If the government changes the definition I guess we're not right?
When I see the current administration which especially the media said that 'they should be doing much better' than the last one, trying to escape by changing definitions, and dodging the hard questions, everyone can tell that it is going to get worse and they knew it would, and the numbers don't lie.
Thus, given that almost all politicians are liars and have spin-doctors distorting reality, should we listen to everything they say? No. A dose of skepticism on what they are 'telling' us will unveil the bullshit that they are saying vs what is happening in reality.
It's just that, of the time periods since the mid-19th century for which the NBER has determined recessions, the two consecutive down quarters rule of thumb has had no (previous) false positives since 1947.
The reality is that whether we saw negative growth or not, GDP is clearly contracting.
Which is not a surprise. And not only is it not a surprise, it's the intended effect of the inflation fighting efforts being undertaken by the Fed.
The Fed, or the government, has very little to no control over global supply chain issues, Russia going on a dumb war, and China shutting down massive parts of the country on the whiff of COVID, so the Fed is using the only tool it has available to it.
Which is completely slowing down the economy. Why are we surprised that the economy is slowing down when that's what we're trying to do.
However, there are separate problems with the government scrambling to focus on messaging/spin instead of the actual issues, and the magnifying problem of the whole media complex jumping to toe the party line.
Current statements differ dramatically from previous comments, such as two years ago, when global events also caused a downturn, or even months ago, before the white house started messaging "other factors".
For what it's worth, 2 years ago, NPR stated, 'The standard definition of a recession is "a decline in economic activity that lasts more than a few months.' while noting the covid effects on the economy were broad and deep enough to declare a recession earlier than usual. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/0...
Yes, let's get the economy going, but let's also have the press play their watchdog role, and not just be boosters of the administration.
Personal monetary liquidity would be a good measure, combined with business liquidity. (Money velocity excluding banks.)
Unfortunate fact is that because prices increased (mostly due to greed in oil/gas sector and housing bubble) and wages did not, it results in USA people facing austerity and cutting spending. And if they have to do it, so do companies, ultimately.
Covid mostly accelerated the trend in a few industries.