Two weeks in, the Webb Space Telescope is reshaping astronomy
quantamagazine.org
quantamagazine.org
That should be a really good way to check our models are accurate!
But could a photon make such a journey? Yes. But you'd never be able to recognize it against everything else.
[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_known_black_...
By measuring the time delay and the separations between the images you can get an estimate of the Hubble constant.
It's really cool to see all the additional, older galaxies visible in JWST's infrared which were not previously visible to Hubble!
[1] https://www.discovermagazine.com/the-sciences/how-the-1919-s...
https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/goddard/2022/nasa-s-webb-...
Serious question. Or can its interference be filtered out effectively?
Space telescopes these days are primarily being designed for observations that simply can't be done while in the atmosphere (eg the wavelengths JWST and NGR look at). The value of a space telescope in the same wavelength range as what ground based telescopes usually use would mainly benefit in terms of being able to have much longer exposures.
Disclaimer. Not a physicals or astronomer, just a enthusiastic backyard amateur astronomer who reads a lot about telescopes .
Even considering the effect of Starlink.
What starlink does is ruin part of the images, and if the thing you were interested in observing happens to be blocked by a starlink trail you're hosed: a thing literally blocked what you tried to see and you lost the nigh (because usually you get just a bit of the a night for your observation). Other things that ruins your night is clouds, so starlink effectively makes the weather at a site worse, only you find out after the night that it was all a waste.
To some extent you can plan around it, but as the mega constellations grow they'll have to avoid each other more frequently and there's no rules for how that shits coordinated, so you maybe you can know in advance that the night is wasted.
But the risk that a satellite is in an undocumented orbit by the time you try to observe will likely be very high in the future.
The length of the occlusion isn't very relevant when the thing going in front is orders of magnitudes brighter than what you are trying to observe.
Example: https://imgb.srgcdn.com/5i9W2KZAXha7p27YHHR2.png?width=1024 good luck extracting any data from behind that flash.
* LISA: LIGO In Space (Amazing!).
* LUVOIR: JWST but even bigger and UV.
https://www.wired.com/story/nasa-might-put-a-huge-telescope-...
It measures the parallax shift of stars, and is basically the one reliable way of directly measuring how far away a star is from us. Unfortunately, it's at L2, and therefore has a baseline of 1 AU. Another Gaia way out at 20AU would have capacities no Earth-based telescope could ever have.
https://www.space.com/nasa-telescope-far-side-of-moon.html
Though I'm not sure if it will ever be built.
In any event, many many areas to aim at, and relatively limited funding unfortunately.
If you compare how the JWST was folded, the width of the individual segments was already close to the maximum allowable diameter of the launch vessel. Leaving the rest of that launch vessel empty won't get you a much bigger final mirror.
Starship is 9 meters wide.
https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2021/11/17/science-upside...
How do you figure? A fleet of space telescopes research teams could interact with through an API without much cost and zero approval, would for sure advance science by a lot. I find it weird to see a statement like this, so maybe you have something else in mind. It's a stretch to go from "building a different one would give new classes of insights" to "having more people being able to use this thing we only have 1 of a kind is barely worth it".
100 % someone would point at the sun by accident and burn all the sensors within six months if access is unrestricted and the api is powerful.
In any case easy access to data will mostly result in data lying idle on disks somewhere because people are busy doing something more interesting. Analysing data is many months of work, and you don't get more months just because there is more data.
One thing I am curious about is how many spare parts were produced - in small scale high precision manufacturing like this there's often multiples of components produced, with only the highest spec components shipped out. What could we cobble together with the rejects and leftovers? And what would that give us, results wise?
Measuring the sun shield alone was a 5+ year long project.
Now take this as a fact and next time someone makes an accusation use it to show a history.
Anyway, he's substantially if not completely correct and it's not hard to find sources backing up the connection between the HST and KH-11 spy satellites if you bother to look it up. In the sibling comment to yours, I provide a link to a book about NASA, hosted on NASA's website a few years ago, that says Hubble's primary mirror was fabricated using technology developed for the military, that a 2.4 meter mirror was specifically chosen to make that reuse possible. The mirrors were almost certainly manufactured by the same people on the same tools. Read the wiki page for the KH-11 and you'll see that the apparently similarities run deeper than that. Dimensions and general structure of the satellites are also believed to be the the same. None of this is fringe.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KH-11_KENNEN
And if any of the above is too speculative or unsubstantiated for you, try this on for size: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_National_Reconnaissance_O...
And this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMT_Observatory#Multiple_Mirro...
> "In addition, changing to a 2.4-meter mirror would lessen fabrication costs by using manufacturing technologies developed for military spy satellites."
https://web.archive.org/web/20110615091530/http://history.ms...
Especially the strong implication that Hubble is made out of lower tolerance parts, since they are rejects, is a claim that need significantly more evidence than what you provided here.
Pointing a telescope at something bright and nearby is easier than something very distant and dim, so the precision requirements are obviously in the opposite direction.
You're wrong. Between 1979 and 1998 the MMT Observatory used six repurposed spy satellite mirrors that had been donated by the NRO, manufactured for the cancelled KH-10. Furthermore in 2012 the NRO donated two unflown spy satellites to NASA, the mirrors from which may be used for the upcoming Roman Space Telescope. Spy satellite mirrors make great telescope mirrors.
> "manufactured parts from intelligence programs [...]"
As I point out above, the NRO has donated at least eight primary mirrors that were specifically manufactured for cancelled or unused spy satellites. The Hubble mirror may be another example of such, or it may have merely been fabricated by the same people.
> that were the rejects from those production lines".
That's the only dodgy part of his claim, but it's not that strange of a claim when you recall that Hubble's primary mirror infamously had a spherical aberration. I presume NASA didn't know about the aberration before they launched HST, otherwise they should have corrected for it on the ground instead of having astronauts correct it in space. But it doesn't seem completely outlandish that the NRO gave NASA mirrors they had previously deemed unsuitable for their own use.
