Quaise Energy is working to create geothermal wells
news.mit.edu
news.mit.edu
For context, to provide the electricity demand for kansas would require about 35% of the total geothermal flux into kansas. New Jersey's electricity demand is 7 times higher than what its geothermal heat flux could provide. For the whole US, electricity consumption is about 75% of geothermal heat flux if you ignore variations like the yellowstone hotspot.
Geothermal certainly makes sense in certain locations where the heat flux is high and other power sources are problematic - for example iceland is probably the most ideal spot on earth. The technology for extracting geothermal power may also be useful for future efforts to control volcanism (though at this point such plans are highly speculative), so research is warranted. But it is unlikely to ever be more than a minor slice of the world's energy supply, and certainly anyone claiming to solve the issue by just digging deeper is selling snake oil.
It would be great if you can provide a bit more details on those assumptions. Thanks
In reality electricity capacity needs to meet peak demand, not average demand, the heat flux in continental crust is more like 65 mW/m^2, and the thermal to electric conversion efficiency is going to be closer to 40%, so the situation is actually much worse for geothermal, but maybe with the right technological developments and implementation you could get better performance.
It is mainly addressing winter heating rather than summer cooling (the cooling degree days are rather minimal - https://okotoks.weatherstats.ca/charts/cdd-weekly.html // https://weatherspark.com/y/2404/Average-Weather-in-Okotoks-C... "Over the course of the year, the temperature typically varies from 13°F to 76°F and is rarely below -12°F or above 86°F.")
That said, there's nothing saying that one can't use a heat pump to as a source of heat in the summer (which would also cool the house) in additional to other sources of thermal energy.
So cooling 10 cubic kilometres of rock by say 50C releases 790J * 2700 * 1,000,000,000 * 50 * 10 = 10^18J or 600MW of heat over 50 years. At 33% efficiency your talking 200 MW of electricity for 50 years assuming 100% capacity factor and ignoring how fast it recharges.
If it’s a backup for solar and wind at 50% capacity factor then you could double the power output or double the lifespan.
So replace megawatts with kilowatts in your answer... Still not nothing, but you're gonna have to have super cheap drilling to make it viable.
EDIT: Ah - you made another mistake... there is 1e9 cubic meters in a cubic kilometer. So your original answer is correct again!
It would take more than a well. A lot of wells.
I love this idea in general but it seems to me it will only work if you find water underground to carry the heat. I am not a geologist
In some places you can tap into an underground very hot aquifer. In others with sufficient permeability need only need to supply your own cold water. Worst case you also need to crack the rock: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_geothermal_system
Obviously you will still have to pay the capex for the turbines and generators for whatever peak level you decide, but I'd guess they're a smallish chunk of the total budget. If you think energy prices will be more volatile in the future (more extreme climate means more peak-usage days, and more renewables means more days/hours with a shortfall in generation), then it makes sense to overbuild turbines so you can rake in the $$$'s in that 1-2 days per year when energy prices spike up 1000x.
Stopping the flow (and letting it cool in the pipes ) for any length of time or with any frequency could mean not being able to ever start it again.
As a battery for storing heat energy generated by other methods though it's great.
Also, you didn't specify a depth for your calculation; won't the flux be higher the deeper you go (i.e. be proportional to the delta-T)? They are talking about going to 20km which as I understand it is WAY deeper than most geothermal systems contemplate. Their whole bet is predicated on the idea that with the gyrotron they can drill deeper since they don't need to mess with high-temp drill bits.
The depth doesn't matter at this scale. 20km deep the heat flux is about 0.3% higher. Things get complicated as you go down into the mantle, but at 20km you're still in the top part of the crust.
The only thing drilling deep does is increase your max temperature, which increases efficiency, but eventually you hit the same limit as with any other steam generating plant where you can only handle steam that is so hot and so high pressure. With current technology, that limits the efficiency percentage to the low 40s. Maybe with some technological improvements this can go up a bit, but the carnot efficiency of a heat engine where the water is heated to the point it will decompose is 87%, and there is no way you're even going to get near that in a real plant, so increasing efficiency isn't really going to make a huge difference.
As we replace base load with less reliable sources we need to come up with some way of expressing a penalty for availability. Does it matter how cheap solar is if it isn’t available when we need it and storage is not practical?
But most places that is way, way deeper than 20km.
