PredictIt is shutting down after CFTC withdraws no-action letter
predictit.org
predictit.org
this suggests to me that you needed to spend that money periodically as it was made, for your lifestyle, and/or that there was a maximum trade size for possible (or just for your risk tolerance)
Yes, thats the point and promise of all prediction markets at any pitiful size.
I'm not seeing how this response addresses the limitation of them. They're not big enough and have had decades to subvert that. Instead its just stupid binary questions for events that frequently are not binary, the questions/markets are unilaterally posted with no analysis of whether it is a binary-enough event. Liquidity is fragmented, there are no market makers helping - from what I can tell - and market makers shouldn't appear with the broken structure of the markets and questions and arbitration of outcomes to begin with. And then, the profit is limited to just the binary option maximums, compared to an actual option with unlimited upside. A trader running an AI bot should just stick with stocks and shares and commodities then.
Prediction markets do not succeed well in monetizing events. They're a broken half measure.
* 2022 French Presidential Election Markets (I haven't looked at these too closely that maybe there's a reason they're still listed as "current" on the IEM site, but wasn't this election back in April?)
* 2022 U.S. Congressional Control Markets (3 Markets: Senate, House, and Overall)
If you're trying to use prediction market prices as a gauge of the state of the world, IEM is missing dozens of countries, does not give visibility into US state-level elections, and does not include the result of primaries or political events besides elections that nonetheless impact elections. The 2024 US Presidential election is not even on the radar yet there.
Credit where credit is due for the trailblazing, they're worth a look when they do have a market on an event going, and it's notable for being sort-of a proof of concept for prediction markets. But while IEM may now be the best fit within a particular niche in light of what's happened to PredictIt, it's not in the same league.