It's not, it's about a coinflip (as the sibling reply noted). But you're making a very salient point about the ease at which higher order thinking can be shut down en masse in a population through fear.
Yes, there are situations in which "higher order thinking" doesn't matter.
That's the sort of higher-order question you'll be able to find out right after the magical Ebola wave, if you embrace authoritarianism.