On the other hand, we just went through a once per lifetime pandemic and a once per lifetime consumer stimulus package. Supply chains are wrecked and we're in a period during which international trading patterns could massively change. Meanwhile,

* China is still purusing zero COVID.

* There's a land war in Europe with Russia effectively cut off from the Western world.

* German manufacturing, once a workhorse, is being crushed by energy costs

* much of the developing world is swimming hard against the current just to stay alive.

I don't think we are in a situation analogous to 1947, of course, and I do think we are in or at least heading into a more-than-technical recession. But "irrelevant because that only happens after once in a lifetime extremely disruptive events" is a pretty... odd... take in 2022.