As an example, the MMT observatory was so happy with the "cobble six telescopes together" design foisted upon them by the donation of the mirrors that within 8 years of completion they were officially[1] reporting they hoped to replace them with a single mirror by 1993. Honestly I think the MMT is the only telescope I've heard of where the main mirror was so bad they opted to replace it with a completely different design within 20 years.
Anyway, the Hubble mirror has a different focal length than the KH-11 so can't have been used as is, it would have to be reground and polished for the new curvature and so it would have been essentially just a mirror blank.
[1] https://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu/pdf/1988BAAS...20..366.
Well, it did ship with a faulty mirror after all :)
Just joking, I know this was a manufacturing error specific to Hubble which kinda proves it wasn't a reused part. I think the mirror would have a slightly different focal length anyway? But maybe 400k is far enough to be "infinity" even at that scale.
> I know this was a manufacturing error specific to Hubble which kinda proves it wasn't a reused part.
It was ground very precisely into the wrong shape during the final stage of manufacturing. But I don't think that proves anything one way or the other. Even if the mirrors were finished in unique ways, they may have started identical earlier in manufacturing.
It was said at the time that the aberration made the Hubble near-sighted and, indeed, was corrected with lenses. I had suspected, apparently incorrectly according to yours and others comments indicating that spy satellite mirrors are interchangeable with and used for astronomy without alteration, that the mistake was one of habit, because I figured they were ordinarily making near-sighted mirrors to specification to focus up to a few hundred miles rather than stellar or galactic distances. I am honestly am still having trouble accepting that a mirror designed for a telescope to look no further than a few hundred miles is identically focused to infinity precisely like similar telescopes that are designed to peer with a lower bound of at least millions of miles. But if you say so.
Consider the 2.4m lens to be the base of an isosceles triangle with a height of 100km, the edge of space and much lower than the satellite's orbit. This triangle has two angles of 89.9993 degrees. If the lens was 10cm thick and you wanted to taper the edges to match this angle, you'd need to bring in the near edge one micron, or about 1/50 of a human hair.
100km or 100,000 lightyears, they're still effectively straight away (focused to infinity).
That's just not what focal length means in the context of mirrors, the focussing happens by moving the secondary not by re-grinding the entire primary mirror or whatever it is you are imagining.
I'm guessing this is standard practise.
So one james web space telescope costs 10 billion and take 20 years to build. However two space telescopes cost 10 billion 100 million and take the same twenty years to build. three would be 10B 200M + 20Y etc.
But this would of only worked if you built the second one at the same time you had the setup and test facilitys prepared for building the first one, I will be generous and assume the r & d is not so space and time critical.
Personally I think the main argument for making a second is that you are putting this thing in a location where it cannot be serviced. The parable of having all your eggs in one basket comes to mind.
[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/nasa-...
Politically: no
The Roman Space Telescope is a wide field instrument that is now under development and slated to launch in 2026 [1]. The Astro2020 decadal survey from the National Academies also recommended “a large (~6m diameter) Infrared/Optical/Ultraviolet space telescope” to observe exoplanets [2].
[1]: https://spacenews.com/nasa-selects-falcon-heavy-to-launch-ro...
[2]: https://nap.nationalacademies.org/resource/26141/interactive...
And the bill of materials is unlikely to have been the primary cost factor. Extensive research, development, and testing was performed.
Roman is next in queue with many of its parts already built and operational around 2028.
With already unanticipated levels of micrometeorite collision and mirror damage [1], I'm worried we may not see a full service life out of JWST.
All of the "look what the JWST has accomplished in two weeks" press seems like drumming up accolades in advance of an early retirement.
I hope I'm wrong.
[1] https://www.space.com/james-webb-space-telescope-micrometeor...
I'm wondering how well it's going to do as we pass through the Perseid cloud. I just did a search online and nothing obvious came up about it.
I don't know if the debris is (are?) spread out enough to affect the area around the moon, and I'm sure NASA has planned for it, but the news of that meteor which lit up over the Midwest made me wonder how the telescope is faring.
Reasonable question but JWST is a lot smaller than Earth.
What a dramatic accusation to shut down conversation. That's frankly uncalled for.
I'm expressing fears about a very expensive and time consuming investment.
A positive media spin for NASA means their budget remains unscrutinized and unfettered.
I never said NASA is telling the media to say these things. It may be a general sense of "talk highly about our expensive things so we can keep doing expensive things". How any department, public or private, keeps getting itself funded.
We're seeing a lot of these pieces. It feels as though scientists are telling journalists this byline, because it's everywhere. Nothing wrong with that.
> I'm wondering how well it's going to do as we pass through the Perseid cloud.
I don't think we know yet. We're about to find out.
Wow. No, it doesn't.
More advice: You're probably just hungry or in a bad mood. Whenever I overreact on HN or taken something the wrong way (which sadly has happened more than once) that's usually the issue. Go have something sweet to increase your blood sugar, maybe take a walk. It'll help. :-)
It's a simile.
“It is not yet clear whether the May 2022 hit to segment C3 was a rare event.”
No credit is being falsely attributed to him here.
>>> “We worked nonstop,” said Pascale. “It was like an escape room.”
Astronomers (not necessarily cosmologists, or physicists) it seems are finding many reasons to be very busy with the streams of data coming from this device.
https://d2r55xnwy6nx47.cloudfront.net/uploads/2022/07/NGC749...
The wikipedia article does note that pseudo-color is an alternative, and that carries less generally negative connotation.
This is all nitpicking anyway, but thanks for the bit of education!
[added - although now I can pick at the definition of "true color", since it is based on the idea of how a color would appaer to a human viewer. We know pretty well that there's quite a variance of perception of color amongst humans, so there arguably is no "true color". There's just X% of people see this color. :) ]
Perhaps it's like most other things in life. In hindsight, we might have done it differently.
In this case, there are probably better, more descriptive (and less confusing) adjectives than "fictitious" which would succinctly describe a non-existent but perceived (or imagined) force.
Even so, I never visualized something pushing me back into the seat. I always visualized the seat pressing against me. After all, I didn't feel sensations on the front of my body when accelerating. The sensations are the same as if someone has come from behind and starting pushing you.
