May he rest in peace.
May he rest in peace.
This right here is where I get tripped up. Let's imagine we find out that Mars has no life, and we start mining it in the future. Would it also be fair to say that "Mars adapts" to that? If so, what does "adapt" really mean here? Does a rock adapt to being broken up?
So I figure you mean life on the Earth (as we know it, or not). Adapt in the sense of evolution. Living systems adapt by replicating, varying, and having some of the variations being selected against, among other mechanisms. If the Earth is a single meta-organism or something like that, it has never been selected against, has never replicated, and has a population of one. How much of ordinary biology translates to an organism that strange?
I guess it often seems like a metaphor being conflated with a theory, to me.
When I read it, I came to a conclusion that's very different from Lovelock's. I saw in it the answer to the Fermi paradox: The world keeps throwing challenges at life, and sooner or later life fails to address them, and dies out. We're only here to talk about it because we are among the lucky few who got this far (the anthropic principle).
It's a pretty depressing conclusion, because we are no more likely to meet the next challenge successfully, just because we lucked out in the past. And there will be a next one, that's essentially the message of the Gaia book, the challenges just keep coming.
I can understand that people prefer instead to delude themselves with magical thinking about a benevolent earth-organism.
> Lovelock "has warned that the biosphere is dying due to human action. He said two years ago that the biosphere is in the last 1% of its life."
The interviewer asked something like "Are you optimistic about human survival?" and Lovelock's reply was, roughly - "Oh yes, I am optimistic. I mean, there might be a bottleneck of the population down to a few thousands, but long term we will survive".
Talk about the large-scale view.
When you have massive interlocking systems of convection, atmospheric thermodynamics, tectonics, ocean currents and winds, all in concert through feedback loops, regulators, non-linear compression and expansion functions, multipliers, hysteresis and tipping points, you don't need to ascribe sentience, evolution or even biology to see the sum as "living".
Push here. it reacts there.
In the simplest analysis, overpopulation of "too successful" species leads to pandemics that wipe them out. Hardly a stretched metaphor.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmentalists_for_Nuclear
I'd also say that fossil fuels are very simple to understand; burn thing, generate power. Nuclear is much more 'magic'. And I don't doubt that the fossil fuel lobby is drastically larger than the nuclear power one, just so much more money in it
If we had decided to invest heavily in nuclear 20 years ago, we might not be in the mess we're in now, but it's probably too late for nuclear to help now. Look at Flamanville unit 3, for example. They started building it in 2007, and it still isn't producing power (in fact just this year they announced more delays to its start date).
Even if we abandoned all concerns about where they were built, and started building a load of them today, they probably wouldn't all be ready until after 2040 because there probably isn't enough spare capacity in skilled nuclear engineers to parallelise their production. By that time, batteries and power-to-gas could be cheaply supplying reliable energy to a grid that's over-provisioned with renewables, without having to worry about storing radioactive waste for thousands of years or proliferation risks.
When you start looking at overbuilding them to supply some kind of energy storage, or to meet even their nameplate capacity 100% of the time on average they suddenly become a lot more expensive. I posted elsewhere (and was downvoted) for posting one of the many studies of how much it actually costs to build a KW of energy using particular technologies in various countries, and it turns out that those numbers, can be summarized as: Nuke plants are expensive because we want them to be, they aren't as expensive in countries (South Korea, China, etc) where random people don't (or cant) sue to stop construction even when the reactors are the exact same technology being proposed in the US/Europe (because they parent company doing the design and construction is frequently US/European)
Followed by, wind farm's aren't cheap, and the prices only go up when you start talking about offshore and on the tops of mountain ranges.
So, its no surprise that people who just want cheap energy will continue to pick carbon sources.
Some people look at this differently, There are fundamental laws around energy density which tend to inform the economics (aka dig a ton a uranium and process it, or dig 10T to extract Neodymium, Lithium, etc and then built something that has 1/1000000th the energy density).
So, one can claim wind/solar are cheaper and getting cheaper, but its like comparing apples to oranges, there is a reason places like TX, which have a world leading level of wind installed, also have some of the dirtiest power around.
Sorta the computer equivalent of building ones datacenter around the raw price/perf of a given CPU/SoC, while ignoring every other variable. Then wondering why the HW ends up costing more per unit perf (cause maybe the motherboards cost more) and why the energy bill is eating your lunch (cause the cores are running at some extreme clock rate, and burning power).
