Will the Musk Twitter deal close?

manifold.markets

2 points·cosmojg··6 comments

Here's a pretty good breakdown on where things currently lie:

Ultimately it seems to depend on what Musks true intentions are. Is this some kind of 4D chess move, or is he simply not interested in the company any longer? If it's the latter he likely ends up paying to walk away.

I was torn between sharing a link to the homepage and sharing a link to an interesting market. I think this is a really cool alternative to real-money markets like Polymarket[1] and fake-money markets like Metaculus[2] given the perilous regulatory environment. I'm curious to see what HN thinks.

[1] https://polymarket.com/market-group/will-twtr-be-delisted-fr...

[2] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1079/will-elon-musk-even...

Actual TWTR shares are currently a prediction market on whether the deal will go through or not, there’s no need for a low volume derivative prediction market. Short or long the shares to place your bets (or use options)

Oooh, I wonder if there's an arbitrage opportunity here.

The delta between this and "Will Elon Musk buy Twitter this year?" [1] is pretty interesting to me. I would interpret this as that in the minority of people that think it will close, a majority of them think it will happen soon (presumably the court orders specific performance and Musk rolls over), and a minority thinks it will drag out (appeals, etc presumably).

[1] https://manifold.markets/SG/will-elon-musk-buy-twitter-this-...

Looks like ~45% probability that the deal closes before January 1st, 2024 versus ~27% probability that it closes before January 1st, 2023. So 3:2 odds that, if it closes, it will close this year rather than next.

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