Ukraine’s #1 trading partner was Russia, and Russia’s #3 trading partner was Ukraine.
I remember reading the same argument in the 90s, and it seemed to have a lot of merit. But, experience shows us that it’s not correct.
I remember reading the same argument in the 90s, and it seemed to have a lot of merit. But, experience shows us that it’s not correct.
Putin called it a "special military operation" for a reason. It was supposed to be like Czechoslovakia in 1968. The troops go in, reach Kyiv in a few days, and take over without any real fighting. Ukraine was not supposed to be able and willing to resist. Russian military didn't even know there was going to be a war, which is why it failed so catastrophically in the first days.
The outcome of this war is going to determine whether international trade is still an effective deterrent. If Russian economy depends so much on Western technology that they will lose in the long term regardless of the oucome of the war, this was just the exception that tests the rule. If the West gives up and resumes trading with Russia, the deterrent will be gone.