Finally, to summarize, you simply cannot hand wave the largest problem with wind/solar away, which is the fact that they are not on demand dispatchable. To get reliable power of of them easily adds a good 10x cost multiplier or more if your not willing to use a carbon source as a backup. So, basically standing around yelling wind and solar, is the same as asking for more carbon. And using wind+solar+NG is cleaner than just NG along, but it actually costs just as much as Nukes built in countries without regulatory bodies setup to stop the construction of Nuke plants. Despite the fact that even plants built 50 years ago are the safest form of energy production in existence (safer than wind for sure) when measured by deaths per MWh.
https://www.e-education.psu.edu/eme811/node/682 “Minus field losses, the typical average overall efficiency of solar trough thermal plants is around 15-20%”. Your first sentence has an implicit contradiction! PV has efficiency of say 20%. I get that you are thinking about thermal storage, but the only sensible argument is overall economic costs, which you seem to be explicitly arguing against.
> I posted elsewhere (and was downvoted) for posting one of the many studies
If you have links explaining your position, I think always add them.
I strongly suspect you are mistaken in your reasoning about why you are getting downvoted. I’m not sure how to help you correctly guess why people downvote (sometimes their reasons are opaque), but I can tell you my own in this case:
I think your core point is interesting. However overall your comment across to me as waffling and mixing in opinionated misinformation and fact. Perhaps make one major point, with a modicum of supporting information. Avoid random tangents. Your comment here in particular appears to me to be mish-mashing implicit economic arguments with other issues.
Here are a couple links from my comment history, the first is a comparison of KW costs, and the second is an overview of what the Chinese are doing.
https://www.vox.com/2016/2/29/11132930/nuclear-power-costs-u... https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-pr...
I've repeatedly posted hard facts on this board and few people bother to do much research at all, overwhelmingly posting puff pieces and data which is obviously wrong (aka nameplate install/$, average capacity factors (because average doesn't tell you the worse case, which is required for a reliable grid)) and a bunch of other things that get hand waved away by "renewable" supporters, like the fact that in most places with a lot of "renewables" its actually 50+ year old hydro and not wind/solar providing the energy. Or that places with a lot of wind/solar are basically green washing their natural gas usage (like Germans are suddenly discovering).
edit: And to be clear, did you down vote the parent comment too, which states as fact something that is provably wrong (that nukes are more expensive than wind/solar, note the vox article which points out they were cheaper than natural gas plants at one point.), but commonly accepted, or did you let your own personal bias decide the misinformation he was repeating sounded correct?
We have. Which is why we started building out solar and wind 30 years ago. And now we're at 90% renewable and haven't used coal for 6 years.
But that's us, not you. How's the nuclear approach going? Built anything yet?
I know! I know! Pick me!
>...that isn't majority Hydro?
oh... never mind
"A total of 97.4% of gross energy consumption came from renewables, a rise of 8% on the year before."
"Of the Scottish Government’s renewable electricity target for 2015-2020, onshore wind accounted for 60.3% of the total, offshore wind 10.7%, and renewable hydro 18.1%, with other sources making up 8.3%."
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19499830.scotland-top-thre...
https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publ...
And they have a lot of pumped storage hydro...
They do get accounted for. One can explicitly account for them by running simulations, using actual weather data, to see how much of those external things would be needed.
If you do that, you discover nuclear isn't going to be cheaper in most places now. That natural gas is currently being used to fill in around renewables does not challenge this point.
TX for all the shit ERCOT gets, is very open (a google search will give you a bunch of data dashboards), very unregulated and capitalist driven power grid.
The weather is incredibly hard to predict and no one wants to take worse case projections against wind, because they don't look pretty. Instead in the case of ERCOT when the weather isn't cooperative, we get calls to conserve, and when that fails rolling blackouts. And we also get financial destabilization which leads the reliable operators to skip out on maintenance and things like weatherization.
https://physicstoday.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/PT.3.4088
> “The cost of new nuclear is prohibitive for us to be investing in,” says Crane. Exelon considered building two new reactors in Texas in 2005, he says, when gas prices were $8/MMBtu and were projected to rise to $13/MMBtu. At that price, the project would have been viable with a CO2 tax of $25 per ton. “We’re sitting here trading 2019 gas at $2.90 per MMBtu,” he says; for new nuclear power to be competitive at that price, a CO2 tax “would be $300–$400.” Exelon currently is placing its bets instead on advances in energy storage and carbon sequestration technologies.
(current natural gas price at the Henry Hub is $8.67/MMBtu, which is $5.70/MMBtu in 2005 dollars)
Note that the current tightness in ERCOT is tailor-made for solar. The recent weeks' daily demand peaks would be squashed by additional PV capacity, and no storage would be required.
https://www.ercot.com/gridmktinfo/dashboards
The modeling I was talking about can be found here.
