You're only following the winners, but computer science has also had a lot of flops, too. Time will tell if quantum computers is one of those, but it sure isn't looking great so far.
At my work, I was present when the research on ASAS (https://skybrary.aero/articles/airborne-separation-assurance...) led to the idea of PMS (https://www.eurocontrol.int/sites/default/files/2021-05/euro...).
Never underestimate serendipity
Oh, come on. Linux was a clone of MINIX with a GPL license. If Linus had not written it, somebody else would have; and at worst (if that is worse), we would have all been running FreeBSD now.