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That discount would be built into either Elon's buy price or Twitter's nominal price if deal falls through.

I could believe that there is a 100% chance Elon is forced to buy twitter at $54, but if the deal takes 10 years to close, I'm not buying in at $38.

It's filed in delaware courts which are famously fast. Expectation is 3-5 mo

But then Elon might ignore the ruling, and it's not clear what happens, or long it takes.

Aren’t US judges given a large leeway in forcing rulings? (This might be overly influenced by Law and Order TV.)

That's how long it takes to get a ruling, but how long will it take them to enforce it?

Fast!