I’ve been unable to find any technical reports on the technique, but the gist of it is here: https://www.axios.com/2022/07/17/james-webb-space-telescope-...
Most stellar objects emit a whole bunch of wavelengths of light, some emit more IR than visible. Interstellar dust doesn't red shift light due to velocity but because the molecules absorb higher energy photons and re-emit lower energy photons.
Think of it this way: If you take a picture from a mountain, things in the distance will look bluer than they are when you are close, but does this mean that all the pictures taken from mountaintops have "fake" colours that need to be corrected?
In this sense redshift is just another thing that makes things change colour as the distance increases.
No. There are basically two things influencing the colors of galaxies, their age (young ones have bright, blue stars, old ones are more red) and their distance. In the first "unveil" image of the gravitational lens, you can find several extremely red objects (that are completely absent in the HST images if you do a side by side comparison). These are likely extremely distant galaxies where the "blue"/"green" bands in the JWST image (and all the HST bands) are very faint because it falls in the extreme UV in the galaxy's rest wavelengths.
https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/chemistry-colors-i...
Equating the two is possible, but lazy.
But if it seems to you too vague, then I can come to a point from a different angle: did you hear about tetrachromacy? "A study from 2010 actually suggests that a rare condition known as tetrachromacy exists in up to 12% of women in the world."[1] Don't you think that these women see colors in a "more true" way than other people? I personally think they are. It means, at least, that a more common way of a trichromacy is not the true way to see colors. It gives us not true colors, but some approximation which is very far from reality.
You mentioned "most humans" as a reference point, so probably you believe that the truth can be established by a voting. I do not. I know that the objective truth is an unattainable ideal, but I do not believe that the majority of votes would be enough to establish an acceptable approximation to the ideal. It needs something more than that.
The JWST sees in infrared. Our eyes don’t. This makes it not representative of what we would see with our eyes.
Though most things probably look pretty similar in visible light.
Not all the wavelengths these telescopes capture can be seen by the human eye so some post processing is necessary for the "publicity shots"
A lot of the real science is not done visually but by analysing the data
Webb and Hubble have different filters so what does this mean? Did they just take some Webb filters and pretended they where Hubble filters and ran their old code?
Still, would be interesting I think.
The JWST literally cannot take colour images, the colours are entirely a post processing choice.
And there really isn't any obvious choice either, I suspect they chose colour values so the end result looks like a Hubble image.
Your wall would look very different depending on whether the sun or your lamp shines on it. Or maybe you're in complete darkness?
What does the sun look like up close? Your eyes would malfunction.
A picture could look very different depending on lens and camera settings.
Your perception could be very different from that of someone who has just woke up in a dark room, walked in from the sun, or peaking on acid.
I guess "convey information" would be an important principle to both brains and astronomists.
What if you were to be a species distinct from whatever you are now? With different eyes, perception and cognition?
What if you're looking out the window of a spaceship at relativistic speed? Is is it fake?
Webb can do "imaging spectroscopy", where it can take an image, but it will take a spectrum and every pixel of the image as well. In imaging spectroscopy, there is information on the spectrum of wavelengths present in each tiny piece of the image. This can help clue scientists in as to what elements or chemicals might have created that spectrum.
https://www.space.com/james-webb-space-telescope-hubble-imag...
Both Hubble and Webb also take observations with fairly narrow filters. In a PR image these essentially grayscale images are mapped to a color channel, red, green, or blue. The wavelength mapped to the "red" channel might be a mix of 650nm and 600nm filters. This blend will not look like what your eye would see but makes for a pretty desktop wallpaper.
Webb in particular only sees in the IR bands which your eye can't see. Making a PR images from Webb images arbitrarily maps IR wavelengths to RGB channels.
That's not to say a researcher won't filter and process the raw data. But their goal is to extract useful scientific information and not just produce an attractive image. They'll spend more time looking at graphs from the raw data than the actual 2D array of pixels.
For instance, if you know the composition for an object you know what it's spectra should look like. If you compare that spectra to what's received you can calculate the red shift of every pixel. Doing this for the whole image can then let you tell the red shift of an entire object giving an idea of its proper motion relative to us. For say a nebula this can show how it's moving and give an understanding of its 3D structure even though the images are all 2D.
I don't mean to disparage the PR images. They can often be used to explain phenomena to non-experts (not that I'm an expert). But they're never really going to show what the human eye might see, most stellar objects would look like mostly diffuse white blobs even "up close". Most things emit a number of wavelengths which just mix and look white to us. It's only with narrow band filters that telescopes can actually pick out fine details of most objects.
About false color... Real things in the universe have real color -- they emit light in a variety of wavelengths -- even when that color is outside of the perceptual range of your eyes. The colorized photos like the ones released by NASA or Nebula Photos just expose the real relative color differences present in the original data, just shifted into a range that is you are able to perceive. "false color" images are definitely not someone taking a colored pencil to a black and white photo of a nebula and "coloring it in" to look nice, the colors are actually meaningful and give you more information about everything that the telescope actually detected than what a black and white photo could show alone.
It's amazing to see the structure in such colorized images or even the picture of our Milky Way. I wonder, without the colorization, say, to a human eye, would such images appear mostly black (black-and-white)?
https://www.stsci.edu/jwst/science-execution/observing-sched...
https://www.stsci.edu/jwst/science-execution/approved-progra...
But in seriousness, if the observation schedule is going to be listed publicly, I'd imagine it would be on the Space Telescope Science Institute's website as they are in charge of the telescope's usage.
It really does happen.
Things like a Sagan 'pale blue dot' image would be a longer shot, but astronomers are humans, too -- if there's a very cool and human idea out there, the committees might be receptive there. (i.e., catching the glint of light off a Mars Observer solar panel or some such thing).
So we're off by "just" a factor of 10,000,000 on resolution :-(
It's too bad, that would be so cool.
[1] https://www.space.com/17651-pioneer-10.html#:~:text=This%20s.... [2] https://theskylive.com/how-far-is-pioneer10#:~:text=The%20di.... [3] https://www.spaceanswers.com/astronomy/ten-reasons-why-nasas...
