not support its clickbait headline with much in the way of facts. "Analysts estimate" that Apple's ad revenue could drastically increase. Insiders talk of a reorganization. There might be ads included in more apps. The headline makes a major assertion the body does not support.

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I found it useful conjecture. It presents evidence and states the conclusions it draws, with appropriate disclaimers. Based on the facts, the conclusions are not unreasonable.

- Apple has kneecapped ads from competitors, this is acknowledged fact

- Apple services revenue has grown significantly since, which includes ad revenue, this is acknowledge fact (to the SEC no less)

- Apple does not disclose ad revenue as proportion of services revenue, but it's reasonable to think it would grow as well

Digital marketers have personally told me app install ads and the like on Facebook are no longer effective, so we'd expect those dollars to move to other areas.

Article says Apple is adding ads, and they will benefit from data their competitors now do not have. What else is there to support?

There is nothing to support, because it is all conjecture. That is the problem.

This is the source the Axios page links to, which is just a Bloomberg writer postulating what Apple might do.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-08-14/apple-...

Moreover, the chart of 2021 ad revenue shows Facebook at $114B, Apple at $4B. The article text says Facebook worries Apple’s changes could cost them $10B, less than 10% of their 2021 ad revenue and more than double Apple’s total.

The narrative doesn’t match the numbers.

>The narrative doesn’t match the numbers.

Yet, just look at Amazon's if you want to see how fast it can grow. Or how the app tracking prompt popup compares for their own (pretty CTA for "Yes personalized ads please!") vs third parties ("Oh no I don't want spyware!").

I'm sure they can increase revenue but I'm not sure how Apple can build an ad empire by adding more ads to its own apps.

Apple canned their mobile ad platform and compared with Alphabet and Meta who's ads are peppered all over the web/search/facebook/instagram - the amount of impressions would be miniscule.

Analysts and insider leaks are the best we are going to get.

Are you expecting to have an official Apple press release be quoted?

How else are they supposed to report on this if Apple is not even disclosing the revenue they get from advertising? Expert analysis and anonymous sources seem like the most journalistically diligent path they have.

Do we just not report on Apple's ads because they choose not to provide us with first hand information?

With facts, research, leaked documents.

It’s Axios, vapid political clickbait is kind of their thing.

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