Constructive and obsessive criticism in science
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Among many others, Thomas Kuhn makes for a great introduction to stepping back and looking at science from that sociological perspective, and Paul Feyerabend — respected but controversial - anticipated exactly the sort of challenges we see surfacing today.
All those scientists hounded for 'faking' climate change. Did they ever get compensated for that? If not then we've basically created a situation where it's fairly cheap to harass people who do science that will affect your bottom line.
Given the recent Alex Jones ruling, I can't help notice a parallel there. Is an online mob of people with mental problems the best new way to censor information and discourage scientific oversight?
What you mean by this? Do you think his audience has mental problems, or...? If yes, then what percentage of his audience, etc.
EDIT: Just to add: I'm emphatically NOT defending this a-hole, but I'm interested in what we can say about his acolytes.
Don't need all of the audience to have issues of any sort to have some of them... do things. Sometimes the reach of "information" sucks.
> (in "diagnostic criteria") Lack of track record of field-specific skills and sufficient field-specific technical expertise
So it's a closed club: "You're not one of us, so you're not allowed to criticize us"
> (in "diagnostic criteria") Argumentum ad populum: claiming, without evidence, that most scientists disagree or believe the work is harmful
Almost everyone on both sides seems to do this. Claiming that there's a "scientific consensus" usually only means that contrary views are refused by the leading journals.
Real consensus only emerges over years or decades. The big bang theory only became consensus when all the other theories had failed.
All the way through I felt like they might have been talking about anti-vaxx 'scientists', especially when they mentioned 'cancelling' and cited someone who was very anti-lockdown, but they managed to keep it general enough I couldn't be sure which side they ware taking.
Science should serve an advisory role in public decision making, not act as a load-bearing structure. Science involves argument, full consensus is never achieved, and "it's only a model, really." (maybe science-communicators need to start repeating this like investing companies -- "investment involves risk, past returns don't guarantee blah blah blah...")
Things have context. Without that context you have no real idea what you are agreeing with or supporting. If someone is intentionally hiding that context then it's probably for a bad reason.
This article appears to be talking about the attack on the science community from outsiders, both political and otherwise, with or without support of members of the community.
I linked to the response sections instead of the paper because the paper is boring.
I don't get what's with folks getting stuff related to covid very wrong—which is fine! Practically everyone was wrong about it at one point or another!—but then doubling down on their position when it's crystal clear they were wrong, instead of owning up to it and moving on. They do it to the point of completely wrecking their reputations and making having-been-wrong-about-covid-but-being-in-denial their entire public persona, as in this case. Why? Why do that?
The bit where he was insulting the appearance of a grad student, at length, in a goddamn peer reviewed paper—I mean, damn dude, how do you not realize you're fucking up when you start heading down that path? What must be going wrong with someone for them to look back at that writing and go, "yep, nailed it, time to submit, this is definitely gonna convince people"?
Travellers are both highly motivated to lie about their current covid status (e.g. plane tickets, hotels, vacation days) and also very likely to be actively moving through and about multiple communities instead of quarantining on arrival. This should never have been a political issue because it's an easy, obvious testing checkpoint with clear scientific support.
These problems can be plausibly grouped into (1) investigation of the origin, (2) effectiveness of masking, and (3) effectiveness of the vaccines.
With respect to the origin, it's plausible that the Wuhan lab (funded in part by the US government via Ecohealth alliance) was the point origin of the pandemic. The natural zoonotic origin theory, however, was trumpted by the experts for months as the only possible explanation, and critics were silenced and targeted by the establishment media and leading academics in the field. Currently, lab leak theories are of three types: (a) the lab collected a wild-type virus from a remote region (southern China/border perhaps) and it escaped from the lab, (b) the lab cultivated that virus in bats and genetically modified mice, which increased its virulence via serial passage, and then it escaped, and (c) the lab modified the viral genome directly by inserting sequences into the cell-binding domain (the furin issue) using a CRISPR strategy (developed in the USA some years previously) which allowed it to jump easily to humans. Most rational people disregard claims that this was some deliberate release. Refusal to investigate all this immediately was a major failure of the scientific establishment. See the book 'Viral' by Ridley & Chan for a comprehensive discussion.
With respect to masking, there was a lot of contradictory messaging along with a lack of any convincing studies on effectiveness, plus a lot of politicization of the issue. The most solid conclusion is that people infected with respiratory pathogens should wear masks to prevent infecting others. Note that for many years, this has been the social norm in, for example, Japan. Note also that handwashing is just as important for stopping transmission, but for some reason that never became a political 'red-vs-blue' flashpoint.
Finally, the effectiveness of the vaccines was oversold. The rapid rise of mutations was certainly a confounding factor (i.e. the vaccines may have been more effective against initial strains), but they were promoted as polio/smallpox/MMR type vaccines, i.e. once vaccinated chances of getting infected and spreading the disease were supposed to be essentially zero. It turns out the vaccines are more like flu shots, only partially effective. Vaccinated people can be asymptomatic carriers and spreaders of Covid-19. This created quite a bit of distrust, and may have impacted the other issue, claims about prevalence and severity of side effects of vaccination (smallpox vaccine had more severe side effects, but was also much more effective, so...). There's also many suspicions about the profit motive of the vaccine manufacturers, particularly with respect to pushing the boosters and the necessity of vaccinating the under-18 and young-adult population. Additionally, the effectiveness of post-infection 'natural immunity' was never really examined in the context of the necessity of vaccination for such individuals.
The scientific and medical response to Covid wasn't all bad, of course, people did a lot of hard work in an effort to stop it, but these failures and errors certainly stand out. There was a kind of paternalistic flavor to the public messaging as well, as if people were too stupid to handle the facts and complexities, which led to distrust. Also the 'stay in your lane' theme of this article is a bit offbase, you don't need to be a working expert in immunology and virology to be capable of seeing these problems (my working academic background is in microbiology and molecular biology, for example).