I am expecting a big earnings recession, but it may be next quarter, rather than this one.

It's taken a lot longer to play out than I expected, but you can get a decent sense of consumer spending via revolving credit e.g. credit cards.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCLACBW027SBOG

You can see how rapidly this has been rising since the covid deleveraging. But we're now back to trend and rates/real prices will be higher.

As long as consumers continue to lever up aggressively, earnings will be somewhat supported. But we're about to run into a brick wall with maxed out credit