A nudge has to push the user towards one certain decision over another, that's the whole point. It's opinionated. The factors I listed aren't inherently opinionated, we could've tried to improve them
without pushing the user to a specific choice:
E.g. speed: We could've removed earlier parts of the onboarding to make the overall experience less long, or compacted the UI so it was visually easier to skim the choices.
Expertise: we could've assured the user before the choice, that all options were good cause we're the experts and that we would've give you a bad option - so don't agonise.
Cognitive load: We could've reduced the info we showed about each option, or hidden it away behind a modal, or re-written it in plain english. The legal team told us we had to use the legal descriptions of the choices, which included technical language.
Confusion: We could've made an visualisation of the impact of their choice, that changed as they swapped between each option - showing them them a more tangible outcome of their choice. It was a complicated concept to get, so the addition of a visual aid instead of just written descriptions might've helped.
To be clear - I'd be surprised if these things would've worked, and I'm certain setting a default made a difference. The point I'm making is that I don't know for sure how much of a difference. The change to implement the default, by my eyes, also improved the overall design in these other ways as well. We didn't isolate it down to exactly what made the improvement, we were just happy it happened.
The point I'm making is you could quickly skim read this story of a team stuck on a problem, who after implementing defaults found their conversion rates jumped 11x holy shiiiiiiii- and it sounds like it's all thanks to nudge theory. It's exactly like a case study you'd see in a co-design agency's portfolio.
But in the actual real messy world of designing interfaces, it's just always a bit more complicated than that. No change is truly isolated, tested in a controlled, academic fashion. You just design your best shot each time and see what works. Because of this, it's hard to truly definitively say an improvement was because of a nudge. Best I can do is, "I mean probably" haha.