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Comment by jeffreyrogers | Hacker News Reader

We'll see. I'm not as optimistic as you. Russia hasn't mobilized all their manpower and its position can change dramatically if the war lasts until winter.

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I'm with you, I can't see how - long term - Russia could possibly lose. Sure they're a decade or two behind the West when it comes to technology but there's no way Ukraine can match Russia's manpower and industrial capacity. Then again, I really didn't think the U.S. could possibly lose to the Taliban, yet here we are.

Ukraine can't but the West easily does. It's important to keep in mind that Russia's economy is the size of Italy's, and they have a population of 145 millions. Ukraine has 44 millions, NATO countries combined have 950 millions, most of which are highly developed industrial nations, so there's really no question that NATO can outproduce Russia many times over, if they choose to really ramp up the production and ship it to Ukraine.

It seems they are getting there, even the Germans are slowly giving up their hesitations, and it makes sense as well: anything Russia has to spend in Ukraine, they cannot spend in Poland and the Baltic States.

Comparing Russian GDP to Italy understates Russian economic power because it is probably the most autarchic country (maybe North Korea is more autarchic, I would have said the USA too until covid happened) and is a net exporter of metals, energy, and food. If the war lasts until winter Europe will really be hurting from lack of Russian energy.

> If the war lasts until winter Europe will really be hurting from lack of Russian energy.

Russia has already cut off most of their gas supplies with Nord Stream 1.

And so Europe has measures in place eg. storing gas, sharing agreements, increasing supply from Azerbaijan etc. They will experience some pain over winter but day by day they become more ready for it.

Energy usage increases in the winter because of heating. That will cause price increases which will put pressure on European politicians to resolve the war.

That is definitely Putin's hope. However, since he has already invaded Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 Europe recognizes that if he isn't stopped in Ukraine, Russia will never stop their expansionist dreams.

Prices will be high, just like everything else, but there is no question that Russia must be defeated in Ukraine. It's essential to European security.

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