Grad School Enrollment vs. Unemployment Rate | Hacker News Reader

Grad School Enrollment vs. Unemployment Rate

phdcomics.com

55 pointstimr31 comments

I entered my PhD in 2003 (remember, it was after a kinda big crash). I beat out 160 candidates to get one of seven slots. Since then, like many junior scholars, I've been watching faculty retirement stats for new jobs. Now, I'm finishing my dissertation, and here we are. I hope to either help create a cool start-up or pray for a faculty position in 2010.

Oddly, PhDComics is one thing that's kept us going.

This is the first time I've realized that I don't feel comfortable clicking on faces to navigate a website.

Mystery meat navigation at it's best. Whoever designed this mess thought they were pretty clever (fail).

It's been shown that, on average, people who enter the workforce during a recession earn less throughout their lives than people who graduate when the economy is doing well.

Can you substantiate that comment? Are you referring to salary/bonus growth being slower in leaner years? Is there a significant difference over a 40 year work life?

this is very known, and there has been lots of articles about it. You probably could google this yourself: http://www.portfolio.com/views/blogs/odd-numbers/2008/06/04/...

Read the article.

The first study says the the income gap closes within 10 years.

10 years is not a "lifetime".

That was done in Canada. The second one (done in the US) says:

"Another study of M.B.A. students by Stanford economist Paul Oyer to be published in the Journal of Finance, found that having the bad luck of graduating during a bear market could slash lifetime earnings. Oyer estimated that during a bull market, someone who gets an investment banking job upon graduation earned an additional $1.5 million to $5 million throughout their lives when compared to someone who graduated during a bear market. This was in the 1990's, so it's likely to be even higher now. "

I don't see how this can be generalized to workers in general; investment banking is hardly a typical job.

Meh. Those of us who entered the workforce during the last real recession in the early 90s (not the hiccup some techies wet themselves over in 2001) did just fine, thanks.

Look, if you're planning to graduate over the next while, things are going to suck. Not "will I be able to get a job at cuulCmpny.com" suck, but "will I be able to both pay rent and eat" suck. Nasty, soul-crushing stuff that'll make you wonder if you were really as smart as you thought you were all this time.

Just keep your head and you'll come out of it fine. Your character will be stronger, you'll have superb perspective and your long-term earnings will be spiffy.

Don't waste energy worrying about whether or not you'll have a few more bucks on your paystub in 20 years. There are a whole ton of other factors which can affect that a lot more than the birth-sign of your economic zodiac.

My comment was more concerned with the decision to graduate or stick around in grad school. The data suggests that you may be better off in the long term if you spend the recession earning another degree instead of cowering in a cubicle.

Well, for my own small sample of peers, those I know who took their chances in the workforce came out of the recession better than those who earned another degree (particularly if it was just 'something to do until things got better').

If you're planning to spend your life cowering, it really won't matter whether your choice is a cubicle or a classroom.

Which recession? The last one (2002-2003) is a bad example, since many of the people who worked through it went crazy buying crap (i.e. houses, cars, granite countertops) with the flood of cheap credit that was used to "stimulate" the economy out of trouble.

I spent that period in grad school, and while I don't have houses and cars, I also have no debt. I suspect I will end up better off in the long run -- we're just not there yet.

I suspect the stats may be more biased by people who 'take what they can get' in the recession time, and then don't actually look to find more career progressing opportunities when the markets strengthen. (I've got a couple of friends that did that in the 2001 hiccup and despite my harassing still haven't left the jobs they compromised to take.)

If that is the case it's more important you recognise when times have improved, than to delay your entry by another x years.

Point duly taken, but he said "on average". Like you said, there are many more important factors (like your effort, luck, smarts, etc) that affect long term earning.

But all else equal, it's probably better to enter the workforce in good times rather than bad.

Bottom line here is. Figure out some way to start your own company and work for yourself. Boom or recession it's the only way to go.

Maybe, but if the question is whether to go to grad school or get a job, remember that as far as lifetime earnings go, you'll have to make up those 5-6 years of crappy salary when you get out, too. That's slightly different than just comparing those that graduate during a bull and bear market.

I think pg recommended grad school during recession. It's the perfect time to take on debt. If you choose wisely, when things turn around, you'll have skills that are in demand. Genetics and materials science seem like great candidates for higher education if you can get somebody else to pay for it.

Physics should not be too bad, either.

Meh. I don't have hard data, but I would think that the one and only source of money in physics, the USG, might choose to spend it in more "useful" fields. That means, less opportunities for grad school.

That is, unless you're willing to go abroad. I'd recommend it.

I was more thinking along the lines of Physics Superpowers to make money in completely unrelated fields.

Completely unrelated fields like what?

Traditionally, the answer has been "Finance!" but I don't see that particular job market bouncing back quickly.

How about management consulting?

You're right, that's probably still going to be an option.

I'd forgotten about it, but I used to share an office with a guy who went into management consulting at the end of his PhD.

Last time I saw him, he was trying to figure out whether one insanely large number in Hong Kong dollars was worth more or less than some other insanely large number in pounds sterling, because those were the salaries he'd been offered.

not that surprising really, when you can't find a job, going to grad school pretty much gives you a 2 year extension to wait for the market to bounce back.

It certainly confirms one's intuition, but the degree of correlation is pretty surprising to me, assuming this is real data.

He cites the sources in the comic, and he's an engineer by training, so I'm inclined to believe that he knows how to do the calculation. :-)

Looks like legitimate data.

Even if real, doesn't necessarily mean they aren't confounded by another factor.

Yeah, but that doesn't help us who've done this strategy a few times already... :-P

No matter what, times are going to get very interesting... I just graduated (a little later in life but hey, I did it). I also have a startup and have been debating on moving across the country to the Bay area in order to give it a real shot or keep bootstrapping as long as possible and go back to school and wait it out. Decisions...

I'm now desperately trying to decide between a master's and a PhD. I'm unsure as to whether I should take the economy into account.

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