The thickness of the Earth's crust is strongly bimodal, making "average" meaningless: thinner under oceans, thicker on continents. Much thicker. Most of the planet is, of course, sea floor, so mostly thinner. But drilling the sea floor is unpleasant and expensive, and at the end, the hole is all the way down there.
Literally everything costs more than wind and solar. It is why nukes will soon be mothballed.
The writer Aleksey Tolstoy came up with the idea of the laser-like machine that melts the rock in 1920s (maybe also influenced by H.G.Walls), when his science fiction book was first published. In this book a genial engineer Garin creates a beam that can be used both in mining (he wants to get the gold from the mantle, so uses American VC funding to set up a mining operation in Pacific) and as a weapon (he also wants to rule the world, so he uses his machine to destroy German and American competitors).
https://wondery.com/shows/how-i-built-this/episode/10386-hib...
Battery systems and solar are other initiatives that are currently re-using the existing lines.
However, while it makes a nice hook for a story, I'm dubious of any energy system that relies on that minor cost saving in established grids to be viable.
Solar can win on price with entirely new builds against already depreciated Coal plants. If you can't beat that price, then you are at best a complement to solar, and sticking solar, battery or synchronous condensors in the old coal plants might make more sense instead.
See: Cost–benefit analysis of coal plant repurposing in developing countries
> The flow of heat from Earth's interior to the surface is estimated at 47±2 terawatts
And
> Despite its geological significance, Earth's interior heat contributes only 0.03% of Earth's total energy budget at the surface, which is dominated by 173,000 TW of incoming solar radiation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_internal_heat_budget
For instance heat from the surface “thus penetrates only several tens of centimeters on the daily cycle and only several tens of meters on the annual cycle”
If you have a small area and continually pump the heat out then you end up with the inside of a freezer, which uses the same tech for exactly that purpose, but also intentionally insulates to prevent the heat getting back in.
Except the process has been sort of reversed: there was heat being introduced into the deep layers of clay and rock.
Anyway this is fascinating stuff!
To your question, I'm wondering if they simply pump down water and extract resulting steam once it reaches the point of vaporization? The steam condensers and everything else are already built on-site for coal generation.
One difficulty would be handling any accumulated minerals that got into the steam loop from interaction with the rock in the hole. Unlike traditional closed-loop steam generator, an open system would pick up contaminants and eventually cause scaling.
Maybe you‘re thinking of tidal power plants? Tides are gravitationally caused, and as far as I know tapping into them infinitesimally changes Earth‘s rotation (and to some extent probably also Earths and the Moon‘s orbit).
I've always assumed it's been looked at, so I don't worry about it particularly, but I never see anybody talk about it.
The amount lost is sufficient to power a small toaster oven.
...and it's kept in the basement of the BIPM, right next to the International Prototype of the Pop-Tart®.
An adviser of Quaise (an MIT research engineer) claims:
> “This will happen quickly once we solve the immediate engineering problems of transmitting a clean beam and having it operate at a high energy density without breakdown,” explains Woskov, who is not formally affiliated with Quaise but serves as an advisor. “It’ll go fast because the underlying technology, gyrotrons, are commercially available. You could place an order with a company and have a system delivered right now — granted, these beam sources have never been used 24/7, but they are engineered to be operational for long time periods. In five or six years, I think we’ll have a plant running if we solve these engineering problems. I’m very optimistic.”
Interested in what others think here. Seems overly optimistic to me.
It's a really elegant solution though if it works; the idea of boring a hole in an existing coal plant and repurposing the old steam turbine & transmission equipment sounds like it could really lower the cost.
Quaise is staffed heavily by former Schlumberger employees. Schlumberger is known for being too expensive and impractical in many of its business units for shale. It is on-brand that they are building a laser-like drilling technology! Quaise deserves credit for correctly identifying the challenges in geothermal economics and pursuing a path with a greater than zero chance of success. But many of their assumptions are off base. The large, bureaucratic companies you work with at Schlumberger often do things like limit trip speed to 500'/hr. One time tripping fast caused a blowout by swabbing the hole, so no rig contracted by the company can trip fast even if the blowout risk is low. Smaller companies are ripping out of the hole at 4000'/hr. Tripping in granite is like tripping in a cased hole. Most companies will push the speed to the physical limits of the crew and rig. And even at 50,000' depths, on-bottom drilling will dominate total time (assuming a high-temperature motor is available). Both PDC bits and motors suffer from the vibration drilling in hard rock causes. There is a decent chance that PDC and elastomer-free motor assemblies will see longer runs at deep depths because the rock is more ductile."
