Entire telecomm infrastructure of Iceland sold to private equity?
ardian.com
ardian.com
https://www.visir.is/g/20222288293d/hluta-brefa-verd-simans-...
Míla is the company being sold, it was spun out of the national monopoly a long time ago to provide base layer services to all operators equally but was initially (and still mostly, I'm hazy on the details) owned by the old monopoly. The old monopoly has also been privatized a long time ago but has significant competition.
I agree selling the infrastructure part to PE is almost 100% guaranteed to give bad results for the nation. It's like people never stopped to look at what the typical PE playbook is. But I guess it's harder to stop when everything is privatized already and in the hands of very many shareholders, each of them acting in their own short-term best interest.
Source: I'm Icelandic.
[0] (in Icelandic) https://www.mbl.is/vidskipti/frettir/2022/07/17/ardian_saett...
I can't think of a time that this has been good for the population, even if you include "lower taxes" (because, honestly, that doesn't seem to happen).
And in 10-20 years with no investment they will wonder why the telecom system is breaking.
You can find situations where the government has implemented something fairly poorly, but that isn't often evidence to say "the private sector could have done this so much better!"
But on the other hand, you might find situations where there has been an enormous amount of advance/innovation driven by the private sector, but that isn't evidence to say "the same thing would have occurred with government ownership!"
The sale stipulated that the government would regulate the wholesale price of copper and that the copper lines, and later the exchanges, could be accessed by competing telcos.
Years later the government, no longer owner of any copper lines, set up a fibre network. The fibre network is owned 50% by central government and 50% by private or local government owned corporations and its pricing is highly regulated.
87% of the population can now get a 4000/4000mbs connection for 117 USD/month.
Does the government actually have an ownership stake? I just thought they provided some grants and debt financing?
1) Selling Telstra. The whole issue never would have happened if the govt still owned. Thanks Mr Howard
2) Forcing local Labor requirement in the tender. This was Labor union movement trying to spread money with the roll-out but made Testra drop out as until this they were always guaranteed to win. Thanks Mr Rudd
3) The 'we dont need fibre well use mixed technology'. That's were it truly became a waste of money and potential. Thanks Abbott & Turnbull.
Such a failure for Australia. And as someone now using Starlink, so glad Musk came along and saved us bad internet people.
And then we'll do it all over again in the 2030s.
I was tangentially involved with the privatization of a copper mine in South America. Within just a few years of it being sold off to private buyers, it was consistently profitable for the first time, extraction was up ~350%, and costs were down 40%. This was the Cerro Verde mine in Peru.
Is there any indication this will be different from all the many, many, many failed privatizations?
What were they thinking (really, what was the discourse over there? Doesn't Iceland usually tend to do reasonable things?)?
Also, in similar vein, is there any examples of making something that was private before into public infrastructure, with good success?
There were some crazy routes to get from A to B. Toll roads cut an hour or more off some popular routes.
And in reverse, some states have bought out some toll roads, after they were deemed not profitable.
In the short term businesses can optimize and at times modernize. When this is done the customers/citizen will pay until the end of time.
The people who were jailed didn't really receive much time at all and the whole thing has been misunderstood abroad.
Honestly the country is no longer independent, the biggest joke is that our ruling political party, the independence party, is anything but...
But these things are just the slow march to making it clear who rules us. Can't wait to see the identity company (also private) being sold in a similar way.
I am doing an uprising (except the icelandic word 'uppreisn' also has the added meaning of 'dignity') - what does that entail? Well I believe that coercion is not a good foundation for anything supposedly legitimate. I want a more persuasive foundation and I guess that starts with making guix a useful OS for non-technical users via my "datalisp" project... I guess I should stop dragging my feet and make the website (datalisp.is) since I am opening this discussion.
Whatever. The key idea is; we need to be able to trust our operating system, for that to happen we need a way to receive automatic updates without having a central source of truth, this is the oracle problem in disguise. The solution is to keep track of probabilistic estimates of [contextual] trust and basically do science (we haven't got a better way to do physics so I don't see how we are expecting anything better from "AI") to assess legitimacy...
You can see my thing at sr.ht/~ilmu and if you are Icelandic; uppreisn.is (note that this thing is lost in google translation).
I've decided I would rather die than earn money doing things I don't believe in and that almost happened recently so everything is a bit scattered. However I have a meetup starting next month and then there will be steady progress on datalisp.
Edit for some clarifications, the sale discussed is blocked right now by the 'competition control' agency but I don't think they have enough grounds and the agencies that do are clearly corrupt.
A sell off is rarely going to result in more than what the population has already paid towards the business. It turns into a short-sighted budget booster while depriving the population of the unique advantages of state-held entities, such as not needing to turn a profit, having to answer to elected representatives, the power to change the management, or hold priorities that solely benefit the population (such as performing costly upgrades for economic or national security purpose).