Incidentally, there was a lot more to that imaging campaign -- Voyager captured a "Family Portrait" of our solar system as its last imaging hurrah: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_Portrait_(Voyager)
Though it would be cool to see a 9 star rack and one super fast white star heading toward them.
But apparently god does not play pool with the universe.
https://www.britannica.com/science/CNO-cycle
Apparently you don't create oxygen in stars by smashing two beryllium together.
Edit: interestingly, this article provides a different path, claiming C + He = O
https://www.sciencelearn.org.nz/resources/1727-how-elements-...
Granted, there are some breakthroughs that come from military research, being generous that would still amount to a small fraction of what we could be discovering and improving if the goals were different.
And honestly, we should be spending $$$$ on food development research. We're going to need to know how to grow food in new ways soon, as the old ways have reached their limits. Food seems kind of important...
Not that we get that much for the money: probably most of it is simple (wholly-legal!) graft, as with NASA's SLS rocket.
https://www.vox.com/2015/6/23/8832311/war-casualties-600-yea...
You can see that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, deaths per population from warfare dropped off a cliff. Unfortunately deterrence is hard to quantify because it's about making things not happen.
A vast amount of US "defense" spending since 9/11 has been a "war on money" in the form of massive unending offensive plays against countries that had/have undesirable aspects, but that didn't declare war on the US.
Eh, not really.
A whole lot of the world's agriculture is done far from optimally. Funding agriculture university programs in Africa with extension programs like the land grant universities in the US would do great things. Disseminating information, tools, and capital for "third world" farms is the best thing that can be done for global food supplies.
Every region that is currently dependent upon remotely grown food must learn how to grow more of their food locally. Maybe these will be high efficiency vertical farms, or maybe something else. But "merely" improving the efficiency of farming half a world away isn't going to be enough. And further, our current "efficient" farming is unsustainable. Our high output methods are causing many negative effects, not the least of which is soil quality degredation. Our soils are near barren and require immense additives (fertilizers) to enable us to continue high yield farming. And returning to the supply chain topic, fertilizer availability is on that list.
A shift in growing crops more adapted to the local climate reality is also an important shift. A lot of places grow staple crops brought by colonizers centuries ago, which are ill suited to the local soil and require additional resources to grow, whereas less known types of grain and fruit/veg could be grown to produce higher yields with less effort and be more hardy in the area's temp/precipitation/soil.
Initial costs of setting up local food growth might seem exorbitant, but would bring a lot of long-term cost reduction for people.
Added bonus to this is reducing pollution caused by worldwide shipments of produce, and improving food taste as things grown nearby don't need to be harvested early and ripened in route, refrigerated, treated for pests.
Another thing that would be beneficial, and this is the idealist in me speaking, is giving people the empowerment to control their own food supply, boosting communities, giving people the means to have more autonomy over their basic needs so they're not reliant on a global market currently dealing with a variety of issues, mitigating the risk that food imported will be scarce or too expensive for families to feed their members.
Nobody knew at the time that Hubble was literally a KH-11 class telescope, but one pointed the other way. The mirror size and the ability to be carried in the shuttle was probably to get some synergies out of those two projects.
"Accessory to War" is a pretty deep take on this topic.
Actually, I think the best thing we can learn from the military would be how to organize and mobilize large numbers of people toward some goal. The same could be said for religion. Then it's down to choosing a good goal...
I've pondered what would happen if we could dedicate one weekend per month of sports to community improvement instead. Where I grew up, sports were a big part of life. Every weekend the many fields and venues were full of people working together (and competing). Just imagine if they could all be organized to put their energy (just one weekend per month) into goals that would benefit everyone in the area. Perhaps military command structures and communication processes could be of value here...
Of course not. Forcing people to volunteer is... not effective long term.
Anyway, I long since left that Texas city which gave me the idea. I know amateur and professional sporting happens all around, but I don't encounter it much (so I forgot about the idea until now). I'm onto other things, although I still think this is a good idea. I know some churches organize their members to do good community services periodically, so I don't think it's a stretch to imagine sporting communities to make a routine of doing the same.
Along these lines, there's a lot of hearsay that the technology that enabled JWST's mirrors, sun shade, etc. to be folded up for launch and deployed once in space had already been developed for military satellites.
You'd get conquered and your conqueror would have more money to spend on their military?
And even if you did manage to zero out the military budget without getting conquered, it's completely unreasonable to think that money would be reallocated to "research and science" in a democratic society. Almost all of it would go into stuff like basic infrastructure, social programs, and maybe culture war stuff. While comfortably employed geeks may sit in awe of the pretty space pictures, most people have more quotidian concerns they care far more about.
So the fantasy is really one about a science-enthusiast world-dictator securely protected by his secret police.
As for freedom of navigation, China is also in favor of that. It's their lifeblood.
Sorta-kinda. It’s complicated.
Vietnam, the US, the Philippines and others have clashed with China over the “Nine Dash Line.” China— and Taiwan, oddly enough— refuses to respect the ruling of the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) Tribunal on this matter. They’ve harassed other countries’ fishing vessels and maritime police in the region, sinking at least one. There are ongoing tensions in the area between China and other countries’ navies. China asserts sovereignty over almost the entire South China Sea, while other countries and the UNCLOS disagree and assert their right to freedom of navigation for military vessels. This has implications for customs and maritime law enforcement.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/07/chinese-vietna...
Some people in Taiwan might be willing to give that up in exchange for a guarantee of independence but as far as I know this is not at all a settled matter for them. It’s very much like North Korea/South Korea.
China does not object to transit through the South China Sea. China objects to foreign military vessels entering into the territorial waters within 12 miles of what it considers its own islands. The US and its allies conduct these "freedom of navigation" operations explicitly in order to challenge Chinese sovereignty over said islands and reefs.
But what you're discussing here is sovereignty over a certain set of islands and reefs that China (and several other countries) claims, not freedom of navigation through international waters.