I have no background in energy at all, so I'm not qualified to comment on this at all. Just leaving it here as a counterpoint to the original article.
Geothermal seems to be limited by finding suitable places for it, which is generally where you only need to build fairly shallow wells. Building deep wells is expensive. If you can build deeper wells faster and cheaper then it opens it up to move areas.
Is that correct?
Better and cheaper drilling has way more applications thatn building geothermal wells. I mean we need to build tunnels all the time. Cheaper drilling probably has significant applications for the oil and gas industry too.
So if that's true, why the focus on geothermal? I mean I support research into renewables but it's a whole lot easier if, say, you can get the oil and gas industry to pay for your R&D, effectively.
My understanding is that geothermal energy production is still pretty low.
It's also worth noting that boiling water to steam and turning a turbine has inbuilt costs that you can't escape. There's only one power source that directly creates energy and that's solar. Additionally, solar has no moving parts (other than facing PV pannels towards the Sun, optionally).
I believe that is what they are doing, with initial projects being related to gas exploration, and using that to refine the technology.
There are other geothermal startups doing more O&G-like drilling though.
https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/the-interchange-recharg...
"Houde began his talk with a quote from the Department of Energy’s 2019 Geovision report, an analysis of the geothermal industry in the United States: 'Supercritical resources can be found everywhere on Earth by drilling deep enough…Drilling to this depth is financially prohibitive with existing technology…Economic production of supercritical resources will require the development of entirely new classes of drilling technologies and methods.'
Quaise is working to that end."
https://bioengineer.org/quaise-inc-drilling-technology-could...
Here's hoping the pudding will prove palatable.
How so? Our major energy source is oil, where the energy comes from sunlight. And light's energy is from the electromagnetic fundamental force, not gravity.
The sun. How did the sun form and why does it produce light? Gravity pulled some hydrogen into a ball, enough of it was there that gravity forced it to fuse.
Then, can somebody clarify the physics for me- how far away can the target be from the energy source of the gyro-tron?
Boring rock in this way is a permanent "we're 5-10 years away research project."
They've coupled a never ending research project with the idea of "hey there's already some power lines here" which is the smallest of efficiency gains in the big picture.
Check out this, for example:
https://news.ycombinator.com/from?site=news.mit.edu&next=220...
Of course, eventually might be a million years from now. I remember climate change deniers saying that climate change might produce a visible effect by 2400, and by then we could fix it. Now look where we are with that.
There's also fracking. To tap the core we probably need to do deep drilling, with a lot of the problems that drilling for oil or fracking cause, except possibly magnified because of the depths we're talking about.
It is much easier, and safer, to tap solar energy. If we pour research into solar efficiency and house-scale batteries, we could provide all of the electricity needed for U.S. homes and have enough to sell to Canada and Mexico with only 16k sq miles (the size of Nellis AFB).
"A square mile, 5,280 feet times 5,280 feet equals 27,878,400 square feet. Divided by 15 sq.ft. per module, we can fit 1,858,560 modules per square mile. At 0.6266 kilowatt-hours per module per day, our square mile will deliver 1,164,574 kWh per day on average, or 425,069,510 kWh per year. Back to our goal of 4,000,000,000,000 kWh, divided by 425,069,510 kWh per year per square mile, it looks like we need about 9,410 square miles of surface to meet the electrical needs of the U.S. That’s a square area a bit less than 100 miles on a side. This is a bit over half of the approximate 16,000 square miles currently occupied by the Nevada Test Site and the surrounding Nellis Air Force Range." [1]
As for your second point, batteries are not cheap. Nowhere near cheap. We need solutions not pipe dreams.
I think the reality is we need a “yes and” approach, not a “no but”.
A million times this.
We have solutions at our hands, but we're not willing enough to use them
Covering 16,000 sq. miles would take about 40 years of the entire global PV module production - a few years less if adjusted for production increase.
Doesn't sound very realistic to me, especially considering infrastructure, storage solutions(!!!), and maintenance/replacement have to be added on top of that.
I'm all for clean and sustainable power generation, but a little diversity (wind, nuclear, geothermal, biomass, tidal power, hydropower, etc.) seems to be more realistic and actually achievable.
[0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/668764/annual-solar-modu...
The lesson is: Always. Do. The. Math. First.
Best case, our use falls in the .003% mentioned in another thread of heat that contributes to warming the Earth's crust, and the surface is that .003% cooler.
