Acknowledging this fact has placed a heavy importance on my part to support community projects locally.
Good luck with the post-apocalyptic hellscape. I'm an atheist, so I won't be watching from above or anything. Though we might interact again in a few billion years when the sun consumes the Earth, converts its mass into energy and shoots our constituent particles out into the universe as beams of photons. Maybe we'll all become part of a Boltzmann brain, gain sentience again and hang out.
(Actually, to quote the amazing Douglas Adams, "There is another theory which states that this has already happened.")
The most extreme direct risks to me from climate affecting weather seem to be related to wildfires, but the local response (fire, police, mental illness-related efforts, various non-profits) has really raised its game after recent fires, and now with PG&E making some changes things don't seem as bad.
I admit I'm not a huge fan of predictive or causal models unless taken in the aggregate, usually. Especially the singular-cause or singular-outcome kind. This is coming from personal interest in this topic within psychology study...for one I find that such models can become pretty breathless & kind of suck all the energy out of the room, energy that can be redirected into an executive stance. Where otherwise you end up with perfectly good mental resources stuck in a perceptive stance. It's cool to predict, but also even cooler to predict with an open mind to many possible outcomes, and then also even cooler to do that and then say "now here's the plan" iow.
A more down-to-earth answer is that I do not need a 'climate change survival strategy' just like I do not need an 'ice age survival strategy' or an 'asteroid strike survival strategy'. Yes, the climate changes just like it always has. It was warmer in the 1930's - the Dust Bowl years - than it is now, it was colder during the little ice age, it was drier. it was wetter, it was whatever you care to name and will be in the future. Add to that that I live on a 17th century farm which is heated by wood only - which I also use for cooking - and has access to a well which has never run dry in known history, with a 15 kW solar array on one of the barns and enough acreage to satisfy our needs we're well prepared for whatever comes our way.
Acting alone will do nothing. I can move to one of the poles and try to survive there but ultimately the world wide societal chaos that will be part of the changing environment will catch up to me. We are going to see fights for land ,water and general resources. I don't think people understand that it's not just a change in the weather but it's also a change on the way our world wide society functions.
First, we need to address the economy and inflation. Then, work on technological solutions to CC. When economy is good, everything is great. Sustainable practices sound awesome. But, when populace is struggling, CC agenda will get thrown out of the window real fast whether laptop class people think one way or the other. Most people on HN haven't faced hardships. This is how you crush middle class in the name of CC and then wonder, why we have a war on our hands.
Everything is linked to the economy. The pandemic destroyed lives of many and immediately 2 months later, you started seeing protests breakout everywhere. That's not a coincidence.
What worries me are the assholes that are on their laptops all day drinking $15 wheat grass smoothies virtue signaling how they're helping climate change by using paper straws. It makes zero difference, yet they're the loudest people influencing policy decisions.
Here is another blow to environmentalists that led EU into the corner, just today: https://www.ft.com/content/cf84dde3-9020-4ee7-a6d0-2809863da...
Climate policies are going to dismantle societies into chaos.
Also to add insult to injury the economy is fine, profits are still high and follow years of records profits for shareholders, employment is low. The money is just not correctly redistributed.
What comes next? Climate alarmicism is getting out of control. The deaths from climate catastrophies are like 15x lower than 100 years ago. Collapse of the society due to instability from climate policies (see Sri Lanka) will lead to more deaths and suffering than from sea level rising. Norway managed sea levels rising for last 50 years just fine (from other reasons): https://www.kartverket.no/en/at-sea/se-havniva/sea-level/obs...
We know the broad strokes of how climate change will impact us, but exactly how it's going to break down is impossible to predict.
We know it's going to make certain areas of the planet unlivable. We can't be sure exactly which areas.
Sea levels are already rising - but it's impossible to predict the exact rate at which they will continue to rise. There are models in which they rise relatively slowly. There are models in which they rise quickly, and there are models in which ice sheets fall off the arctic and antarctic all at once and it rises catastrophically.
The equators are already becoming unlivable (and ahead of schedule) - most models predicted we wouldn't start to see days of deadly heat until 2080, but that happened in 2020. It was literally too hot to exist outside for more than an hour or two with out supplemental cooling. We know eventually that will become the norm for much of the equatorial region.
We know climate change will destabilize rain patterns, which will destabilize crops. We know this will drive up food prices. And eventually, send us back to a place where there literally just isn't enough food to go around (right now we produce somewhere around 1.5 times the amount of food we need - there's only starvation because we aren't willing to distribute that food equitably). We don't know when or how fast.
We know all of this will drive migration. We don't know when, we don't really know from where or to where, and we don't know what the full consequences of that migration will be. The millions of people who migrated out of the Middle East as a result of the destabilization of that region post Iraq/Afghanistan and the Arab Spring contributed to cause all kinds of political destabilization in Europe - and a swing towards authoritarianism. It's impossible to predict what tens of millions or hundreds of millions of people migrating from the poorer, harder hit regions into the richer regions will do. Or what the general destabilization of the economy will do. But it's a pretty safe bet that it will fuel authoritarianism (...is fueling authoritarianism) of all kinds.
Given the uncertainty of it all, it's impossible to adequately strategize for survival - let alone a reasonably secure and comfortable life.
Our best bet would be to fight like hell right now to prevent it from getting any worse than it's already going to.