China's aim is, quite clearly, to prevent the US Navy from operating in the South China Sea in the case of a war. That's not a question of freedom of navigation, and the US "freedom of navigation" operations have to go out of their way to go near the islands China claims.
China is additionally interested in the resources under the South China Sea, just as all the other countries that occupy various islands and reefs are. This, again, is not an issue of freedom of navigation.
China isn't about to block shipping through the South China Sea.
We are unlikely to ever fight a meaningful war with either Canada or Mexico, at least there are no signs of that ever being a possibility in my lifetime. Our adversaries are pretty much all overseas, and I’m pretty sure the Coast Guard could single-handedly defend against the threat posed by a possible Cuban invasion.
So we have to spend on logistics and overseas bases and support infrastructure for those bases, in addition to our nuclear arsenal, satellites, the War against rust, communications technology, aircraft carriers, aircraft, submarines and artillery and all manner of other things which are intended to keep us in the lead in terms of capabilities, effectiveness and deadliness.
I don't think it's that simple: stuff costs more in the US vs other big military spenders, large != effective, etc. If the US cut its military budget, it would have to give up capabilities, and that will have bitter consequences (e.g. the liberal order will shrink even further (e.g. goodbye Ukraine, Taiwan, Baltics), China owns the seas, etc.).
Russia has been an excellent motivator for our allies to get serious on defense spending.
Our absurdly oversized military has prevented a lot of serious wars.
The guys like him and Putin are ignorant little boys who will thankfully die off soon. We must try to find a different path.
Obama also pushed for more spending in NATO - and got commitments to do so as % of GDP. Growth was generally higher but spending was moving towards the % committed to.
What the last guy did was tried to piss out allies off and destroy NATO. Even then most in the US generally agreed w.r.t defense spending, just thought he was going about getting our allies to do it counter productively and not recognizing the fact that they were spending more (mostly from commitments made during Obama's 2 terms).
Folks who worked with trump claim he was planning on pulling the US out of NATO in his second term:
https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/obama-nato-pay-fair-s... https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/obama-warns...
https://www.businessinsider.com/bolton-putin-waiting-for-tru... https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politic...
It's an illogical phrase to be sure.
"2 times (but instead of mutiplying do the oposite thing that makes it smaller)"
Is where the "logic" comes from.
Hm, I bet this parses as well:
"An hour is .5 times more then a half hour."
Although not quite as well.
that said, when I read it I did not notice. my brain automagically converted the phrase to half. the context was not lost but it is murky territory
I don't know how that calculus changes in the context of modern superpowers or China's ambitions for Taiwan but that's the reasoning historically.
A perfect reason a country may understate their military spending is to hide their capabilities. For that matter, they may overstate their spending as well.
Overstating their capabilities is perfectly understandable.
The theory is new to me, so I don't know enough about it to know how much I buy into it, but it's an interesting one.
While they continue to have more money allocated to them, operational mishaps occur more often, and navies look increasingly vulnerable in a real fight (see for instance the Moskva). Clearly "at least some of that military spending in the past was extremely effective and useful" isn't sufficient guidance on how to continue spending money.
As the great Gil Scott-Heron once said: "A rat done bit my sister, Nell with whitey on the moon."
I didn't know the reference, but I found it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nzoPopQ7V0 (2 min)
I think that's a failure of imagination, and that vision isn't one that history necessarily supports. Humans used to exist in small roving bands. Now we are organized into nation-states. I don't see a truly compelling reason why that trend towards greater organization can't continue. I am also certainly capable of imagining a world government that is responsive to the needs of people, maintains global peace and security, and focuses the vast majority of its budget towards constructive, not destructive, ends.
I recognize that this doesn't look likely in the immediate future, but:
- An alternative consisting of warring nations equipped with civilization-ending weapons is surely not the only path forward (it better not be, if we hope to stick around).
- We are increasingly faced with existential problems that require a globally coordinated response.
- Change often happens a lot faster than we think possible. The order of things is set in stone until suddenly it's washed away and everything is different.
The former is the answer to the latter here. Humanity is trending to a more unified, globalized, monolithic series of structures. Smaller cultures, countries and people groups have been conquered, dimmed, and "globalized". You can easily observe this in art and architecture.
To be clear: you need both. Ironically, thinking that you can exist without a defensive military response is the real failure of imagination :/.
Humans used to exist in small roving bands.
Now we are organized into nation-states.
I don't see a truly compelling reason why that
trend towards greater organization can't continue.
Empathy and compassion.It's reasonable expectation for a person to care about the others in their "small, roving band." Evolution has selected for those that do, or at least it did for most of human history.
But how far does that scale? Can we truly care about everybody in a village of 100? What about a territory with 1000 people? What about a small country of 100,000? What about a nation with 1,000,000 people or 1,000,000,000 people?
We're not robots. If we were, then larger organizational structures would perhaps clearly be the way. Look at all the wasted, duplicated effort between countries and states.
But we're humans and we need some level of empathy and compassion for our fellow group-members for this stuff to work. When the organizational structure gets large enough it becomes dominated by cliques, infighting, etc. Now you just have warring nation-states with an extra level of abstraction.
I think we're seeing this right now in the United States. This country is too big, too populous, too divided to be effective any more. Unified successes like Webb are quickly becoming the exception, not the norm.
We now have the benefit of awareness. We can know what is happening to far away people. If anything, the current obvious changes in climate/weather and the associated impacts are evidence that we should have some motivation to care about things that impact those beyond just our own group (even though selfishly speaking it is because we know it ultimately will benefit our local group too).
When there is a major disaster, you will see people with very differing opinions drop their "simple" conflicts and work together. There is some recognizable human drive to help those visibly in need. Or maybe it's just an instintive behavior to ensure human survival.
Really, most of our political and ideological squabbles are manufactured by "leaders", and adopted by followers because we all have too much time on our hands. If we were collectively operating in survival mode, I think we might be a more cohesive society. Not that I'm asking for that; I like comfort.
When there is a major disaster, you will
see people with very differing opinions
drop their "simple" conflicts and work
together.