The worst case, though, is we start slowing (maybe even stopping) the flows of molten rock as it's cooled down. I don't even have the beginnings of a background to comment - does anybody?
That's about as reasonable as your point about tapping enough heat from Earth's core to disturb the magnetic field.
So it's the wrong time to worry about effects after that.
One thing I would like to see happen is tap the energy at Yellowstone in a big way. We want to cool that down before it blows up in our faces.
Solar is great, and growing fast, but for fairly obvious reasons works better as part of a multifaceted solution than as a single source.
Nonetheless, it is worth putting some numbers to gain perspective:
1. World electricity demand was 24K terawatt hours in 2019 [1]
2. Mt St Helens volcano released 24 megatons of energy when it erupted [2]. That is 28 terawatt hours.
3. Thus, you would be adding 824 equivalent Mt St Helen eruptions a year in terms of additional energy extraction from the earth. Which sounds like a lot, but it really isn't for several reasons.
4. In particular, the earth is already radiating substantially than this amount of energy to the surface. "Because of the internal heat, the Earth's surface heat flow averages 82 mW/m2 which amounts to a total heat of about 42 million megawatts."[3]. That is 42 terawatts of continual energy loss from the crust/upper mantle to the surface. That is 16 times as much electricity as humanity uses -- and it is already be radiated to the surface.
My guess is that if we started extracting this from 20KM down and bringing that heat to the surface, then it would cause some increase in energy radiated to the surface, but it would also be concentrating that energy radiated to the surface at the location of the plant and potentially decreasing that energy from its slow radiation path to the surface through the rock above it.
Either way that potassium and uranium is going to decay. Either way, that heat will eventually make it to the surface and eventually be lost to space. The question is whether we can stand in the middle of that process and capture it for use. Our using of that heat and turning it into electricity -- ultimately still turns into heat and is radiated to space. It just is turned into heat when it is loses on the electricity transmission grid, when it is used to heat a house, when it is used to move a car, etc.
TANSTAAFL really doesn't intersect with the reality that stars burn and the earth decays whether we use the energy or not. Entropy comes for us all. We are just trying to be a step in the ultimate transition of all this energy to the heat death of the universe.
[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/280704/world-power-consu... [2] https://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/energy/energ.... [3] https://www.worldenergy.org/assets/images/imported/2013/10/W...
I could imagine that this seems reasonably safe right now, only for us to find out that it's actually a horrible thing to do. As has happened lots of times before. This is just a gut feeling and I'm not anti or whatever, it just feels...weird to me.
No idea what the bad effects could be. Loss of internal heat, destabilization, sinkholes, loss of pressure, volcano eruptions back-firing through these holes. Admittedly, these examples sound like apocalypse movie scenarios. Which just validates my initial statement about me actually not knowing very much.
Could also be like deforestation. Trees do die just like that, without our intervention. This benefits the forest. A couple of humans can chop wood in said forest and it will not affect it too much. But if whole cities and countries suddenly have to get their wood from this forest, it will disappear very fast.
So maybe geothermal energy is not a risk when a couple of plants exist. But if humanity starts to rely on it too much and starts building geothermal plants like crazy, the damage could show. Maybe the damage only appears locally in the vicinity of these plants, which would still be worrying.
I just want to disclose again that I am just spit-balling here.
You are one person, and is sensible. Humanity as a whole, not so much so, sadly.
The concept of reusing existing coal plants sounds clever.
The tldr being that there is sufficient heat and we don’t need to worry about running out even if we tapped into a significant portion of it.
[0] https://m.dw.com/en/green-good-intentions-cause-chaos-in-two...
[1] https://comptes-rendus.academie-sciences.fr/geoscience/artic...
They are going to great lengths to make it compatible with the existing power grid (just replacing the heat source for current generators), re-utilizing abandoned mines and all.
So, would you care to elaborate why you think it would never materialize?
I'm not equipped to judge how difficult those problems will be to overcome in practice. Obviously this would be very cool if it bears out, but it's hard to tell if it will.
I just think of so many hurdles...I hope they make it. I originally wrote a huge reply explaining my thinking, but sounded like a rant.
If it works, maybe it can also be used to quickly bore the underground tunnels Musk has been working on. Could be life-changing tech.
But it’s not a major concern, in this case faster still means billion year time scales.
[0]: https://www.theworldcounts.com/challenges/climate-change/ene...
