Beyond the "unsinkable aircraft carrier" angle, that is.
Beyond the "unsinkable aircraft carrier" angle, that is.
How so? Not for the foreseeable future in bleeding and leading edge nodes, where the PRC is some unknown but very long distance away from making their own EUV machines.
An invasion of Taiwan just means an end to TSMC production there, a point its chairman Mark Liu made a few days ago in a CNN interview. That would have really bad effects on the PRC's narrow economy with its export focus.
https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/fzgps/date/2022-07-31/segme...
LIU: Nobody can control TSMC by force. If you take a military force or invasion you will render TSMC's factory non-operable because this is such a sophisticated manufacturing facility. It depends on the real time [correlation] with the outside world, with Europe, with Japan, with the U.S., from materials to chemicals to spare parts to engineering software diagnosis. And it's everybody's effort to maybe this factory operable. So if you take it over by force you can no longer make it operable.
No bombs will fall anywhere near TSMC's facilities. No tanks will go anywhere near their employee parking lots. Life will go on just like before. For a few years, at least.
It'll be just like Hong Kong. No bloodshed there either.
Come on. There is not a less "narrow" major economy on the planet than China's. This is just silly.
USA would collapse in weeks if China blocked all exports. China would run out of dollars, which coincidentally would become worthless at the same time.
The US economy is deeply dependent on the Chinese economy. It is a total fantasy to pretend that the Chinese economy can suffer without US economy suffering massively as well.
For that matter, I think your original proposition has been partly proven wrong, the traffic jams at West Coast ports have deprived the US of timely container deliveries from the PRC and Asia in general. Some high value low weight and volume stuff got through via air, but somehow we continued to operate a modern technological industrial civilization.
As for getting crushed by SMIC, this is only with possible massive government investment from the PRC. Now you see many other governments reacting with subsidies in kind. It will be a totally distorted market in 10 years time.