When looking at utilities there are few avenues that the new owner can take to improve profit other than cost-cutting exercises and increasing fees. Neither of these weren't possible beforehand, but an entity that needs to make profit to justify the purchase price will find ways of generating that profit.
This is usually where the problems start - it's the assumption that a private profit driven entity possesses unique market knowledge, efficiencies and access to larger scales of economies that weren't available to prior company management. In most situations these benefits are overstated and don't render any real benefit to the population, instead the business usually increases costs at an outpaced rate (hello inflation) due to having a state granted monopoly and this levies the entire population with a higher cost of doing business for the long term.
There has been a huge amount of privatisation of infrastructure in New Zealand over the years, and it is hard to find good examples of consumer harm (unlike the harmful examples for private electricity networks in California or Texas).
The only real problem appears to be that the public keep buying things back or propping up private enterprise (giving billions to Toll for an uneconomic rail network, or bailing out our national air carrier Air NZ).
One counter-example could be our airports which are part private enterprise, and man they gouge consumers with their monopolies. Although I think Wellington and Christchurch airports are private-public partnerships with local government.
New Zealand is similar to Oregon in area and population, to give you an idea of how big our problems could get.
We went from being a country where you'd wait years to get a landline installed to one of ubiquitous internet and cellphone coverage in a very short time-frame. Prices have gone down consistently and the companies are continuously investing in improving the infrastructure.
The important thing about Brazilian privatization was that there was forced competition. Every major metro region had two have at least two different buyers and they had to compete. This led to ~8 big groups bidding for different regions in the whole country.
Nowadays the restrictions on the regions were lifted and some consolidation came up, but overall the whole country still has every region with at least 3-4 different companies competing for the market.
Of course. It's impossible to make the case that US telephone customers were better off under Ma Bell than we were after deregulation, for instance. If only we could've kept Bell Labs alive!
Also, consider the medium you're using at this very moment.
[0] https://www.theverge.com/2016/10/24/13389592/att-time-warner...
When I hear "private equity", I think "strip it to the bone to profit off an existing captive customer base without making additional investment", I don't think "experimenting and collaborating".
I guess Iceland will find out!
Privatizing it is always a bad move for the citizens, and a good move for the private company.
At worst, countries should keep one publicly owned company that owns the infrastructure and rents it to others, and also keeps the playing field leveled with low prices for the customers (this is the case in some countries but not all..).
There is also the reasonable argument that government run entities are wasteful.
So, it's not a simple thing.
This way it cant be a balance the budget act, and the cash might benifit your opponent 3 election cycles down the track.
It probably wont stop overselling of assets but would definitely take away a short term incentive.
- Under-fund the public service because it "costs too much" (ignore the value it generates for the public).
- Service performs poorly when underfunded, so you can manufacture consent to sell it, argue that private ownership will be more efficient.
- Sell it, creating short-term income you can use to spend on stuff people (and your mates) like (often tax cuts), making your government seem effective. You can also sell it to your mates who then get easy profit milking a natural monopoly for profit, probably kicking some back to you in the form of a cushy "advisor" gig when you retire.
- Inevitably end up making the unprofitable parts of it public again when the private providers simply stop doing it, or go under trying to. You then have these expensive bits of public service with no income-generating bits to offset them you can point to and say public services are inefficient. Private profits, public losses.
- Hey look, public services cost too much! We should under-fund some other ones...
This level of service was established by government giving interest free loans to private companies to build the fiber infrastructure (with one company getting about 70% of it). So you might want to revise your use of the word “always”.
Using only that article as a resource (lazy, sorry), it seems that the telco infrastructure improved because of competition. It doesn't really seem to be a private/public issue, but that multiple companies got into the action.
All of Iceland's infrastructure was sold off in one huge chunk, forming a private monopoly. This may become a decent test case for whether government-operation or private-operation makes a difference. (In contrast to the wiki article, which suggests that competition is the thing that matters.) Like the grandparent comment, I expect very little from the private operation of Iceland's telco infrastructure, but I'd love to be surprised.
It used to be quite expensive. This only changed thanks to the ruling[1] that the conduct of charging monopoly price was anti competitive.
[1] https://comcom.govt.nz/case-register/case-register-entries/t...
I think all of Iceland's internet getting bought by one company is not a reasonable comparison.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_New_Zealand#Pricin...
In short; since privatization in the 90s, the spending in R&D went to 1% (median in other countries is 7%). Rising costs, and lagging on implementing DSL in 00s. OECD list it among the most expensive countries to own a landline, and cellphone. Then, lagging in DSL+, and then, lagging in Fibre. Bottom of the OECD list.
This is for a country that in the 50s, 60s, and 70s had an amazing copper infrastructure, and a computer and technology univerisity sector even.
