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Comment by xedrac | Hacker News Reader

> if Ukraine doesn’t surrender

I think you mean if Russia doesn't surrender. If Ukraine was to surrender, we'd have bigger problems than an increase in beef costs. I don't see any universe where Russia wins this war.

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You should read reports by actual experts instead of media.

The RUSI - Royal United Services Institute - is a leading UK military institute that had boots on the ground assessing the situation. Here is their assessment. https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-r...

"At present, however, several Russian advantages and Ukrainian weaknesses are leading to an attritional conflict that risks a protracted war, eventually favouring Russia."

And here's the companion podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/a-turning-point-in-ukr...

It will tell you a lot of things, including that Ukraine's losses are far higher than the general public estimates, as Ukraine successfully hid/minimized the awareness of its losses from phase 1 of the war.

I also recommend the War on the Rocks podcast with Michael Kofman, whose assessment of the situation is also not too rosy.

I am extremely pro ukraine. But that's the reality. At the moment Russia is winning and Ukraine is losing, just very slowly.

I remember day 1 of the war when 4-star generals where on TV saying Ukraine was going to get rolled.

It seems to me that they are right about the "attritional conflict that risks a protracted war" part, but that the ability to accurately forecast the outcome of such a war is extremely limited. If one side were winning easily and quickly, it would be easy to predict the outcome. With a long tug of war conflict, forecasting is much less useful.

You're right. That's the current situation on the ground, but RUSI certainly can't predict the future, and they do suggest that with increased deliveries of Western weaponry, it's possible Ukraine will succeed.

This will be over in a few days"- the"einxperts" in February

Problem is that in the current situation Russia surrendering would imply a regime change or at the very least very heavy turmoil within Russia. Since this isn't a regime that will let itself get toppled without trying almost everything, there will likely be an escalation before Russian surrender is actually something that is visible on the horizon, which does not bode well for anyone. Sucks for it to be this way, but having an autocratic regime with imperial ambitions sit on a huge proportion of the world's commodities means you really pay for not appeasing them.

I think you should try broadening your media bubble. There's many, many scenarios.

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