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The term "Inflation" is used in two forms interchangeably by most people, and this leads to miscommunication. Inflation is used for:

(a) price inflation: increasing prices for individual goods.

(b) monetary inflation: an increase in the amount of money used.

Both types of inflation means you get less goods for the same amount of (in this instance) Dollars. Monetary inflation (b) is mostly created by central banks and commercial banks, who increase the amount of dollars via Quantitative Easing, or fractional reserve banking. Price inflation (a) is the effect of markets reacting to changes in supplies and macro trends.

Price inflation isn't even over all products, and products generally fall into three categories: deflationary goods, stable goods, and inflationary goods. Deflationary goods have traditionally been electronics like televisions. Innovation in these areas drives down prices for products hard. Stable goods are products like lumber, food, or oil. Inflationary goods are often luxury brand items like Gucci bags, or yachts.

What is noticeable now is a marked increase in price inflation for stable goods. The source of this inflation is usually one of the following:

1. Supply-side issues (Chinese harbours closed because of Corona outbreaks, the issue with meat as discussed in the article)

2. ESG goals driving up energy prices (which affect production costs and prices for fertiliser. A good example of this is Sri Lanka)

3. International sanctions against Russia (further increasing the cost for fertiliser and increasing the price of energy for the western European market).

Inflation is when the ratio of <money available>/<goods available> grows.

This can happen by the numerator growing (your (a)) or the denominator shrinking (your (b)).

Hate to be pedantic, but goods and services.

Seems like correlation more than causation. There could be plenty of money available but fearful people do not want to spend it.

A moment's consideration would show that's too simplistic. Money available has been growing for years without any notable inflation. It's not like we all rush out to spend every bit of income we have, a fair amount gets saved which effectively neutralises it.

<Money available> is a simplification, yes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply

A lot of the extra money was being plowed into real estate or the stock market, preventing inflation from happening elsewhere outside of the real estate or stock markets. Interest in saving accounts was too low for the money to just be saved.

So has the goods available. I suspect China's ability to manufacture cheaply and in huge quantities has masked a lot of the increase in the numerator.

Let me add to your list:

4. Russia artificially limiting the Gas supply to freak out the Europeans.

5. Russia preventing wheat and corn feed from being exported out of Ukraine, forcing it to rot.

I'd also like to add to the list:

6. Many industries have become oligopolies, so companies can increase the prices consumers pay even faster than their own costs increase, leading to record profits.

For example, Tyson Foods' profits nearly doubled:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/07/tyson-foods-higher-meat-pric...

My understanding is that economists use the term inflation for the rise in prices - strictly the fall in value or purchasing power of a currency.

The increase in money is termed 'expansion of the money supply'. There are a number of measures of money supply, going from narrow, cash only, to broad to include cash like instruments.

There is a strong relationship between money supply and inflation, different schools of economic thought understand it differently, but in general when you increase the money supply, its purchasing power falls.

Ballooning asset valuations have largely/entirely been caused by QE and ultra low interest rates, other prices are going to be affected by this too. Supply side shocks of course play their part, but current inflation is probably primarily driven by this loose monetary policy.

> My point isn't that inflation doesn't exist

Heads of lettuce are really poor markers for inflation. What percentage of your take home do you spend on lettuce anyway?

You're much better off looking at median rent and median home price. Which can be quantified and clearly shows a big uptick. And you're likely spend anywhere from 25-50% of your pay on them.

Anything is potentially cherry-picked, but there's no question that superinflation is real now (inflation is really much higher than the officially reported), and we stand on the precipice of hyperinflation. Later this year, the dry, hot summer (that's just weather, folks, not global warming, but the timing sucks), in conjunction with skyrocketing costs of fertilizer, diesel fuel, and hay/feed will drive real food prices higher than they've been in the lifetime of all but our oldest citizens. Food will become a very significant part of family spending.

It's no better on the industrial side - I've got a client in light manufacturing (oilfield sensors) - they can't get critical components, they can't get wire, they can't get adhesives and chemicals. They can't even get some of the blocks of metal that they start machining with!

They have orders that have been sidelined waiting for parts for a year now. Most vendors have stopped quoting delivery and now just say "52+ weeks", since they have no idea when they'll have product to sell again. Their customers are furious, but they can't deliver what they don't have.

This cannot end well. Our economies, worldwide, have been deliberately destroyed in a very intentional set of moves that are not nearly over yet. This is going to get a lot worse before it gets better, unless there's a massive uprising. Canadian truckers and the farmers of the Netherlands are just the beginning of the unrest that's going to happen.

Prepare for something much worse than the Great Depression, because our governments sure appear to be colluding to make sure it happens. The only thing good about this is that social media and tech companies will be the hardest hit. People need food, they need manufactured products, but no one NEEDS Facebook... (We're already seeing people drop expensive unessential subscriptions (Netflix, etc.), and even seeing enough late payments to AT&T that they have to call it our in defending their falling earnings.) The Great Reset is here, and it's likely to turn bloody before it's all over...

beef has had 4 straight months of decreases

Even that’s uneven in my experience. Cheap ‘bulk’ meat isn’t up much, but ‘fancy’ meat (local, organic, grass fed etc.) is up over 30% where I am. Although I suspect that is at least partially due to “price gouging” the more price insensitive customers that buy that sort of product

My area has the inverse. Cryovac ground beef is way up but both the fancier stuff at the grocery store as well as the local stuff at the farmers market is roughly the same.

Hmm, I’m not in the US (Japan), but all prices have been rising. On top of that the yen went from 110 per $ to 140 per $, so that by itself inflates half of my recurring costs by 30%

I started my matcha addiction at the wrong time it seems. Just bulk ordered a bunch of tea from Japan, and while the dollar is relatively strong, it wasn't cheap. Still cheaper than Starbucks every day though, which is how I'm justifying it.

"My point isn't that inflation doesn't exist."

My wife tells me different, so I'm going with her real world experience in the matter.

If you or your wife look at the past and current price of lettuce in the local store and then use that to make the conclusion that the purchasing power of the US Dollar has decreased 47%, then I don't know what to tell you.

Your cost of living may have increased, but I do not understand how you can conclude an increase in inflation from living your daily life.

I know that my total grocery bill (not just lettuce) has more than doubled in the past few years. Gas too.

"The purchasing power of the US Dollar has decreased 47%" sounds about right.

A company selling a product I frequently buy went out of business, the purchasing power of the USD has decreased by 100%.

In terms of that product, it has.

And if that product was as essential to life for as many people as food and gas are, that might be important.

No it doesn't

You can always calculate your personal rate of inflation

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/Prices/Consumer-Pr...

You could almost elect Walter Mondale with this amount of cherry-picked data