This is true, and one of the best parts of human nature.But does it scale to tricky, nuanced, thorny questions?
A natural disaster is an entirely unambiguous event. We all think, "Earthquake bad. People trapped under rubble bad." and want to help them directly or indirectly. Some of us help more vigorously than others and some do nothing, but we all agree that the earthquake is bad and we would like the poor victims to suffer less.
It's harder to scale this cohesion up to tackle issues that are actually thorny and nuanced. Look at how fractured many countries were regarding COVID-19 and the vaccines, for example. Or the eternal Israel/Palestine conflict. Or whatever.
But yeah, there are many things we could better be spending the defence budget on than galaxy formation research.
Trump stupidly described other NATO members as "owing" the US. Not only had several countries met their spending goals by the end of the Obama admin most of the alliance was on track with increased spending including targeted equipment upgrade spending. Trump's complaints were that other NATO members hadn't met their goals ahead of the agreed upon schedule. This was going to be used for a pretext for withdrawing the US from NATO.
NATO funding is not a simple issue. There's direct and indirect expenditures that "fund" NATO. It's not some protection racket. Funding can be direct funding I.e. military units/equipment maintained as a rapid response force or indirect funding I.e. spending to upgrade or buy equipment to keep up with the overall norms of the alliance.
I really don't see how our imagination has shrunk so far that we all participant and perpetuate this fantasy that a world full of violence, much of which is created by the US, is the world we must continue to live in.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_the_Roman_army
The military was the “the largest item of state expenditure” during much of China’s Tang Dynasty.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-chinese-h...
Compared to this, 4% of the US GDP or 12% of annual US federal spending seems like a bargain, especially if you’re Germany.
I think this stop being true in 1945.
Huh? Russia (nee the Soviet Union) and the US are neighbors, if you've forgotten. They had a big ideological rivalry that started to get intense around that time.
The world changed.... You dont need an 800bn standing army any more.
There is no proof of that, not historic or otherwise. In fact there is evidence to the contrary, as previous times of less military spending seem to correlate with more peaceful times. Your claim on who lives in a fantasy world is entirely unfounded, and one can just as easily state that your description is the fantacy one.
What is the evidence? My impression has been militarily weak countries got invaded by stronger ones. Smaller countries were snapped up by bigger ones. I’m curious to see the evidence to the contrary.
Pre-industrialization, governments used to spend upwards to 90% GDP on their military, and tiny countries existed back then as they do today. Today there are quite a few smaller countries (and a handful of medium sized ones) that don’t even have military at all. I think your narrative of smaller countries being snapped up by bigger ones is not a historic pattern at all.
You see this in business, where companies climb to the top through aggression and innovation, but then become laggards and protectionists (and ultimately fall away). You see it in countries. You see it in technologies. Heck, you see it in biological systems.
Perhaps that's just a normal part of the greater process, these cycles of growth, innovation, collaboration, etc., followed by stagnation and decay (and then death, or near-death, whereby the system returns to the growth effort).
The nice thing about being human is that we theoretically have the capacity to choose what our goals are (assuming our basic needs are currently met). As such, we could be choosing to work on goals such as "everyone always has food, shelter, and physical safety". This surely must be achievable, but maybe it would take virtually everyone working toward this goal. It's not really a sexy way to spend your time if you are already fortunate enough to have those things... such as if you live in a place rich in resources and with relatively few people. You would not be particularly compelled to contribute to the wellbeing of others, especially if you could not see them. But we have the privilege of awareness and knowledge, so we can see that there are still many people without even food or water. We could do something about this if we made it our focus.
And it might just turn out that having this collective focus would save our collective lives later. There's a reasonable chance that humanity will face a food crisis due to climate change and population growth. Practicing now at learning how to solve these problems might mean the difference between humans existing into 2100 or not.
Like the Internet that you are using right now.
Having said that, I just posted across thread on why I think we still need the people with guns, so if that's the case we might as well take the incidental benefits where they come.
1. AI – Artificial intelligence
2. Cellular Communication Technology
3. Computers
4. CPU – Central Processing Units – Microprocessors
5. DRAM – Dynamic Random-Access Memory
6. DSP – Digital Signal Processing
7. GMR – Giant Magnetoresistance – Spintronics
8. GPS – Global Positioning Systems
9. HDD – Micro Hard Drive Storage or Hard Drive Disks
10. HTML Hypertext Markup Language and HTTP – Hypertext Transfer Protocol
11. IC-Integrated Circuits
12. Internet
13. LCDs – Liquid-Crystal Displays
14. Li-ion – Lithium-Ion Batteries
15. Multi-Touch Screens
Probably a good time to reprise the fascinating Steve Blank presentation on "The Secret History of Silicon Valley" [1]
[0] https://www.techevaluate.com/your-cell-phone-was-born-in-the...
[1] http://info.cern.ch/Proposal.html
[2] https://united-states.cern/funding
[3] https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/pt.4.0488/full...
No. Outer space is not an American property. Please detonate it in your backyard.
If we had nuked Afghanistan we (probably) would have kicked off WWIII.
If we had done nothing further attacks may have occurred.
Both of those seem at least worse than what actually happened.
It might be true that we can create nukes which have minimal fallout and minimum impact area (I have no idea to be honest), but this ignores the broader consequences such a strategy would bring. Namely that you remove the taboo of using nukes and start to normalize it. It then becomes more justifiable for other countries to also use nuclear weapons, at which point escalation becomes ever more likely. Imagine the consequences if Russia were to use nuclear weapons in its war in Ukraine. Frankly we need as large a stigma as humanly possible on the use of these weapons.
Also mindbogglingly dangerous. Do you really want the only response options to be: 1) nuke the world from orbit or 2) surrender, with no middle ground?
> A nukes only military is so cheap and effective.
If it was effective, we'd see them in reality.
IMHO, we would see post-nuke armies... after all the nuclear wars destroyed the industrial capacity required to build more nukes.
Is there a historical example of any military where a single weapon was successful? How would Vietnam have gone differently if the US was nuke-only? How do you defend your own territory with nukes? Seems easy to defeat.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Invasions_by_the_Unit...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_the_Uni...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_armed_conflicts_involv...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_interventions_by_the_U...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_r...
