Artificial general intelligence (AGI) — in other words, systems that could successfully perform any intellectual task that a human can.
Not in my lifetime, not in this millennium. Possibly in the year 2,300.
Weird way to blow $20 million.
Not in my lifetime, not in this millennium. Possibly in the year 2,300.
Weird way to blow $20 million.
AGI could quite literally shift any job to automation. This is human-experience changing stuff.
that's one way of putting it
it will remove the need for the vast majority of the population, which will end extremely badly
With AGI that is no longer true, they can just replace most people with computers and automated combat drones while they keep a small number of personal servants to look after them. Currently most jobs either is there to support other humans or can be replaced by a computer, remove the need for humans and all of those jobs just disappear and leaders no longer care about having lots of people around.
but human(oid) intelligence is still scarce, and they don't have AGI (other than Data)
there is however a society that has no need for humanoid intelligence, and that's the Dominion
and I suspect that is what our society would turn into if AGI is invented (and not the Federation)
I almost regret being at this phase of life where we are aware of what's possible but we most likely not see it in our lifetime. This AGI talk, colonization of space, etc... but can strive towards it/have fun trying in the meantime.
Basically, they could completely fail to advance AGI (and I think this is what will happen btw, like you) and make gigabucks.
You can argue they're wrong, but there is absolutely a general consensus that AGI is going to be this generation.
Given development in language models in the last 2 years he may have a decent chance at winning that bet.
People give him 65% chance [0] and by now there are only 7 years left.
[0] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/computer-passes-tur...
Now, the question of whether we are going to have AGI is incredibly broad. So I am going to split it into two smaller ones: - Are we going to have enough compute by year X to implement AGI. Note that we are not talking about super intelligence or singularity here. This AGI might be below human intelligence and incredibly uneconomical to run. - Assuming we have enough compute, will we a way to get AGI working.
The compute advancements scale with new Chip Fabs linearly and tech node improvements exponentially. I think it is reasonable for compute to get cheaper and more accessible throughout at least 2030. I expect this because TSMC is starting 3nm node production, Intel is decoupling fabing and chip design (aka TSMC model), and the strategic investments into into chap manufacturing driven by supply chain disruptions. See https://www.tomshardware.com/news/tsmc-initiates-3nm-chips-p...
How much compute do we need? This is hard to estimate, but amount of human connections in human brain is estimated at 100 trillion, that is 1e14. Current largest model has 530B parameters, that is 5.3e11: https://developer.nvidia.com/blog/using-deepspeed-and-megatr... . That is factor of 500 or 9 doublings off. To get there by 2040 we would need a doubling every 2 years. This is slower that recent progress, but past performance does not predict future results. Still, I believe getting models with 1e14 parameters by 2040 is possible for tech giants. I believe it is likely that a model with 1e14 parameters is sufficient for AGI if we know how structure and train it.
Will we know how to structure and train it? I think is mostly driven by investment into the AI field. More money means more people and given the venture beat link above the investment seems to be accelerating. A lot of that investment will be unprofitable, but we are not looking to make a profit - we are looking for breakthroughs and larger model sizes. Self-driving, stock trading, and voice controls are machine learning applications which are currently deployed in the real world. At the very least it is reasonable to expect continuous investment to improve those applications.
Based on the above I believe we would need to mess things up royally to not get AGI by 2100. Remember this could be below human and super uneconomical AGI. I am rather optimistic, so my personal prediction is that we have 50% chance to get AGI by 2040 and 5-10% chance of getting there by 2030.