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What the OP is saying is you could have phrased your comment like you did in your last paragraph here.

Nobody disagrees that until it ends the situation will create further instability; but it can end with Russia giving up or surrendering as well. There is no global objective truth that Russia will not surrender; so by saying "I'm just stating facts" you're actually making a normative claim instead of a descriptive one; which can be viewed as problematic.

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It is common and reasonable to exclude unlikely if conditions from statements.

They are just claiming that Russian concession is much less likely than a Ukrainian one, which I think many would agree with.

How about:

If the war in Ukraine continues, we can expect less food production and potential oil disruption to center Europe.

No need to comment on how to get to this outcome, or thoughts about who will make a concession leading to a big conversation away from the main point of what you were trying to say.

Keep the if statement about exactly matters, not a secondary effect/cause.

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