https://www.ieso.ca/power-data
Nuclear is the base load, alternatives supply what they can, and hydroelectric dams and gas plants act as the variable load supply.
If we can just lose the gas plants, we'd be pretty close to zero carbon. And I think that achievable.
e.g. refurbishement of Darlington was hundreds of millions over budget: https://globalnews.ca/news/3795801/darlington-refurbishment-...
I just came back from a few days up in Grey-Bruce and there are signs all over the place angry about the proposed NWMO waste diposal site up in Teeswater there. Very divided community about the issue. (Then again the same rough area or just east of it was extremely bitter about wind turbines some years ago, too, so can't please everyone...)
Unfortunately, a lot of the local communities consider the wind turbines eyesores and the current Premier is against them for that reason.
https://www.google.ca/maps/@42.2920464,-82.2696581,3a,75y,14...
Personally, I find the overhead power lines to be far uglier. The wind turbines look cool, but are barely visible from the road.
Agrivoltaics:
The calculus will surely be different for somewhere else that doesn't have those solutions in place.
Another 2500-3000 MW of nuclear would take up some more of the base load, and allow hydro to deal with most of the variable load.
Look at Texas- they only fall apart 1-2 days per year, but that's enough that it's a crisis every time. How confident are we that our hydro dams can sustain us in the worst case every year or decade?
I think to achieve it, we would need to see financial incentives, direct or indirect, to have everyone buying up power batteries for their homes, reducing the variable load. Maybe price incentives like nearly free electricity at night and extra costs during the day, etc.
Perhaps the magnitude of the failure is lower, but it's still failing if they're having as many blackouts as they might have later this summer.
We've had zero blackouts where I live in Texas. Not saying they don't exist, but they haven't been happening in my area and people seem to be very hyperbolic about it.
For most of the state, there appear to be no blackouts so far. Be careful and safe. I'd have some sort of back up plan for AC if I were you. This heat sucks. A few links for someone's edification and perusal.
https://poweroutage.us/area/state/texas
https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/local/farmersville-immedia...
https://www.kiiitv.com/article/news/local/is-your-power-out-...
https://www.newsweek.com/texas-power-shortage-electricity-er...
https://www.texastribune.org/2022/07/10/texas-blackouts-powe...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-11/texans-as...
https://news.yahoo.com/texas-power-breaks-record-heat-122512...
My concern is that we'd be talking about perhaps doubling the variable output needed from the existing system if we turn off the gas plants. Instead of needing 1 MW from them on a hot summer day, we suddenly need to ask them to provide 2 MW. Maybe it's doable, but it's asking a lot.
Imagine you've got a proposed project that will double the peak demand on my database. I say "What's the problem? The database works fine. There's no need to upgrade the hardware!". Same idea.
And climate change just adds more uncertainty, because droughts and floods are more common- while hydro does best with a steady input of water. I'm certain Quebec will be fine, because it's not planning to try to double the peak load on its plants.