"If your confidence rests on assumption that Russians are too scared to discuss the war, that's myopic. "
You're missing the relevance here:
1) Russian can talk 'about' the war, obviously, they just can't talk about it in a way that contradicts Putin's propaganda. And for at least some time, they literally could not use the term 'war' - and frankly - you still do not hear that word. They are afraid to use it.
2) That a few people can talk a bit more freely isn't evidence of much, when 1000's of people have been fined or imprisoned for speaking out even marginally.
Example: Strelkov is a hardcore, fascist ultra-nationalist Russian who is responsible for killing Ukrainians in Donbas, and who would burn Ukraine to the ground if he could - and his publicly stated objective is 'mas mobilization' and 'total war'.
His 'ultra nationalist murderer credentials' allow him to speak somewhat more freely about the situation than others.
If Putin wanted to arrest him at any time, he could, for whatever reason, on any kind of arbitrary charge, but there isn't much point to that as he's 'on the side of Russia' just a bit critical.
And of course, Telegram is littered with people 'talking about the war' but they do so in a 'pro Russian' or 'Neutral' way.
But:
+ How many Russian voices are calling for the war to end immediately because Russia has failed and Russia's actions are inhumane?
+ How many Russians are voicing the number of Russian soldiers killed?
+ How many Russians are calling for an end to Putin's regime?
The answer is zero or close to it.
While most Russians are in the range of 'neutral to support' the war, there are obviously millions, especially in Moscow and St.P. who don't want it - so where are their voices? Where are their Telegrams? Where are their web sites?
They don't exist, because they will be put in jail.
Try this guys YouTube channel [1] he walks about in Moscow and asks people subversive questions, because he obviously cannot ask them direct questions.
(It's a very good channel, not it's not a randomly sampled audience, they are younger and more urban than most Russians).
Significant numbers of people are unwilling to speak to him merely for the 'possibly controversial' nature of his questions.
In another background video, he indicates significantly more people are not willing to speak to him than even those he shows.
Significant numbers of people use 'carefully guarded' language to state their subversive opinions.
Some of them use ridiculous satire (i.e. by saying ridiculously ultra nationalist things) to make their point.
ZERO people on his channel ever refer to the war in an antagonizing, confrontational manner, in a way that would get them in trouble. None.
They never use the word 'war' to refer to the 'war' - if that's not obviously Orwellian.
If those questions were asked in America, UK or France, even during the Iraq war, significant numbers of individuals would have some very ugly words for Mr. Bush, the war etc.. I
Those 'regular people' are not remotely able to express themselves freely, which is evidence of Putin's ultra authoritarian control over them.
Also note he does ask in many videos from where people derive their information, the more likely they 'mostly watch TV' (which is mostly state controlled propaganda) by far the more likely they are to support the war and say incredibly fascist things.
If Russians watched 3 hours of 'completely free press' TV every night, and were allowed to express themselves publicly on the internet, Twitter, and 'assemble freely' without fear of repression - that war would have been over long ago. Putin would have likely been ejected long ago.
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibdS_hVLk9g