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Comment by tdhz77 | Hacker News Reader

It was about 6.5% in the 1998 recession and 5.25% in the 2007 great recession. It's unlikely we will head into a recession anytime soon. Numbers are all over the place, but I see most of it as temporary (Covid, Gas Prices) and not structural or risky behavior from investment banks in 2007. Remind me if I'm wrong, but I think inflation will drastically drop next report.

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> not structural or risky behavior from investment banks in 2007

I don't see it that way at all. Over the last couple years, we've seen an explosion in private capital investments, NFT and crypto fads (questionable, but I would argue that these were large enough to be considered structural), greatly increasing home prices, supply chain disruptions, the war in ukraine (and all its knock-on effects). Things are a bit topsy-turvy, and I am hesitant to write off all of these things as "not structural".

The values of homes went up during the pandemic because people were in their homes. The extra savings of not going out to eat, vacations, etc.. enabled people to reason that paying for more of a house to fit their work from home lifestyles worth it. When you add that plus the historically low interest rate it was a tour-de-force. You might be on to something that it might be more structural now than how I originally thought. People are locked in homes that might be another housing crises, and if we start having job loss we could see something ugly like 2007. Again, I remain hopeful that salaries are up and unemployment is low. On the positive side, the US is better off inflation-wise in the United States than in Europe.

The only structural issue I'm concerned about is years of cheap debt. As a result we've seen a lot of growth in debt across individuals, corporations, and governments, and I wonder what happens when we reach a point where debt simply stops growing significantly.

"It's unlikely we will head into a recession anytime soon."

We are in a recession now, what are you talking about? Lets revisit this comment tomorrow.

Most economists still don’t think the economy meets the formal definition of a recession, which is based on a broader set of indicators including measures of income, spending and employment. The G.D.P. data itself will also be revised several times in the months ahead.

It only means that the recovery is losing steam.

Two days later.. still not in a recession.

https://apple.news/AjbBSLDkHQ_uod9ztY3IDyA

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/05/business/jobs-report...

The evidence is not pointing to “we are in a recession now”

I would recommend reading the economist and not listening to Elon musk and or media hype.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/06/business/economy/economy-...

Still the evidence is pointing to not a recession but in fact a boom.

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