Do you have any actual statistics or are you just saying you do to borrow an air of authority?
What part of my comment do you disagree with exactly? That people, in general, overestimate their financial security and capacity to overcome recessions?
> First of all, the recessions tend to last longer than most people expect/plan for. Statistically, it will turn out their 'secure' jobs will be less 'secure' than expected. Meanwhile their emergency funds will start shrinking (slowly at first, then all at once) due to loss of purchasing power & eventual job loss.
Those predictions are not supported by the data, and are distinct from your description of them. I disagree with your implied statistics and sloppy use of words. I am skeptical that you can forecast the length of the recession, job loss, or changes in consumer behavior.
> I disagree with your implied statistics and sloppy use of words.
No problem if you disagree, it would be nice if you elaborate your point though. What exactly do you expect from a recession? What does your data say?
I'd also like to point out that Economics is not really an exact science, even with a ton of data at hand the predictions that economists make are wrong quite often. Specially during the past 2-3 years predictions have been quite bad - fiscal/monetary stimulus doesn't add much to inflation, if it does it will be transitory etc. That's one of the reasons we're in this mess.
so no statistics or experience