Wheat is trading below where it was when the Ukraine war started

These are hard to predict. However you always have the option to react.

The best way to react to news such as chip shortage, fertiliser shortage, wheat shortage, high prices in oil, is to sell once you hear the news.

Of course one would need to have bought first before such news arrives, so it’s always good to have a diversified portfolio so that these news will likely hit a small fraction of your portfolio.

One can also short sell and play with puts, but it’s more difficult there because you don’t know how fast the price will go down.

The price of Gasoline Futures has come down more than a dollar a gallon in recent weeks. At the pump, not so much.

When oil goes up next day price goes up at the pump, when it goes down it takes a little time to be seen on the pumps. The markets are like that, is complicated to understand for mere mortals like me.

go figure. overhyped commodities always crash hard. Bay Area homes have help up though despite shortage.