You'll likely be even harder hit by climate change in prison
Invest heavily in alternative energy as governments will more and more use their regulatory power to enforce non carbon energy.
Invest heavily in environmental clean up companies as the environmental fallout for alternative energies is going to be extraordinary.[0][1]
Do my part to reduce my footprint along the way.
[0] https://www.science.org/content/article/millions-electric-ca...
[1] https://www.hazardouswasteexperts.com/solar-panels-wear-out-....
This is going on throughout the length and breadth of Western Australia and using a lot of automated instrumentation for logging soil conditions, multi spectral growth imagry, etc.
Most of the day to day and big library build stuff is a semi closed personal network of farmers, consultants (IT, agronomy, etc) .. but here in Western Australia it culminates in a year by year guide for farmers:
https://www.agric.wa.gov.au/grains-research-development/2022...
with most public faces and material found under the "Grains research & development" umbrella (levelling up from the sowing guide link).
Seems to be what all the other "concerned" people I keep hearing talk about this are doing.
> It feels almost anachronistic to say it — in these days of globalization, international entertainment, worldwide travel, remote work, constant connection and instant access to everything — but the most important choice facing you and your family as the planetary crisis crashes down is where you choose to be. Where you live, and even more, where you have the right to live, will bound and determine your options when shit gets real.
> How do we get smarter about making that choice?
Will people migrate over time? Yes. Does migrating now vs. later make a difference? Much less certain - because those people migrating later? They're probably going to the same places the "migrate now" people have moved to. And at that point, it's going to be wholly unpleasant for both groups.
I mean, yes. Don't buy farm real estate in Arizona, or waterfront property in Miami.
As for hedging - I'm fairly certain that, for people living affluent outside the tropics or high latitudes means that the effects that'll really get them are largely systemic. There's not much hedging to be done. (Sure, some areas will have slightly milder climate extremes, but food's still gonna be scarce. Pandemic and war will still be felt. Civil war is an option almost everywhere. Migration will still heavily impact local economies.)
That's why I asked the counter-question - to highlight that this is really, if we want to or not, either a collective undertaking or certain misery. Isolation, or even anything but very basic hedging, is not really feasible for most people on this site.
No.
They're farther ahead than the worst polluter per capita, the US, which still doesn't have a plan and us highly unlikely to have one soon.
increasing my oil independent food production
acquiring skills to make and or fix things i need.
You can technically drop a bunch of seeds on the ground if you don't care about survival rate, but I wouldn't call that planting.
You're correct that the survival rates are much lower than hand planting with a shovel, this is offset by dropping seed embedded nutrient "balls" that do better than seeds alone and by saturating with expectation of low survival.
Cost-wise it's looking to be cheaper than the alternative of slow dangerous scrabbling rope work to lant by hand.
The trials will tell.
I'm not endorsing this viewpoint btw, just trying to very very briefly explain it to you.
I understand (better than most!) that my position is contrary to the prevailing wisdom but then I'm the right age to be a curmudgeon about all this:
- the sun is what gives our planet warmth
- its long term cycle can be very accurately measured by sunspot activity
- we're currently entering a grand solar minimum
- this will trigger the mini ice age
- previous example: the Maunder Minimum which triggered the last mini ice age
The Maunder Minimum would be a good thing to search for.
I found locally a bonus for summer: a significant thermal delta with no more (so far) than 15-16℃ (27-29℉) at night/early morning and a bit too much (25-30℃/45-54℉) in the hottest summer late afternoon, witch happen to be very good for running aircon on P.V.
The area is not that "far from civility", recently fibered with 2Gbps/800Mbps connections, few local services, few relatively near other services etc. Drought is already and seems to be more and more an issue, not much for humans here but surely for agriculture. Fire risk is significant BUT not exactly where I built my new home (simply because trees are there en mass but distant enough), being new (5 years) is well insulated, with almost any contemporary tech for heating/cooling and hot water. Not enough personal drinking water saved at home but... Essentially while not exactly chosen for climate change I choose to build new because I smell a bad future with not-that-stable-anymore services (electricity, water etc) and social unrest while still being in a normal life mode, not hermiting in some isolated place like certain preppers dream.
I do not design anything "for doomsday scenarios", no "anti-atomic bunkers", hurricane-proof concrete walls over a seismically isolated base, gun-loaded turrets etc. Just a modern home in a hopefully good enough place near enough many urbanized land but still a bit far to be relatively in peace and nature. If all goes well I'm still in a wonderful place, if all goes wrong I'm still in a good enough middle-ground.
In my views cities are modern jails under development since most, at least in EU, being formed of tall and dense buildings can't simply evolve, much people live there and so eat, but no food is or can be produced there, much dependencies on city-wide infra can't be backed up or avoided, very few can surveil and stop many more people (while it's the opposite in the countryside).
UNFORTUNATELY energy relative autarchy is essentially not feasible (yes I can waste much money in battery storage, but it's a nonsense given the expected battery lifespan, so I choose a small battery backup enough to pass 24h on battery for just essential loads, no heating/cooling) nor food relative autarchy since I can't produce enough food for myself even if I decide to became a farmer.
However consider a thing: when around you homes goes dark and you have electricity, when people starve and you have food you are still not ok, if things goes really bad we are a civility, we can't survive alone. The Clausewitzian "best you can" is just a way to soften a hard landing if that happen without ruining your life waiting for it.