It defaults to using 2030 projections for cost data, but that's ok because any new NPP effort started today likely would not be online before 2030, if then.
That's another problem with nuclear: it's competing against the renewables and storage of the next 40 years, not those of today. Going with nuclear (in addition to being optimistic about the cost of new nuclear) is making a bet that those stop decreasing in cost, and soon.
What the experts with skin in the game think can be seen by where the markets are allocating investment. It's into renewables, not into nuclear. From the point of view of the hardnosed financiers nuclear is a loser, and losers don't get money, they get shown the door. And yet, there's still this weird tech bro fixation with nuclear, for no reason that's grounded in reality.
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/gridmonitor/dashboard/electr...
Select generation by energy source.
Note, that while solar will probably do fine as long as its cutting off that peak 3-5PM time-frame, it falls off faster than the wind picks up (in general) and the NG plants then peak.
Move around in the year a bit, then flip to daily average.
See that, those are massive swings. One either overbuilds by a large factor, or one comes up with a storage mechanism to de-carbonize that. I'm betting given the political climate in TX the smart money is assuming that will never happen. So, the smart money would bet on just enough renewables to catch those peaks, and then fill in the rest with NG. Should that fail due to rising costs, there are coal plants.
PS: Texas has 4 reactors seen in that graph, producing ~4.7GW of power, which before the NG gas boom were regularly producing some of the cheapest power in the state. They are also some of the most recently constructed reactors in the US comming online in the early 1990s after 15 year construction cycles filled with lawsuits, and redesigns and every excuse in the book (STP actually had 3 different general contractors IIRC) to keep them from coming online, largely by environmentalists. If the remaining 4 reactors at the two sites and just two more sites with similar generation capacity were created it would more than wipe out the baseload carbon in the state leaving the NG plants only spinning up when the renewables failed. In the grand scheme of texas energy production, it would be a drop in the bucket of plant costs, even if they were constructed at the costs of the existing plants. If they could be constructed at the costs of reactors in the 1960's (aka less than NG plants) those price equations would flip on their heads. No one in their right mind would be building renewable energy sources, but because of politics and people who get in the way of Nuke plants, no one in their right mind will bet against gas.
I understand there is a large amount of solar in the pipeline in Texas. It's a no-brainer at this point.
Yes, Texas has reactors. Sunk costs are sunk. It would make no sense to build more, which is what that Exelon quote was saying. Really, it makes no sense to start a new reactor build anywhere in the US. All the AP 1000 efforts aside from Vogtle 3/4 have been terminated.
Anyway, I'm sure solar will be built, and the graph will look similar to the past 15 years of retail pricing.. AKA the solar will suppress the energy investment in other things until it fails catastrophically and retail customers are left holding the bills for all those NG plants that were quietly going out of business until the "black swan" event gave them some breathing room while simultaneously killing a few hundred more Texans and jumping the utility rates up again to pay for all the deferred maintenance on the generators of last resort.
https://www.texaselectricityratings.com/resources/historical...
Bottom line, while presumably installing a lot of really cheap energy Texas energy costs were going up, a little less than double if you factor in inflation.
Which makes sense, if you add the cost of the wind+NG, someone has to pay the bill for building surplus supply, and now we are going to have solar too, so best case a ~3x peak energy overbuild, while simultaneously not having enough to cover actual peak load when the weather doesn't cooperate.
So same as always, some smart investor will make off with a bunch of money from the solar plants, the carbon emissions might decrease slightly, still leaving us with one of the dirtiest energy generation mixes, and likely 3x higher energy bills than just using natural gas 100% of the time.
A winning formula for sure. Unless of course someone actually invents a battery technology that is cheaper than NG plants and can literally store the 10's of TW's required to bridge those black swan weather events that seem to be happening more and more frequently as we continue pumping CO2 in the atmosphere while playing around the edges with wind/solar.
Texas needs a bunch of solar, a bit of battery, that would cover peaks due to air conditioning. More insulation specified in residential building codes wouldn't hurt.
Once most Texans have EVs that charge with solar, and plug in at night and feed to the grid, the solution is even more obvious.
https://www.ercot.com/mktinfo/prices
edit: As I post it, there is a prime example of how people wave away transmission issues when talking about green energy. The wind farms on the coast near MX have a negative price (-11 to -33) while most of the state is sitting at ~90, and there is a problem in the west/central part of the state where its $180.
Solar can be placed almost anywhere in Texas, and in particular can be placed near where demand is expected. Transmission costs for it should be less than for large central power plants.
If land cost ever were a serious constraint on solar, solar would have become so cheap that it would already have destroyed all the competition.