Hacker News Reader

Comment by mytailorisrich | Hacker News Reader

> but there's almost no way China and Russia would win such a war

For any sensible definitions of 'win', there's also no way the US can win against China, or even Russia. Both China and Russia are impossible to successfully invade and they both have nuclear weapons (same applies to the US).

These 3 countries do not want to go to war against each others and they won't. As the WOPR once wisely concluded, the only winning move is not to play.

So every time the US 'flex their muscles' over Ukraine or Taiwan we pretty much know that this is rhetorics and that they won't actually intervene directly.

Edit: I'm bowing in shame and have corrected WOPR (not Whopper). Thanks @jgrahamc.

View on HN

I can’t leave “Whopper” uncorrected. It’s WOPR and stands for War Operation Plan Response.

The problem with war is that you lose control of the situation extremely fast.

Whether the countries want to go to war doesn’t matter when a bluff that isn’t a bluff is called.

Being sure that nobody else would intervene directly in Ukraine is why the Russians could do on a nationwide scale what nobody thought they would do: bombing every building civilian homes, malls, schools and hospitals is unheard of, at least when done on purpose and on a such large scale. What i find disgusting is that we're slowly adapting to it, and the Russians know that. However, it is possible that if China invades Taiwan, that event could trigger also an intervention against Russia, at least if one takes for granted that in a direct US vs China conflict, they would quickly escalate to nuclear and Russia would be sucked in as well.

The firebombing of Dresden was done on purpose.

> bombing every building civilian homes, malls, schools and hospitals is unheard of...

I have read that this exact strategy was used successfully and quite recently by Russia in most of its previous conflicts, most notably the complete destruction of Grozny in the 1990's[1], not to mention the bombings in WWII with were completely indiscriminate from both sides, so I think you're just uninformed, with all due respect.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Grozny_(1994%E2%80%9...

I knew about the bombings of Dresden (Berlin, Hamburg etc.) in WWII and Grozny; what I meant was the extension of the bombings in Ukraine: the Russians bombed pretty much every city in the center, south and west regions, including lots of villages of no or little military importance.

So instead we see endless proxy wars where these three powers use other countries as battlegrounds killing other people.

My half Ukrainian wife says that the US is willing to fight the war in Ukraine until the last Ukrainian.

And Russia is willing to fight it to the last Dagestani, Ossetian etc.

The fact that USA is doing anything for Ukraine is astounding all in itself.

Russia is not even a remote threat to USA, besides nuclear weapons.

Russia is a threat to Europe - Ukraine, Georgia, Baltics, Poland, Finland, Kazahstan.

And still Germany and France would be happy to give up Ukraine whole to Russia if not for USA.

Germany was happily making itself dependent on Russia and paying Russia to modernize their army. Germany was even bypassing their own sanctions after 2014 to deliver weapons components to Russia that are now being found in wrecks in Ukraine. All while Germany is deeply relaying on USA for defense from Russia. It's crazy that USA was so chill about it until Trump.

As a Pole born and raised 40km from Kaliningrad oblast it's really weird that I trust USA more than I do Germany, France, Italy etc.

Yeah, completely agree. European countries are almost helpless without USA's weapons to defend them... they just thought they were too civilized to go to war again anytime soon, I guess, letting the USA bear the burden of actually investing in the military while they just did the bare minimum. But the situation between Russia and Germany is more complicated than that... Germany did not see Russia as the enemy as far as I see it even after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The large dependencies on Russian gas/oil/coal/etc that Germany incurred make sense when you consider that... they had a weird kind of debt to Russia for helping remove the Nazis from power and were working under the assumption that the only way to keep a big neighbour from trying to destroy you is to keep friendly relations with them, which I find is the right approach even when sometimes that doesn't work too well. The alternative of always seeing the big neighbour as a threat and with utmost suspicion (I guess that's Poland the and the Baltic states approach, as well as most of Ukraine after the Orange Revolution) is bound to lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy as that's obviously going to lead to hostilities with enough time (just try that with your suburban neighbours).

When a country is trying very hard to delete you from existence for hundreds of years it's very hard to not be suspicious of that country. Poland lost 20% of population in WWII started by Germany and Soviet Russia. Every fifth person dead.