How are you defining infrastructure? Why is there an assumption it's good for the company buying it? There is virtually always a bidding competition, these assets don't go for cheap.
So it’s generally just a question of how screwed the public gets.
In practice there are dozens of players bidding on infrastructure assets globally. The assets tend to be easy to model, easy to finance and hence finance types (like all the PEs, pension funds etc) love them.
Here is a starting point:
https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/pe-most-active-investors...
https://www.peievents.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/30_1...
https://docs.preqin.com/newsletters/ra/Preqin-RASL-August-16...
No one bidding on these assets is giggling about how much money they are going to make. They are thinking "we are bidding a lot here, these returns don't look so hot, how can we justify this??" and then praying their projections aren't off on the downside. At least, in the first world. There does appear to have been some shady dealings in Russia, Mexico etc in the 90's.
Beyond that you can find plenty of exceptions in first world countries of underbidding paying off, though mostly at the local scale. For a specific example look at US high speed internet a little closer and you can find taxpayers getting screwed.
What is a specific local example of that? Ie in what city/town/metro/etc?
For an ultra low risk investment in a period of cheap money it was extremely hard to beat.
The Chicago Skyway wasn't a big money maker for the winners. I doubt the people of Chicago are upset the owner made a low single digit return.
FWIW, most of these things look different once you start bidding or even considering bidding on them. The competition is fierce. It's hard to make money buying obviously good, simple to understand assets.
> The competition is fierce
“Burke, chairman of the city council's finance committee, described the 99-year lease of the Chicago Skyway, a 7.8-mile toll road, to a private operator for the stunning sum of $1.8 billion - almost $1 billion more than the next-highest bid.”
That’s hardly stiff competition that’s twice the second highest bid and it was still profitable in the short term even with a recession.
https://money.cnn.com/2007/09/17/news/international/macquari...
But yep funnily enough the second highest bid would have generated a half decent return. The winners overbid because it was competitive, and they didn't feel smart when they found out how much higher they'd bid.
It's worth asking anyone who spent time bidding on these things. No one will tell you it's easy money or that there is underbidding going on.
Telecoms are extremely profitable, the "lower taxes" reasoning is complete BS - this smells bad.
Works out well for Rogers and Telus shareholders ;).
edit: see upthread, I am wrong about Telus.
When you ban this sort of bullshit permitting process it goes extremely well. Sometimes local authority has to be sacrificed for the long term benefit that residents don't see.
- Charter: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/03/ny-says-charter-...
- Frontier: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/05/frontier-knowing...
- Verizon: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/03/nyc-sues-verizon...
It just keeps going. I could provide dozens of links here. I just don't think you can make enough laws to get these companies to do the dirty work of wiring up unprofitable connections, and to stop lying about internet speeds.
I mean if you relax zoning regulations and permitting processes significantly, then private enterprise will get external funding and build it out. You can already get 5G home internet in a lot of areas from Verizon or TMo for way cheaper than the wired companies and it's just as fast in both bandwidth and latency. If we had a mmWave node on every block then the buildout problem gets solved pretty quickly.
> dirty work of wiring up unprofitable connections
It doesn't need to be wired to the home. See: Webpass. The problem is that NIMBYs will block ugly antennas sticking out from every building so you get mired in environmental reviews, neighborhood comments, etc. and nothing gets built.
Some of the spending, for instance: https://www.jsonline.com/in-depth/news/2021/07/14/weve-spent...
You'd have fibre to the home if the government paid by the home tested to have symmetric gigabit, with competition between telco's to complete the available homes.
Instead, governments pay for things other than the outcome.
No surprise they don't get the outcome.
Pay close attention to the attempts to build semiconductor manufacturing in the USA. This will fail for the same reason - the government is paying big money, but for the wrong things. It should be paying the big money when the first production quality wafers are delivered in real products. There's a big fail coming up there because they don't heed the lesson of the railway.
Is that how it is structured in the EU?
Still, I seldom get the complaints. Our industry is private, but heavily regulated.
Yes, there are bumps over the years, and the CRTC at times is not optimal, but the whole "must lease last mile" thing is part of that regulation.
A mix of public control, and private industry can work well. To speak to that, Bell, Rogers constantly squrim and writhe, under their forced requirement to lease to competitors.
They hate it, which to me means it can't be all bad.
That's not even starting in on the obvious price coordination that highlights the dearth of competition in the sector.
And Terra Nova Tel which provided phone service in parts of Newfoundland was built on the legacy of the former Dominion of Newfoundland Department of Posts and Telephones by Canadian National while the latter was still a federal crown corporation.
Never? Really? You're very wrong, privatized internet can work very well, I'm paying $10/mo for 1Gbps up/down here in Eastern Europe.