1. https://blog.pragmaticengineer.com/equity-for-software-engin... (Ctrl-F Stripe)
1. https://blog.pragmaticengineer.com/equity-for-software-engin... (Ctrl-F Stripe)
If I were conducting this valuation, I haven't done this myself, but I most definitely read our 409A valuations closely. I'd imagine that the outside firm hired to conduct the analysis on Fintech would use data like:
BLOCK (down 49% in last 6 months)
PAYPAL (down 60% in last 6 months)
COINBASE (down 75% in last 6 months)
INTUIT (down 30% in last 6 months)
VISA (down 5% in last 6 months)
SHOPIFY (down 70% in last 6 months)
Everyone at these fintechs, has seen the valuation of their company drop significantly (with the exceptions of VISA in the last 6 months. It's possible that stripe's performance is closer to VISA than to SHOPIFY, but only dropping 30% is likely pretty generous given the broader market.
Anyone with options at any of these public companies is dealing with the same challenges.
The opportunity cost of this restriction on their lives is huge.
Had they gone public two years ago, employees would have benefitted from a market of a lifetime, with equity in one of the best tickets in town.
A lot of life changing early retirements and "Fat FIRE".
What restriction, exactly?
Or to phrase parent's point differently: by not IPO'ing, Stripe forfeited the premium public markets would have been willing to pay Stripe employees for their stock.
Let's say they went public in '21 instead of raising money in June of that year. The market would've already turned by the end of the lockup period. By delaying the IPO there is still some chance that the shares can be sold on the public market for more than the grant price -- I would note that this really benefits Stripe hired post-2020 but at this point that's like 75% of the company.
I don't understand how this wouldn't be the exact situation you'd want to be in. my understanding is this:
1. If you're granted options at price X, and the new share price is lower than X, you're under no obligation to exercise your options. So no real financial loss or cost to you.
2. If you're granted options at price X, and the new share price is higher than X, you're still under no obligation to exercise your options. So it's up to you now.
3. You've exercised options at price X and now it's less than that. Well that sucks. No significant different from publicly traded shares being bought and suffering a price drop. Granted, it's easier to sell your public shares at a loss for reducing tax liability on other capital gains.
4. If you exercised options at price X and it went up then yay, you're winning.
5. If you are ensured to have been given $X worth of options, and your options have dropped to $Y, and now you'll be granted options to cover the difference of $X and $Y, these latest options will be granted at a lower price, $Z, and therefore will be better priced overall. Which would mean you could now exercise the options granted at the higher price or the ones granted at the lower price. Doesn't seem like it really matters or affects anything since the net gain is the same for the year.
I don't see an answer here for why reducing the unofficial internal valuation is bad except for the fact that they are saying we might not sell for as much anymore which affects all current stock holders if it ends up being true.
Because if your given a fixed dollar amount of shares, and the overall evaluation goes down, you get a higher percentage of ownership.
Why would you want this? In the event that there is an exit, I presume the payout is better.
Public companies are also declining currently if you're using valuation to determine growth. And some of these are 20+ year old companies.
> Two, you miss out on 3 years of upside relative to a 4-year grant. It’s a terrible deal, but I see why they’d want to give it.
This only true assuming things keep going up. Which as we can see, is not true. It's not a "terrible deal". It's a more risk averse deal. If you started a new job at a company in the last 6-12 months and were granted 4 years of stock at a higher price, then stripes offering probably looks pretty good right now.
If you reprice equity comp each year then you lose most of the upside.
Compare the two following equity plans:
Example Year 1:
---
PLAN 1
FMV: $1
Strike: $1
Total #: 40k ISOs
Vesting: 4yrs
---
PLAN 2
FMV: $1
Strike: $1
Total #: 10k ISOs
Vesting: 1yr
---
In the second plan you get granted new equity per year targeting some total comp. This means if the equity goes up in value a lot in the first year, when your new amount is recalculated it'll be way less than 10k.
Example Year 2:
---
PLAN 1
FMV: $2
Strike: $1
Total #: 40k ISOs (10k vesting in year 2)
Vesting: 1yr into 4yr period
---
PLAN 2
FMV: $2
Strike: $2 (new grant)
Total #: 5k ISOs (The 10k from the first year, and now half that # determined by new FMV for a cumulative total of 15k instead of 20k ISOs).
Vesting: 1yr on new grant
---
This lets the company keep the majority of the upside, taking it away from employees. It also hurts employees that stay longer or have a longer term interest in the company from capturing the value they helped create.
And the more the company goes up in value, the worse the trade off becomes.
