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Comment by toomuchtodo | Hacker News Reader

"Constraint is a forcing function for ingenuity."

Renewables are going to ramp, floating LNG import terminals are already en route (to add capacity to the existing 24 in EU countries), and industrial processes requiring LNG will make due with less or seek alternatives. Europe will place a small number of coal plants on temporary standby, and they will only add 1.3% to EU emissions annually, even in the worst-case scenario where they run at maximum output.

There will be some pain, but this is the 21st century, not the 19th.

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If it would be the 19th century wood and coal would solve the problem, but unfortunately nothing can replace the existing natural gas infrastructure. Winter is a few months away.

How will renewables help this winter?

All the stuff you describe are need at least 2 years. At least. Plus, they are expensive. Energy will come with a huge premium in Europe. This is the time that Putin needs to build the pipelines to other countries.

Let us not forget that NOBODY is against the war: not a single South American, not any African country, not China, not India. This is a US/Canada/Europe/South Korea/Japan/Australia thing. Nobody else cares. They are happy to get cheap energy soon.

Short term impact on Europe: - cold winter - populism - crashing economy - gov financial support and more inflation - no inflation control as we cannot let Southern Europe crash, hence, no interest rate hikes

Mid-term effects - Expensive American dirty LNG - No competetive advantage anymore

I disagree with the West to 100% and hope that Putin will finish off Ukraine asap so this topic is finally closed.

Disclaimer: I have Ukranian roots, visited Ukraine often, support refugees here in Germany from day 1 and was for many weeks at the border when the war started. So please go away with your "morals" and value bs.

We have different perspectives. Are there challenges? Absolutely. Conversely, the free world ("United States and Co") has strong incentives to not allow Europe (a NATO ally) to fail due to Russia's actions. Direct military action is off the table at the moment (it appears?), but the US has robust economic capacity to assist logistically speaking. India may do nothing except get a deal on Russian energy, but China is in no position to assist considering the economic razor's edge they're currently on (they're even considering accepting imports of Australian coal again due to internal constraints).

Also, I take issue with "Expensive dirty LNG." While a greenhouse gas, fossil gas burns clean. It is a fine short term solution until this conflict reaches resolution, as long as you can shim in import infra at underutilized infrastructure intersections. The LNG shipping capacity is not a challenge (although import logistics are, as mentioned), and the cost premium is the cost of energy demand during a conflict.

> I disagree with the West to 100% and hope that Putin will finish off Ukraine asap so this topic is finally closed.

Speaking only based on factual information, this is unlikely. Putin is in poor health (shaking in public, puffy appearance likely due to heavy steroid use, putting off events without explanation), and the US will remain solvent longer than Russia can continue its military actions while under crippling economic sanctions. To allow Putin to succeed would set a geopolitical precedent that the developed world can't allow to be set. The American-supplied HIMARS are proving very effective in recent combat ops (per The Economist) against Russian assets, which is a positive sign that Ukraine continues to receive military support. In short, Putin will fail eventually because he cannot be allowed to succeed, we're simply haggling over the timeline.

Disclaimer: US citizen, not a warmonger, pragmatic about the application of military force as a necessary evil.

If (and that's a big if) Putin "finishes off" Ukraine, do you really think it's just back to normal for Europe/Russia relations?

"I have Ukranian roots"

This must be the I'm not racist, I have black friends equivalent of supporting a fascist regime and calling for it to finish off a country with 44 million people. Given Russia's past and current scorched-earth policy this would be a genocide, if it's not already is.

Even if Russia finishes off Ukraine it would not go back to business as usual, they would still hold the rest of the world hostage with nuclear weapons, and a few years later they would just invade another country. They must be stopped, and stopped now.

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