I’m not an economist. A number of respected economists believed a year ago that inflation was mostly supply chain issues and was transient. Now, with new information, opinions are changing. I believe the monetary stimulus mostly occurred the first year of the pandemic but maybe it’s continuing. I don’t know. Since inflation is a global phenomenon it seems reasonable to conclude that fiscal stimulus in the U.S. is not the cause.

I believe the statements regarding the Ukraine war were that it was going to increase inflation and not that the current level of inflation was due to the war. The statements I recall were of the form, “due to the war inflation will be exacerbated.”