Comment by mullen | Hacker News Reader

Comment by mullen | Hacker News Reader

The one thing that makes me think the Lab Leak theory is true is that the Chinese government very very strongly denies the story and does anything it can to deflect or redirect the discussion to some other theory.

For anyone reading these kinds of stories and reports but is not a regular China follower, there is one thing you really should know. Anytime the Chinese government reacts very negatively to a story (Denial, attacking, undermining, deflecting), it usually means the story is true. The Chinese government is really terrible at information management and addressing anything that might make them look bad or lose face.

Just admitting a Chinese lab collected, studied and by accident a lab worker got infected with COVID is just something China can not admit. It is perfectly reasonable that some lab somewhere would collect and study the COVID virus. What is unreasonable is that the lab or a lab worker just got sloppy and accidently released that virus out to the world.

> The one thing that makes me think the Lab Leak theory is true is that the Chinese government very very strongly denies the story

...well, yes, of course they do. But they would also strongly deny the story if they thought it was untrue.

> Anytime the Chinese government reacts very negatively to a story (Denial, attacking, undermining, deflecting), it usually means the story is true.

So if they don't react negatively and deny something, then the story is... false? That doesn't make any sense.

> ...well, yes, of course they do. But they would also strongly deny the story if they thought it was untrue.

Then why would block any investigation from outside the Chinese government? If anything, if the Lab Leak theory is provable false, they should be inviting outsiders to investigate and waste their political capital/time/energy. If your advisories want to spin their wheels on something that is not true, then let them.

> So if they don't react negatively and deny something, then the story is... false? That doesn't make any sense.

When it comes to the Chinese government and information, surprisingly as it sounds, yes. If the Lab Leak story was not true, the Chinese government would not even react to it. They might even entertain it as part of their information ops strategy since the Lab Leak theory is a plausible theory.

If you think about it, how does the Wet Market theory make China look better than the Lab Leak theory? It really doesn't. If serious pandemics are coming out of Wet Markets, then why does China still allow Wet Markets to exist? At least with lab safety, labs can be improved and managed better while Wet Markets are just ticking pandemic timebombs.

> Then why would block any investigation from outside the Chinese government?

I can easily believe that the Chinese government, not exactly known for its openness, would be keen to block investigations into their bio research labs, regardless of what happened in Wuhan.

The potential upsides are few - would any doubters be silenced if the investigation found nothing?

I can also believe that even if they have no reason to believe that the lab leak theory is true and their internal investigations have turned up nothing, that they're not entirely convinced there is zero chance there wasn't a lab leak.

Even if they think there's only a 1% chance there was a lab leak, then the idea of an outside investigation is clearly dangerous to them. Blocking an investigation is safer.

>Then why would block any investigation from outside the Chinese government?

Now imagine it's US, not China. Would US let anyone from outside to investigate its labs?

That's a very interesting question.

Let's assume the US is the epicenter of a global pandemic that killed 6 million people and $12 trillion in economic damage (and counting). And the US is refusing to cooperate with an investigation into its origins.

What is an appropriate response from China, Russia, and the international community?

Assume the US's military isn't the most powerful and technologically advanced in the world. Instead China's is the most powerful and advanced.

You don't need to assume - US is always handling things this way, to the extreme; Hague Invasion Act for example.

The question is what would China do if it had America's dominant position and there was and a global pandemic killing 6 million and causing 12 trillion in damage originated blocks away from an American virus lab and animal market.

Nothing, given that it's way less aggressive than US, and I believe for a deep cultural reasons. Which is also what have been done literally every single time it happened before, I believe? The whole idea of punishing a country for a pandemic sounds deranged even for a right wing propaganda.

Punishing a country for a pandemic is deranged.

Ensuring the cause of the pandemic is understood and steps have been taken to greatly reduce the likely hood of it happening again is the opposite of deranged. Failing to do so is in fact deranged.

I'm not sure I agree with this. Do other world powers allow their rivals to investigate their bio research facilities? I don't think I've ever heard of the US inviting other world powers to examine anything sensitive like a bio research facility

You're saying that if there is more evidence that it didn't come from a lab then you would be convinced at let it go? I simply don't believe that.

Since you seem to think the lab leak theory is true, imagine a hypothetical world where it really did start from the wet market.

How do you believe the CCP's reaction would be different from what we saw them actually do?

> It is perfectly reasonable that some lab somewhere would collect and study the COVID virus. What is unreasonable is that the lab or a lab worker just got sloppy and accidently released that virus out to the world.

Is this still true? It is unfortunate that it took an event like this to prove what we already knew: lab workers, who are of course fallible humans, will make mistakes.

Given that Covid was released upon the world likely due to a lab accident and all of the damage it did over a span of years, it would seem reasonable to rethink whether unlimited experimentation and especially enhancement with viruses should be allowed. This in itself has proven to be a source of denial by the very virus experts (like Fauci) that do not want their area of science to be restricted.

> Given that Covid was released upon the world likely due to a lab accident

This is entirely without evidence.

> This in itself has proven to be a source of denial by the very virus experts (like Fauci) that do not want their area of science to be restricted.

Even if you ignore Covid19 -- epidemiologists and virologists have been screaming for years that pandemics are hugely problematic and will become increasingly likely as we densify and further intrude into the urban-wilderness interface. We got extremely lucky that SARS1 wasn't as lethal or infectious as Covid-19. If the work virologists do (even the 'riskiest' work) could lead to new universal coronavirus vaccines or better treatments, it's a much more complicated question on whether to continue the work than ignorant opinions insist.

> This is entirely without evidence.

To make it clear, the Chinese government blocks any investigation by outside parties that they don't control or have influence over.

They obviously don't have control over the authors of the paper for thread you're commenting on, and for the umpteenth time, absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence. Confidently asserting that since we don't have evidence of a lab leak, it's somehow more likely is just dumb.

Virologists have pored over the genome and are highly confident it's a virus of natural origin -- that already greatly limits the role a lab could have played and doesn't require any input or approval from the Chinese government.

> umpteenth time, absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence

Repeating nonsensical statements does not make the statement clearer. Paying attention to what you want to pay attention to is fine, but it is not a robust way to process unreliable data.

And what evidence may you have that it did not come from a lab?

Ignoring the incredible risks of playing with and even creating deadly pathogens and the high likelihood of it being released into the world serves what purpose other than to protect a small group of scientists that want to create Frankenstein pathogens for experimental purposes that are likely to be either weaponized or accidentally released? Even if there are some beneficial results from such research it is likely countered by the huge risks to mankind.

You do see the imbalance between the two statements right?

"This virus came from a lab - so we should ban lab research"

and

"You can't prove the virus didn't come from a lab - so we should ban lab research"

Nature is doing far more Gain of Function research than humans are capable of - as evidenced by literally every pandemic in history. I've generally found the people who are the most vocal about banning GoF have literally no idea what it entails and why the way pedestrians talk about is so cringeworthy.

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