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Small differences in the initial conditions can bring big differences in the final result. This is the main postulate of chaos theory started with one Edward Lorenz and giving birth to stuff like the butterfly effect.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory

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This is part of the answer. The other part being that there seems to be fundamental non determinism in our universe.

I agree - it is obvious to me that free will = non-determinism. But we are getting into metaphysics and unprovable thought experiments

Most likely but it depends on your interpretation of quantum mechanics. I believe in non determinism but that’s mainly a hunch

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