I honestly didn't think I'd find that many Wikipedia pages listing the different "types" of thing America has been involved with. Wow.
We need to do things like Elon is doing with SpaceX to fundamentally change the economics of scientific efforts like JWST.
I think I disagree on food development research though. That money goes straight to Monsanto and Bill Gates on making copyrighted crops and pseudo-meat. How about we break up food production monopolies and spend our money figuring out how to have farmers compete. Put an end to subsidizing fuel crops. Support food diversity to avoid monoculture vulnerabilities (where a single disease can wipe out giant swaths of food sources). We need less "progress" on agriculture, and more restoration to healthy foods.
Research on food distribution, yes.
Research on fresh water supply, yes.
The old ways for growing food aren't currently being used. We don't rotate crops anymore. We do stupid things like growing almonds in water-poor regions. We need to get back to growing food for people to eat, instead of for giant monopolies to "optimize."
A huge amount of the military budget is research and science.
> some breakthroughs that come from military research
rockets, jets, computers, encryption, RADAR, SONAR, internets, canning/food preservation, weather prediction - that's just things I know from being in tech (and knowing some history). I'm sure if I was a chemist, materials scientist, engineer, or doctor I'd be able to name tons more from those fields.
Does it? I'm no military nor budgeting expert, but quick search seems to say it's closer to ~5% of the total military budget that goes to veterans, see https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/economic/budget/ve... for one example
Those breakthroughs you mention, you think they wouldn't have been made if it wasn't for the military? Some of those things are also borderline not invented by the military at all, but lets disregard that for now.
I fully believe that only 5% of the budget goes to Veterans Affairs, at least in the US. The system is not very good at taking care of vets/
>Those breakthroughs you mention, you think they wouldn't have been made if it wasn't for the military? Some of those things are also borderline not invented by the military at all, but lets disregard that for now.
The list:
>>rockets, jets, computers, encryption, RADAR, SONAR, internets, canning/food preservation, weather prediction
* Rockets are an entirely military invention - the Hargrave rocket invented for the British Royal Navy in the Napoleonic Wars, the chinese pseudo-rockets used as artillery, the V2 rocket used in WW2 Germany, etc. I think one of the only non-military rocket scientists known to history is Goddard.
* Jets - also an entirely military invention. I'm assuming you mean "jet air craft" here - WW2 was the first use of jets to power an airplane. The Soviets and Americans quickly followed suit.
* Encryption - encryption has been in use in militaries since at least the roman era; another name for a substitution cypher is a "Ceaser Cypher." To be fair, this isn't exclusive to military use, as states have an interest in keeping their communications secure, as do banks, but in terms of "money invested in development of cryptography as we know it," the field was effectively invented whole hog during WW2 (again), as (military led and funded) analysis of how codes could be broken lead to the need for new encryption methods that were more secure. See also: the NSA. (note - I'm being sloppy with codes/cyphers/encryption here)
* RADAR/SONAR - literally developed during WW2 by the British using US funds in order to detect submarines and the Luftwaffe terror attacks. The germans had a very sophisticated RADAR tech at the beginning of the war (directed radar for night defense), but failed to develop it any further.
* Internets - the internet, as a system of interconnected computer networks, was funded by ARPA/DARPA, the DEFENSE Advanced Research Projects Agency. ARPA-net was first used by the Pentagon. Pretty much the entire US software and hardware industry was built off of US defense contracting, and this is no exception.
* Canning/Food preservation - the biggest advances in canning/food preservation were the result of studies/competitions funded by the British Royal Navy in the 18/19th centuries. The British defense industry funded the development of canned goods as we understand them today. Interestingly, this is where a lot of our understanding about vitamins started to be learned by (heavy) trial and error, as the RN tried to figure out how to combat scurvy.
* Weather prediction - meteorology as a science got tons of money from (you guessed it) the British Royal Navy, who understandable wanted to better predict conditions for their large navy that was made of wood and canvas. in the 20th century, meteorology got huge infusions of cash from the USAF, because planes care about weather and storms to a huge degree. This was a scientific field outside of the military, but even then, it was a matter of State security to predict the weather so you could understand crop growth patterns etc.
So, to answer your question, no, I don't believe any of those technologies would have developed organically.
From the wikipedia of V-2 Rockets:
> The world's first large-scale experimental rocket program was Opel-RAK under the leadership of Fritz von Opel and Max Valier, a collaborator of Oberth, during the late 1920s leading to the first manned rocket cars and rocket planes,
Looks like rockets were invented before a global war broke out with peaceful intentions, then the military used that invention for violence, as a global war broke out.
Just because an invention is used for war doesn’t mean it required one to be invented.
This presupposes that the V2 is the first use of rocketry in history which...well, it's just not true. You conveniently skipped over the bit about Congreve rockets, which were invented in the late 18th/early 19th century, explicitly for war, or the growing evidence about the use of gunpowder rocketry in Imperial China. Both of these uses were explicitly NOT peaceful. (not hargreve, I misremembered in the OP post).
Also, if you bother to read the article you referenced, it makes it clear that literally nothing came of the experiments apart from that book. It took a war to get the funding and manufacturing resources available to actually _do the work_ of advancing rocketry.
EDIT: to sound less like an asshole and engage with the comment on its face value.
But I wish to step aside now and acknowledge how silly this whole argument is—as most arguments are when it comes to alternate history. Historically the military has been the most well funded of all government enterprises so it should come as no surprise that many innovations happen under such well funded programs. But that does not mean that is the only possible outcome. Humans kept innovating and inventing even as funds were diverted to non-violent endeavors. Today we have universities which are well funded and engage in research, often handing out their gathered knowledge to the rest of humanity (James Webb space telescope can attest to this). Who know what we would have invented already if it wasn’t for the military taking most of the attention of historic societies?
I don't think we'd have GPS (for example) without the military, among other things like nuclear energy/weapons and so on.
