Good, now buy my Twitter shares at 54.20 so I can move on with my life.
1. it's a lot more likely that you're going to lose 5% than make 100% (in reality you're making more like 20%, because the stock won't go to 0 if the deal doesn't go through). The bet will actually look something like 20% to make 20% or 80% to lose 5%. The expectation of that is 0.
2. For many names borrow fees will shoot up and there will be limited availability to short. So you'll have to take that into account. The fees can get particularly painful if the deal drags on for a long time.
Hence, theta.
The current price is $42. If you need money, sell some portion of it.
$42 is probably a fair risk-adjusted price as the board will likely ultimately settle for a lower sale price to avoid a very public litigation about its true bot content.
Don't look at $54.29 as the "correct" price. Evaluate the spectrum of probabilistic outcomes.