Sure in the case of a crash you may get more stock (maybe assuming they don't reduce that given hard times, target comp is just a target after all - I don't think they commit to it). Typically companies regrant underwater equity in the case of a crash anyway (see peloton). Even in the best case, I'd guess it's unlikely the grants during a down year make up for being excluded from being able to get more at a lower price 5yrs out.
In this case Stripe cut their validation by 28% and may give more stock based on that price. Assuming they do, will employees come out ahead when compared to if they had been able to lock in 5yrs of equity up front at whatever the price was when they started?
You can always negotiate for more if your locked equity becomes worth a lot less, it's a stronger position to be in as an employee. The equity is a bet on capturing value of large upside imo, their structure limits that.
If you're given a 4 year grant for $X and during the first year, stock/options/whatever equity form drops 25%, then you now need to wait for the company to grow 33% to get back to your original target comp.
If that same situation happens except the drop happens in year 4 of a grant and you're above your target equity, then you'll be ahead only if the company has grown more than 33% since your initial grant date.
Now let's say you're granted an amount annually. And it drops 25% your first year and you plan to stay 4 years. Your equity portion of pay goes down for 1 year and then it goes back up. Now on year 2 you're given 1.33x the number of shares you were year 1. So let's say the company goes back up by year 4 to the original price and it steadily climbed back. If you sell at time of vesting, year 1 you took a 25% loss, year 2 you made some sort of gain. Year 3 you also made some sort of gain.
Let's say you held all vested stock and decided to sell at the end of year 4. Well your 1st year is flat but it's a loss due to opportunity cost and inflation. Year 2 has gone up 33%. Year 3 has gone up some amount as well. Year 4 probably has as well (assuming equity is priced at the beginning of the year).
I'd have to run real numbers to understand this, but again, I think people under estimate the affect a drop has. 4 year grants up front are just more risky and more of a gamble since you've basically bought 4 years worth of stock at a single price (e.g. you're timing the market).
> 2. If you're granted options at price X, and the new share price is higher than X, you're still under no obligation to exercise your options. So it's up to you now.
The payout on a call option is min(exercise - strike, 0). If you are granted options and X and the new share price is lower than X your options are now worth 0[1]. If the price is higher than X, you have lost some function of the volatility, time to expiry and Price_new - Price_old.
In both cases there is a real mark to market financial loss to you even if you haven't yet crystallized that loss by exercising (which of course you would never exercise if the value was zero).
[1] Actually very close to but not exactly zero because of the vol and the time to expiry. They could get above water again.
Those employees’ equity was worthless while those on RSUs in the US (and many other countries) still got something.
RSUs are worth less than transferable stock. You can’t get liquidity for an RSU (or nontransferable stock) without using a forward, which may be illegal if you have less than a $10mm net worth. Options yield stock, however, which can be sold.
For Stripe’s VCs, on the other hand, employees accepting RSUs makes their stock special. That increases the value of their shares.
It’s a multibillion dollar market that all the banks are active in.
Sure. But "expensive, slow and challenging" liquidity beats no liquidity at all. Which is why few investors would agree to the lock-up terms of an RSU. (These terms make sense at companies which aren't going concerns, because they're young or going bust. They also make sense for executives at all stages. They don't make any sense for a multibillion dollar enterprise.)
I've seen a couple of Stripe secondaries before so I assume that some set of employees are able to transact on the secondary market.
However, important disclaimer that not all companies have the same terms - and the terms can change depending on when you were hired. Startup equity isn't absurdly complicated, but it very much is situation-specific which is where the confusion usually comes from.
Interesting. I've not heard of the term "double trigger RSUs" before. What are the tax advantage of this over regular options? Most companies have right of first refusal of secondary market sales of pre-IPO stock. If the goal was to prevent secondary market sales. What does "double trigger RSUs" provide that right of first refusal does not?
The “double” trigger is the ipo requirement plus the usual time-vesting for stock grants
From the company’s perspective, employees with RSUs are not actually shareholders until IPO. All those SEC and state rules about having to report like a public company once you have a certain number of employees are avoided. It essentially lets companies stay private much longer.
Stripe has double-trigger RSUs which won't vest until after IPO.
Do they get to keep these RSUs until after the IPO + lockup period, even though they're not employed at Stripe anymore? (Is there another name for RSUs owned by someone not employed by a company anymore? e.g. unvested shares?)
my heart goes to engineers, who joined a startup on bold promises to make it, but never got to IPO, M&A or even worse - were forced to execute options to later sell them at loss
Anyone thinking of making money off stock options at pre-IPO startup are taking a get a) valuations are realistic b) startup will IPO. In this current environment, both are false.
For some shares, there is a private market, and typically the company has to approve of sales. If they do, and the market has willing buyers, no problem. If the company blocks every sale, it's worthless.