Do you seriously think a corporation would have invested the money creating everything needed from the ground up, including ongoing maintenance of a satellite constellation, to let people fix their location on the earth? Where's the profit/ROI in that?
I think you are wrong. Nations that don’t have a military (e.g. Iceland and Costa Rica) still build entire systems of lighthouses, they chart the seas, they map their mountains etc. Countries spend a lot of money into civilian infrastructure. The ROI is in enriching local industry. A GPS system is no bigger ask for civilians then e.g. a railway network. In both cases the ROI is huge for local industry.
As for nuclear energy. A lot of the scientist working on the bomb later became a huge proponents of non-proliferation (J. R. Oppenheimer being a prominent example). I think it is safe to say that the same scientists would have been even happier to work on the technology even if the motive was entirely peaceful.
Half of those inventions come from other nations who dont need to spend 800bn a year (or whatever it is now) + however much the CIA makes from selling crack.
That gave me a good chuckle.
Also, just because the military did them first, does not mean we wouldn't have created them. We might even have more inventions if we had a dedicated R&D team for America.
Maybe that would be expanded and given a civilian role?
But back to the point, I think napkin math for the military budget for one year is (if there was supply) solar and wind for the whole grid. It is close to a trillion dollars, and that is such a crazy number.
The Iraq War #2 was such a tragedy of wasted treasure. That is the budget for mitigation/heading off climate change. It was the right time, the right amount of money.
What would happen if you gave everyone in the country money to get medical care but didn't increase the number of hospitals and doctors we have?
I'm not saying it's wrong, but I think it often lacks nuance/insight. Money spent on NASA does stay in our economy. It provides jobs, funds research, etc. There are pros and cons to doing it this way as opposed to giving it to our people directly.
I like to imagine the possibilities if we stopped
spending money on military and instead spent it on
Money spent on the military is not removed from the economy. It stays in the economy.Some of that money directly goes right back into science via taxes. Other bits of it fund companies that do both research and military development. Other bits of that money fund college educations for tomorrow's science-doers. Etc.
Stopped? Then you get invaded and there is no more space program? We live in a world and when you are a country capable if launching JWST you are also a country that needs defending from other humans/countries. I do agree with making defense less of a jobs program making middlemen criminally rich.
You know, even if we could stop defense spending as a whole I would say solving homelessness, health care and food security is a higher priority. But still, space programs should get their funding just not more than or taking away from helping your own suffering citizens.
I think the federal government competing in the private sector in certain industries makes sense. In this case charging for space based comms and launches and using that money to fund space research makes sense. That aside the money should come from research grants and funding academia is receiving already if they are the ones using it. Of course, instead of reducing defense spending, spending defense in space is better, it was an arms race with russia after all that landed people on the moon.
BTW, the people who work on these details inside astronomy are called "instrumentalists", whether they're scientists or engineers.
Few of them would agree with your statement.
I'm also hopeful that it doesn't get hit with any more micrometeoroids, because that risk is larger than expected and it will bring the party to a close much earlier than expected.
Last I read about this (6 days ago), this was just a galaxy candidate, based on photometric measurements (not a spectrum).[0] It still could be some different type of object. The spectrum will give much more information.
It's exciting of this discovery pans out, and it's exactly the sort of thing JWST is supposed to find, but it's still too early to say that this object has been definitely determined to be a distant galaxy.
The article is pure fluff.
SO I developed spectrum of libations lacking of spirits.
I call it "Faux Tonics"
I think the name reflects the energy of the idea efficiently.
---
Astro-physicists....
They like to shed light on the universe...
fake alcohol?
And it is this very science that has provided so much more wealth and quality of life. Without it we would still be blown in the winds of famines and plagues.
So you could say, no science that does not solve plagues. But then we would not have funded Computer Science and we would not have AlphaFold. You could say no to astronomy, deciding it is specifically worthless, but then you might be saying no to the fundamental physics discovery that doubles global carrying capacity or solves green energy production.
This is also very much ignoring the fact that hunger is political, not technical or financial. We have plenty of food, but no way to distribute it in a politically tenable way.
I suspected the damage was a little more important than people were saying, but it sounds like you might know of some evidence.
[] https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/jNgqXUj6dDVWbSvkw5ngMk-970...
[] https://www.space.com/james-webb-space-telescope-micrometeor...
> Post-impact, however, the error increased to 258 nm rms, but realignments to the mirror segments as a whole reduced the overall impact to just 59 nm rms. For the time being, the team wrote Webb's alignment is well within performance limits, as the realigned mirror segments are "about 5-10 nm rms above the previous best wavefront error rms values."
There is no debating that that big strike was outside the model.
Yes it is. That means the model is wrong. Hopefully JWST doesn't devolve into a micrometeorite detector. That instrument could have been built and operated at far lower cost and one wonders if that shouldn't have been done beforehand.
Speaking of telescope being shot with a gun.. There is a telescope in Texas (Harlan J. Smith Telescope at McDonald observatory) that was shot a few times by someone in the 1970s in the hopes of shattering the main mirror. The overall effect however was only a 1% reduction in the light gathering power and the telescope is still in regular use today. You can find a picture of the primary mirror here [1].
[1] https://astroanecdotes.com/2015/03/26/the-mcdonald-gun-shoot...
0: https://astroanecdotes.com/2015/03/26/the-mcdonald-gun-shoot...
There's a future where we never do anything like it again because reusable rockets mean multiple launch orbital assembly is just plain cheaper.
At a guess: all such theories have been debated and rejected by the people that built then thing in the first place.
The bigger concern would probably be how much sunshade damage the telescope can handle, although fortunately there's a good bit of redundancy on that too.
[0] https://www.space.com/james-webb-space-telescope-micrometeor...
Hopefully it was just a fluke, but if not, this telescope will not survive it's intended lifespan.
As such, NASA has already started a project to optimize the orientation of the craft to minimize strikes.
So the overall number of impacts is consistent with the modeled rate, but the size of the C3 event was outside the modeled rate.
https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2207/2207.05632.pdf
Check out the chapter: 4.7 Micrometeoroids