Compared to a human life, that is a very long time. Compared to the time it's going to take for the sun to expand and swallow the earth (which others in the thread are doing), it really isn't.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_supply_and_consum...
[0] https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great...
If that's true, they're proposing to convert mass to energy?
So then they have superheated gaseous rock in the bottom of the bore hole, how do they get it out? Conservation of mass: it must go somewhere.
Ventilation isn't so simple. The gaseous rock will condense, then harden on the walls of the ventilation tube. Or, maybe it reacts with the materials of your down-hole equipment.
First, how do they plan to address well control? As you drill down through the Earth, you drill through many layers of rock, some of which contain oil and gas in various quantities. Since the thousands of feet of rock above is heavy, they are under a lot of pressure, and will be happy to flow out through your borehole and up to the surface if you don't take measures to keep the formation under control. If they are allowed to do that, those flammable materials can easily ignite and cause a fire big enough to destroy your entire drilling apparatus and be very difficult to put out. Note that you don't necessarily need enough oil and gas to be commercially produceable to generate a disastrously bad blowout.
Oil wells address this by filling the borehole with drilling fluid at a specific density, which produces enough pressure at the bottom of the hole to counter formation pressure. Every well is also fitted with multiple blowout preventers to seal off the well in case of a sudden pressure increase from the formation, and also allow heaver weight fluid to be circulated in to get back under control. The wells are also drilled and cased in sections, so that there is never too large of an amount of borehole uncovered that needs to be kept under control.
So given all that, exactly where is this Gyrotron going to be? If it's at the surface, how are they planning to microwave through miles of drilling fluid and have enough energy at the bottom to cut more rock? If it's at depth, how is this Gyrotron going to survive the high temperatures there? High-end electronics are much more sensitive to extreme heat than drill bits are. Especially if you're pumping ~megawatts of energy through them to actually cut rock. Speaking of, how would we even get that much electric power down there? Oil and gas has spent many billions of dollars on this and has yet to find a good solution.
Also, how are they planning to keep this whole straight and judge depth? Holes thousands of feet down don't just stay straight, you have to actively keep them straight. The oilfield has plenty of ways to do this with conventional drilling hardware, how will their Gyrotron system manage it? And we also need to transport rock cuttings / fumes to the surface fast enough to support the drilling rate, how will they do that?
I'm also wondering about fluid flowrates. If they manage to drill down far enough to get to rock hot enough, how much fluid do they need to flow in order to get enough heat energy to the surface to operate these steam turbines? How big pipes do they need up and down to flow that rate? They also need to flow slow enough at depth to pick up lots of heat, and also fast enough through the mid and shallow depths to not lose all that heat to the local formation before it gets to the surface. For that matter, what's the heat flow rate from the magma into the rock at the depth they were drilling out - how much heat power can we really extract long-term with their setup? (I see jjk166 has addressed that, and that it is another serious issue).
Don't get me wrong, geothermal is a really nice solution, and I wish all the luck in the world to anyone working on using it more. I just don't see any technology here that address the real issues with getting large-scale energy from geothermal.
I helped design and operate lots of oilfield electronics for those depths and temperatures. MTBF for the most hardened electronics we could get our hands on at temps over 150C was in the neighborhood of 200 hours max. Drilling slowly with much more sophisticated and unproven electronics, I expect they'll be dropping like flies if they ever work at all. And that's with extremely generous assumptions on the heat loads. MTBF of electronics drops exponentially as temperature goes up.
1. The invention works, it WILL be built and sold, and you know how much revenue potential this means.
2. HN readers (even YCombinator as a VC) should be given a shot at "the next big thing".
3. If you guys really insist in not wanting to be part of this, then so be it. Don't be too hard on yourself in a few months, though.
/s
> [...] In five or six years, I think we’ll have a plant running if we solve these engineering problems. I’m very optimistic.
If only a few engineering problems have to be solved to make it work, then it will be ready in no time. It's not like those engineering problems are hard to solve or anything. That's why fusion works so great, cheap batteries are wide-spread and everyone has 100% effective solar-panels.
Optimism is difficult to generate and easy to snuff out. We should be less inclined, as a society, to default to apathy.
But perhaps being optimistic about timelines is how you secure funding? Couldn't say.
That national pride does not exist as a driving force for addressing climate change. We, in many ways, don't even have a national consensus on the need to address climate change.
The guy's optimism is laudable but it's fair to be skeptical it'll just take 5-6 years.