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Comment by treis | Hacker News Reader

>Fixed route service is FAR more efficient than any sort of micro transit service can ever be

Theoretically fixed route service is far more efficient. Practically, it's not because it takes a lot of demand to run at high frequency and high utilization. As an example, I live in Atlanta and it costs the system $9 per bus ride these days. And given the nature of the system and the city it usually takes people more than one bus ride to get where they need to go.

Lyft/Uber usually comes out to be slightly to much cheaper excepting long cross-metro rides. The problem is that I don't get my $15.50 subsidy.

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You aren’t making an apples to apples comparison though, your assertion is that it costs the system $18 for you to take a trip, but you’re only looking at the fare charges by Uber/Lyft. Uber and Lyft continue to operate at a loss, and are therefore subsidizing their rides as well. Additionally, they are able to maintain a contingent workforce that a public transit agency would likely never be able to get away with. Uber and Lyft are directly subsidized by investor money, in addition to the lower wages earned by drivers who also cover the capital expenditure for vehicles and cover the maintenance costs.

And final point, mass transit demand still hasn’t returned to pre pandemic levels. Obviously, it may be the case that we have seen a long term shift in demand, but the fact remains that the current system was built out/provisioned for a higher level of demand, so it’s not surprising that the cost structure is higher right now than it should be. Pre pandemic it looks like bus/rail cost Marta around $4.50 per trip.

>You aren’t making an apples to apples comparison though, your assertion is that it costs the system $18 for you to take a trip, but you’re only looking at the fare charges by Uber/Lyft.

The $18 is operating cost and doesn't include capital costs. Lyft is EBIDTA profitable and Uber likely is on rides too. Their fares are enough to cover the operating cost of the system. Comparison is as apples to apples as it can be.

>Pre pandemic it looks like bus/rail cost Marta around $4.50 per trip.

Even still. To use a practical example, my kid's day care is 4 miles away. I would need 2 buses to get there by MARTA so $9 if we assume pre-pandemic costs. Lyft will take me there for between $8.93 and $14.17 with various options on shared + wait time. For a solo car for a pick up in 4 minutes it's $11.01.

Lyft will take me 9 minutes to get there while MARTA will take 46 minutes if I time everything perfectly. More realistically it's an hour which is barely faster than walking the 4 miles.

Lyft’s adjusted EBITA was $55 million in Q1, given their active rider number stands at ~19 million, at best they are likely offering rides at cost.

That still leaves out the costs incurred by the drivers. Opex for transit agencies includes maintenance, insurance and driver salaries and benefits which are much more costly than it is for Lyft.

You are right that sprawling metro areas are very well suited for mass transit, though. There does need to be a sufficient amount of demand in order for it to work.

The fact of the matter is that the main problem is a land use pattern that requires over $9 to travel to and from a child’s daycare.

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