Things are worth what others are actually willing to pay, there is no such thing as a metaphysical true worth.
So yes, Tesla is actually worth whatever the market cap is.
So yes, Tesla is actually worth whatever the market cap is.
I've also heard the argument that Tesla's network of chargers brings more value, but...there will also be more competitors in that space in the near future (and today).
So, it seems shortsighted to believe that "market cap" is going to remain as high as it is today.
There is no true value set by Buddha, Buffet, Robinhood, or ML.
There are many EV that came out that most people don't know much about since they were not produced in large numbers.
And we should also consider that the battery space is running into material shortages and Tesla had the longest to prepare for that and are the largest buyer of battery materials/batteries on the plant.
Other companies might want to sell more EV, but they will literally not be able to.
I have no horse in the game (no Tesla nor any other automotive stocks) but we’ve definitely seen companies being massively overvalued in the past and then face fierce correction - AOL was once worth $222 billion and later (not even that much later) sold for less than 1% of that.
First, my understanding is that Tesla has a night and day lead in battery sourcing.
Second, Tesla doesn’t have the legacy costs that the others do.
Also, at this point, Tesla is still selling cars faster than they can build them. Even if demand weakens, they may still be at max output.
They have a factory where Panasonic employees come in and make batteries for them (a little glib, but not that far off), but aside from that they really don't have some secret sauce that we know about. They are putting CATL batteries in their cars just like everyone else and they don't have any mining or refining operational unlike BYD. Their battery research and production is massively behind schedule and the future of the Model 3, Y, and Cybertruck all depend on volume 4680 production which is behind at Panasonic as well.
Ford has the supply for 400,000 EVs lined up between now and 2024 and Volkswagen has the supply to outproduce Tesla in 2024. BYD is already producing more PHEV/BEV than Tesla, and if there is a solid-state breakthrough it won't be happening at Tesla.
The stock market is routinely “mistaken” and stocks get overhyped and then crash down later (or vice versa). It’s not some omniscient deity that’s never wrong (except in a very literal and impractical way of looking at it).
First of, Tesla is buying massively from Panasonic, LG and CATL. They are also doing their own batteries in addition to that. The production of that is behind schedule, but not that far, and I can believe how little credit Tesla is getting for literally turning into a battery company over just a few years. Their batteries are gone give them a huge advantage in margin.
> depend on volume 4680 production which is behind at Panasonic as well
Tesla 4680 have nothing to do with Panasonic. Panasonic is also gone make 4680 format cells for Tesla, but those are totally different and have nothing to do with the cells currently shipping from Texas.
> Ford has the supply for 400,000 EVs lined up
Tesla makes that many in less then 6 month. And there is a large difference between signing a supply agreement and actually getting it. The lithium industry had scaling problems and pretty much all expert suggest a shortage is coming.
For Ford to get all those materials, it requires a huge number of supply expedition projects to go correctly and that is not at all guaranteed.
For until a few years ago didn't even believe that had to worry about batteries or battery materials at all. And since then they have done a 180 and try to tell everybody how EV focused and smart they are, when in-fact they are behind the curve.
> Volkswagen has the supply to outproduce Tesla in 2024
Not sure where you got this from, but its false.
> BYD is already producing more PHEV/BEV than Tesla
Nice that you snuck PHEV in-there. But yeah BYD is a great company, but their cars are mostly China only.
> if there is a solid-state breakthrough it won't be happening at Tesla.
Solid stage or rather what people actually mean by that, lithium anodes, is not inherently superior to silicon anodes. Andt Tesla has some of the most interesting research in that direction.
Also solid state will not really be relevant in the BEV space for many years to come.
i.e. competing with everyone else for the same pie
> I can believe how little credit Tesla is getting for literally turning into a battery company over just a few years. Their batteries are gone give them a huge advantage in margin.
Probably because they aren't a very good battery company yet. they haven't even started mining or refining their own lithium, and they have yet to volume produce their own chemistry.
> Tesla makes that many in less then 6 month. And there is a large difference between signing a supply agreement and actually getting it. The lithium industry had scaling problems and pretty much all expert suggest a shortage is coming.
Tesla will have the exact same problem given they have no mining or refining operations. Even if their volume production goes well they will be fighting over the same lithium as everyone else.
> For Ford to get all those materials, it requires a huge number of supply expedition projects to go correctly and that is not at all guaranteed.
My understanding is that those supplies are pretty much entirely from 3rd party suppliers and don't include their in-house battery production which is slated to start later. But hey, maybe they lied to investors about the supply and if so they will pay the price.
> Not sure where you got this from, but its false.
Bloomberg Intelligence, and the actual claim is that they will outproduce them, not just have the supply to: https://www.bloomberg.com/company/press/volkswagen-to-overta...
> Andt Tesla has some of the most interesting research in that direction.
I will believe it when I see anything from battery day 2020 materialize.
i.e. being a Top 2 most important costumer of every major battery company.
> they haven't even started mining or refining their own lithium
Almost no battery company does that.
> Bloomberg Intelligence
They apparently disagree with most other people who look at that space. I'm willing to bet 5000$ even odds with you if you on whether VW outsells Tesla in terms of BEV by 2024.
> I will believe it when I see anything from battery day 2020 materialize.
Many things are already in the 4680 cells and you seem to believe all those solid state companies who have never achieved anything.