Chess is still no-hard, so "proving this" will be near impossible.
The closest we have is statistics. I remember watching a "bot battle." A chess tournament for bots only, algorithms playing eachother. Nearly 70% of these games ended in draw.
In other news, no point in needing pi, because perfect circles dont actually exist in the real world.
If you hang with the right crowds (for example people into software correctness), PSPACE completeness is easy and you even solve undecidable problems every day.
It can simultaneously be true both that NP-hardness matters, and that constant-sized problems can be hard.
Even 52! comes pretty close to it, and that’s just one deck of cards.
Saying there are merely “more” states is almost insulting to the depth of a chess game :)
70% draws is a very small number, really. Not conclusive at all.