This is a lagging indicator.
A more leading indicator is "Countries who have reached peak births".
The world itself has reached, or is approaching, "peak baby" - though this will be a long plateau.
A more leading indicator is "Countries who have reached peak births".
The world itself has reached, or is approaching, "peak baby" - though this will be a long plateau.
Seems like the primary cause in most cases is /not/ the fact that deaths are outpacing births but, instead, that emigration is outpacing immigration.
Most of these countries are low-income nations in the EU whose workforce is now leaving to flock to higher-income countries.
We're basically seeing a brain drain in EU countries that need that workforce most to drive future growth. One of the unintended consequences of EU membership.
This is true, but it is localized and a one-time shock.
Portugal, Italy, Greece have had sub replacement fertility for 40 years already.
China, Japan, South Korea - urbanized, industrialized, economically growing countries.
The generally accepted causes are urbanization, reduced religion, education of women, which to re-enforce each other.
"When will the world reach ‘peak child’?" [0]
Also top 10 countries with lowest birth rate [1]:
- Monaco - 6.63.
- South Korea - 6.89.
- Andorra - 6.91.
- Japan - 7.00.
- Taiwan (limited recognition) - 7.43.
- Greece - 7.72.
- Puerto Rico - 7.90.
- Portugal - 8.02.
[0] https://ourworldindata.org/peak-child
[1] https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/birth-rat...
- South Korea - 51.78 million - 6.89.
- Japan - 125.8 million - 7.00.
- Taiwan - 23.57 million - 7.43.
- Greece - 10.72 million - 7.72.
- Portugal - 10.31 million - 8.02.
- Italy - 59,037,474 - 8.5
- Germany - 83,369,843 - 8.6
- Romania - 19,659,267 - 8.7
- Spain - 47,558,630 - 9
- Czech Republic - 10,493,986 - 9.2
It's 100% true that the child and working-age population shrinks long before the absolute population starts to dip, and in many ways that's more meaningful.
Also, title should be changed. This is "Population decline projections for 2050".
Otherwise countries like Canada would appear to be shrinking, when in fact they're growing overall.
How did you arrive at the strange idea that we are approaching "peak baby"? Barring some cataclysm, the only plausible mechanism to reach "peak baby" is hitting permanent Malthusian limits.