You may also notice that Poland and Ukraine are on perfectly friendly terms with Germany. Because Germany came to terms with Nazism and Holocaust.

But Russia never gave up on their imperialism. It wasn't even until 2011 that Russia admitted that Stalin ordered Katyń Massacre despite clear and direct orders in Russian archives.

It's really hundreds of years of Russia trying to subjugate us. Russia partitioned Poland in 1795. We've been subject to forced russification. Despite many brutally crashed uprisings and revolutions we did not regain independence for 123 years. Then after WWI we got almost immediately plunged in war with Soviet Union due to unsettled borders and them wanting to spread communist revolution to the west. Then we got attacked by both Germans and Soviets in 1939. Last Russian soldiers left Poland in 1993.

Behavior of Russian soldiers did not change from WWII till this day. What my grandmother lived trough during WWII is happening now in Ukraine. Senseless killing of civilians and mass rapes of women and children. That's exactly what my grandmother remembers.

It's not a self-fulfilling prophecy. It's like telling a women beaten by a husband that she did not make enough attempt at appeasing him.

Even damn Pushkin "To the Slanderers of Russia" from 1831 describes Russian attitude today very well.

  Why rave ye, babblers, so — ye lords of popular wonder?
  Why such anathemas ‘gainst Russia do you thunder?
  What moves your idle rage? Is’t Poland’s fallen pride?
  ‘T is but Slavonic kin among themselves contending,
  An ancient household strife, oft judged but still unending,
  A question which, be sure, you never can decide.

  Which shall stand fast in such commotion
  The haughty Liakh, or faithful Russ?
  And shall Slavonic streams meet in a Russian ocean? –
  Or il’t dry up? This is point for us.

  Leave us!: Your eyes are all unable
  To read our history’s bloody table;

  Ye’re bold of tongue — but hark, would ye in deed but try it
  Or is the hero, now reclined in laurelled quiet,
  Too weak to fix once more, Izmail’s red bayonet?
  Or hath the Russian Tsar ever, in vain commanded?
  Or must we meet all Europe banded?
  Have we forgot to conquer yet?

https://russianuniverse.org/2014/09/24/slanderers-of-russia/

Even what you read in poems like Reduta Ordona from 1832 after November Uprising could very well describe today. Just replace Polish references with Ukrainian:

https://www.poemhunter.com/poem/my-tribute-to-adam-mickiewic...

  When Turks beyond the Balkans are threatened by your bronze,
  When the Paris legation lick the feet of yours, -
  Warsaw alone your power hurls abuse at,
  Raises its hand on you and takes off the ‘hat',
  The crown of Kazimierz, Chrobry Dynasty of your head,
  Because you son of Wasil, have stolen it and with blood stained!

  The tsar is surprised - the Petersburg men shiver in fear,
  The tsar gets angry - out of fear die his courtiers;
  But the armies pour, who's God and faith
  The tsar is - angry tsar: we die, we'll amuse him.

> Poland lost 20% of population in WWII started by Germany and Soviet Russia. Every fifth person dead.

Germany started the war. The Soviet Union was forced into it much later by Germany declaring war on them.

> Poland lost 20% of population in WWII

No country lost more people in WWII than the Soviet Union, as I'm sure you're aware. Your feelings of huge loss are shared by the Russians.

> You may also notice that Poland and Ukraine are on perfectly friendly terms with Germany.

It's just because Germany left Polan much longer than the Soviet Union did. With time, you'll also "forgive" the Soviet Union, their crimes pale in comparison with the Germans.

> It's really hundreds of years of Russia trying to subjugate us.

Poland has been occupied by many other countries[1]. It was Prussia and the Autro-Hungray Empires that occupied it for the longest, not Russia... that's how European politics always played out, a big struggle for smaller states living between the bigger ones... why single out Russia? Probably only because it was the latest invader and memroy from previous occupations is fading.

Do you really believe being hostile to Russia will somehow be benefitial to Poland in the longer term?... if history is anything to go by, you should watch both West and East of your border while trying to stay "friendly", or at least neutral, in relations with both.

[1] https://brilliantmaps.com/invaded-poland/

Soviet Russia STARTED WWII together with Germany. They agreed it with Germans.

