Avg gasoline prices are down 20% in 2 months. Is that noise?
Maybe the prices stay low, but with Europe warning of fuel shortages this winter, I can't see that happening.
I believe the plan in case of shortage is to reduce the amount of natural gas flowing to power plants, and to make do with whatever alternatives for electricity are readily available (which is probably coal, although maybe nuclear decommissioning will be staved off).
But oil (&coal) may be bought to generate electricity (to replace gas, not for heating but for electricity production. Some European countries such as Germany are heavily reliant on gas for electricity production), and that may still drive petrol up
Much of this period, the spot price of oil was high, but oil for delivery 6-12 months out was much less expensive. The SPR could sell into the spot market but buy oil for delivery 6-12 months out. This actually could mean a much more sustained drop.