Who knows, the military situation could change a lot in three months. The article doesn't really take that into account.
But regardless that’s not the question. Let’s say Russia just rolls a 20 and does far better than is rationally possible, taking Odessa and much of the east rapidly. How does that change the energy situation? Let’s say Russia captures all of Ukraine and gets its genocidal wishes. Does that change anything? Are they really gonna say “well the war is over so let’s resume gas purchases”?
I think no.
Napoleon's army occupied Moscow by late summer. They started their retreat in early fall, and got stuck in the mud. His army had been mostly destroyed before winter even started.
In the first world war, the German army fought through 3 winters in Russia before Russia surrendered.
In the second world war, the German army fought through 3 winters before they were defeated.
In the February 2022 Russian invasion in to Ukraine, the Russian army got stuck in the mud and was forced to abandon their siege of Kiev under heavy losses.
The Russian winter isn't necessarily any more pleasant for the Russians than for their enemies. I'm sure they made use of the climatic circumstances, but the weather didn't do the work for them. Napoleon and the nazis were both defeated by an opponent with a better grand strategy and logistics.
That's true, but the winter was famously the inflection point in WWII. It's no coincidence.
Why would Russia need to maintain leverage at that point? Wouldn't they be better off just selling the gas and taking the money?
>Russia decisively takes more of Ukraine... and somehow all sanctions are dropped?
If that happens, and the immediate conflict is resolved, what material reason is there for EU citizens to endure the cold?
If Russia lost decisively in Ukraine, I don't think they'll turn the gas back on to Europe unless there's a regime change in Russia. Putin will be thrashing around doing whatever he can to make Europe suffer for their helping Ukraine.
> If that happens, and the immediate conflict is resolved, what material reason is there for EU citizens to endure the cold?
But would the conflict be resolved in the case where Russia takes more of Ukraine? I don't see how it could be considered resolved at that point. Even if (especially if?) Russia were to take over all of Ukraine and install a puppet regime the west will continue to isolate Russia.
There's plenty of time for the situation to change drastically, but nobody should rely on that happening.
This seems like the only thing that could possibly happen in the next 3 months that would actually change the situation. But it also doesn't seem likely to happen within the next 3 months.