Soviets attacked Poland on 17th September 1939. Their army and tanks crossed Polish border.

Then they shook hands with Germans and proceeded to annex Poland.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_invasion_of_Poland

Then NKVD proceeded to exterminate Polish military officers and intelligentsia during the Katyń Massacre.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre

The goal was to destroy Polish state.

> Do you really believe being hostile to Russia will somehow be benefitial to Poland in the longer term?

We deal with the Russia the way it is. Not the way we would want it to be.

Russia is hostile towards us first and foremost.

And personally, I wouldn't be more happy if Russians had the balls to clean up their mess.

Kick Putin and his siloviki out and start normal productive participation in the world.

> why single out Russia?

Because Russia is waging a freaking war with Ukraine right now and threatening nuclear holocaust to Poland?!

Like WTF?!

> The goal was to destroy Polish state.

Are you sure? From your link:

"The reason for the massacre, according to the historian Gerhard Weinberg, was that Stalin wanted to deprive a potential future Polish military of a large portion of its talent".

Also, if they wanted to destroy the Polish state, they probably would have then as Poland had no way to defend itself at the time.

> Because Russia is waging a freaking war with Ukraine right now and threatening nuclear holocaust to Poland?!

> Like WTF?!

Exactly. If you believe Russia is threatening nuclear holocaust and has an agenda to destroy all Poles for whatever reason, I can see how you would be prepared to do anything in your power to destroy them, perhaps kill off every one in their country, because that would be justified if your aprehensions are true.

That makes me scared for the future of Europe because this sort of hatred is bound to, one day, blow up again, sooner than most think (as it's doing now in Ukraine).

Yes of course. And why not? As long as the Ukrainians are willing to fight then it makes total sense to support them. It doesn't cost very much relative to our defense budget. The losses Russia is suffering will take them many years to rebuild, and will temporarily eliminate them as a conventional threat to our allies in the region. We get to see whether our weapons actually work or need improvements. And we are partially rebuilding our reputation as a reliable international partner after the debacle in Afghanistan.

If the Ukrainians don't want to fight the war then they can surrender at any time.

Where’s China proxywarring?

Wars in Vietnam, Korea, Central America, Syria, just to name a few.

When did the US 'flex their muscles' over Ukraine? There was absolutely zero talk of the US/NATO directly intervening militarily in Ukraine.

As for Taiwan, it's an unknown and if you claim otherwise, you're doing it based on nothing. Biden has clearly and repeatedly stated that the US would defend Taiwan. Not saying the US actually wants to, maybe it's just a deterrent. However, if China does attack and the US backs off, that would mean the end of American supremacy regardless.

>There was absolutely zero talk of the US/NATO directly intervening militarily in Ukraine.

NPR hosted the former commander of NATO who called for the US to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine, to include shooting down Russian jets. Numerous Senators and Congressmen backed one as well.

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/03/1084310587/former-nato-comman...

Yeah but the U.S. didn't do that, did they?

The assertion was "zero talk" of such intervention, my point is that there quite a lot of public and private discussion on the matter. Yes, Biden ultimately shot down the idea (thankfully). Unsettling to me that it picked up enough steam where he felt he had to make a statement on it.

> Biden has clearly and repeatedly stated that the US would defend Taiwan

And he was rebutted by the White House when it looked like he meant that the US would intervene militarily

No-one doubts that the US would help, e.g. by supplying intelligence, weapons, etc. as they do now. But they would not send troops and they would not engage (nice word to mean 'attack') the Chinese.

That's an open question, and the reality is that you have no clue what will really happen. Most likely the US would intervene militarily at some level with sea and air attacks, perhaps a blockade.

No, we have a good idea of what will happen and the US have always given clues in their actions (which have been to help but to never commit to intervene because, well, they know they won't...)

> Most likely the US would intervene militarily at some level with sea and air attacks

That's extremely unlikely to inconceivable because, again, the USA are not going to start a war with China because there's no path to winning, only to nuclear annihilation.

Both sides know that. Both sides will not attack each other whatever happens.

Exactly limited warfare maybe to keep each other behind red lines. It’s bad though because sometimes there are mistakes and escalation

Reply on news.ycombinator.com