Ask HN: Why are incumbents so slow to embrace electric drivetrain technology? | Hacker News Reader

Ask HN: Why are incumbents so slow to embrace electric drivetrain technology?

5 pointsvoisin11 comments

Given Tesla’s success and clear demand for an EV option, why are incumbents in the car, boat, ATV, and tractor industries so slow to embrace this technology? As a consumer it seems like there are rarely any options among incumbents and so the only way to go electric in a wide range of industries is to make a large purchase from a startup that may or may not exist in a few years and doesn’t have any of the widespread dealer support that incumbents have built. What is taking them so long?

For example: John Deere announced an electric tractor in… 2016. It’s now 2022 and this tractor is still nowhere to be found. It’s the same everywhere I look. Options to go electric are seemingly as limited today as they have ever been in everything but cars (and even then it is only marginally better).

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I don't follow tractor makers (except I'm stoked about the possible return of the Scout, from VW ownership of the remnants of International Harvester), so I dunno what's going on there... But it's not as if incumbent car makers haven't made EVs. The EV Ford Ranger 1998-2002, s-10 EV 97-98, EV1 96-99, and Rav4 1997-2003 all happened. Those didn't work out so well, so they stopped for a while.

Now they're making EVs again. But they don't want to over commit to EVs and have inventory left over. There's also battery supply issues. Otoh, some models are made with modular drivetrains and could be built as an ICE, a hybrid, a PHEV, or even an EV with poor range, so if dealer orders change, they can adapt.

Two reasons:

1. The R&D required to do so greatly reduces short-term profits, which is all a lot of executives seem to care about

2. Electric motors need a lot less service than engines do, which means the loss of a big revenue stream for them

3. An electric tractor with current tech batteries is inconvenient because it makes a tractor a lot heavier without providing a measurable benefit to work performance. A heavier tractor stresses the ground more.

4. You can fill an ICE tractor with a full tank of gas in about 10-15 minutes to get through the whole day. An electric tractor with current tech needs to get charged multiple times a day - impossible to use for time dependent farm work like harvesting.

They're going to have to get there sooner or later, because many countries are already announcing phase-outs and bans of fossil fuel vehicles in the coming decades.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic...

And it's actually a general rule: in many cases incumbents tend to lag behind new players, not just in this case with fossil fuels. (They have a first-mover DISadvantage, if you will)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_the_handicap_of_a_head_...

For any vehicle that goes in the wilderness or even just off road, an ICE drivetrain works better, because (apart from being lighter), if something goes wrong, you might run out of fuel (example, you get lost and you eventually run out of fuel). Then it is much easier to source some fuel, than it would be to recharge or tow a vehicle with an EV drivetrain. And as a preventative measure, it is also easier to increase your vehicle's range by carrying more fuel on board with you.

Sure, if there was a will, a lot of vehicles and journeys could be accomplished with a EV drivetrain, however, not without compromises.

So really, I do not think there is demand at this point.

See my response to a sibling comment. I don’t believe lack of demand is the explanation.

Because the energy density sucks. I bought an electric weed wacker today. I was very excited to use it. But I only got through 1/5 of what I needed to before the battery died. And now I’m still waiting for it to charge. An electric tractor is great in theory, but probably compresses the soil too much due to all the battery weight and dies too early to be useful.

Would be interesting to see the finances for a large farming operation, but I would guess the fuel costs are probably not a major expense vs the cost of the machinery itself and the impact of not being able to run it all day with quick refuelling.

Batteries have no where near the energy density of fossil fuels.

You end up paying just to carry the batteries around - wasteful.

And until electricity generation is 100% clean, electric not helpful for climate, either.

This answer would be the answer if it meant there was no demand for electric versions of these products, but there’s tons of demand. You can search “electric [insert product]” and see people clamouring for it and waitlists for the startups trying to break into the field with electric. The incumbents though, are asleep at the switch.

Perhaps from your perspective there is “tons of demand” due to what you read on the internet. Perhaps that amount of demand won’t move the needle at Ford, say, or another incumbent.

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