Whose breath are you breathing?
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rnz.co.nz
See this study[1] in Nature that measured the effects of CO2 at 1000, 3000, and 5000 PPM. Quote: "For the Psychomotor Vigilance Test, the probability of achieving an accuracy score of >90% decreased in a dose–response like fashion from 79.5%, 74.7%, 73.4%, to 64.0% for 600, 1200, 2400, and 5000 ppm, respectively".
Another study[2] tried to establish the effect on response time, finding that "For every 500ppm increase, we saw response times 1.4-1.8% slower, and 2.1-2.4% lower throughput."
For a more pop-sci take on this, see this Tom Scott video where a subject is placed inside of an airtight chamber where the CO2 gradually increases, with a major impact on their brain function: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Nh_vxpycEA
[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41526-019-0071-6
[2] https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1bd8
I have so far not been in a conference room even scratching the 2000 ppm level after an hour. (Well, OK, I only leave my meter behind. At 1200ppm, I consider the level excessive and leave. But I've kept measuring to see how willing people are to burn their health to be in the office with others)
It's unfortunate that research on the impact of Co2 concentration on cognitive function and general wellness is so inconclusive (ie: effect size of high concentration on most tasks seems small), when subjectively it feels really high.
Some years ago I did some datascience work with a housing association wherein they installed high-frequency sensors in various rooms of housing units across the country (with the explicit consent of the inhabitants, data anonymized) with the intent on understanding how building properties and use correlated with the sensor data. In general there was (and still is) a lack of understanding how to model the relationship between things like building material, climate, occupancy, tenant behaviour and negative outcomes like mold growth, fuel poverty/health outcomes, and so on. I mean - I'm not saying there's no understanding, but it's definitely a field where more work is needed.
Anyways, one of the things I found most shocking is that in many of these flats, Co2 concentrations would get mind-bogglingly high in bedrooms during the months where tenants would likely have the windows closed (this is something you can infer by temperature gradients and heating usage). By mid-way through the night, some individuals were in rooms with 4k+ co2 ppm. A common side effect of breathing air with such a high concentration is waking up feeling groggy, disoriented, or with a headache. But what are these people supposed to do - many of these flats were low-income housing, so they're badly insulated to begin with, and they probably can't afford the heating bills of keeping windows open for ventilation.
Sorry for the long story - but the point is that there are many negative health externalities associated with poor ventilation in buildings and interior spaces, and at least we're starting to get attention on the problem now with covid. Hopefully this leads to improvements across the board.
to which tangential, interesting information was provided but left the original question unanswered.
Are we to assume literally nobody has an AC nor is it possible for AC to even exist in those situations? Because if it helps, then maybe something productive can come out of this conversation where we can aim to improve some of these living conditions through use of AC's - which would kill 2 birds with one stone.
It seemed like a genuine question that should be actually answered. I want to assume "yes" they would help, but I'd be guessing.
In the UK, most buildings are naturally ventilated. There's no mechanical ventilation moving air around automatically, you gotta open your window if you want airflow. In the winter this generally puts people between a rock and a hard place: either you are slightly cold and sitting in a stuffy roof, or you open a window and are REALLY cold and also go broke from the energy bills :P
NYC performs relatively better, it sits close to the surface with frequent vents. There have been simulated bioterror attacks that show the threat in the subway would dissipate quickly due to the ventilation.
The article mentions a bus. I would expect the bus to ventilate more poorly; trains have many doors per car and they simultaneously open for the entire stop in the station, but a double decker only has two doors, the back open to let people off and closed shortly after that’s done, and the top deck has no doors at all.
Steam hasn't operated on the Underground in 115 years, and only ever on a small minority of lines.
The problem is that, generally speaking, Central London lacks spots where you could just punch a ventilation shaft downwards, and the stations are too tight to accommodate modern HVAC otherwise.
Most of the London Underground is cut-and-cover tunnels sitting just below ground level (2-6m). The Thames Tunnel is 24m below ground level. The deepest station is Bull & Bush, Hampstead, at 57m (180ft) underground:
https://londonist.com/2015/10/how-deep-does-london-go
https://londonist.com/london/transport/how-deep-is-your-comm...
The NYC subway also uses extensive cut-and-cover routes, though deeper bores exist. The deepest station, at 191st St. (LRI) is 180 ft. (54m) below ground. About the same as the London Underground.
https://untappedcities.com/2013/06/26/deepest-highest-subway...
https://www.nycsubway.org/wiki/Chapter_14:_Engineering_Featu...
NYC's subways are underneath major roads and nearly always features extensive sidewalk venting for the entire length, as depicted in the iconic photo of Marilyn Monroe. https://img.atlasobscura.com/EEahxLmWgG-xahr-cXyJ1_TFUKch_pn...
AFAIU that's a major component of any subway's ventillation.
The difference is that London relies solely on the piston effect. NYC has the subway vent grates on nearly every block where a subway runs. Modern systems generally also use HVAC.
1) does CO2 correlate well to spit droplets? they mention this (alleging that places with more talking have more spit droplets than ones without) but present no data. Also, does CO2 on public transport involve any exhaust from the vehicle? Are people in gyms breathing a lot with their mouth closed, producing more CO2 but not talking (or otherwise producing spit droplets) nearly as much. Lots of ways this could be not very correlated.
2) does quantity of spit droplets really correlate to likelihood of getting infected? Viruses are replicators. It is not at all obvious to me that 1/2 the number of viruses means 1/2 the risk of getting infected. It might not even result in a significant drop at all. Theoretically one droplet containing the virus is enough to infect you, and if infected it replicates. The operative factor is how well your immune system recognizes the threat and produces antibodies, not how many virus copies were there originally. One drop was enough to infect just over half of a young, healthy experimental subject group: https://www.science.org/content/article/scientists-deliberat...
These probably aren't independent, and are occurring at the same time. So while a very small amount of virus is replicating, the immune system is mounting a defense, slowing down that replication. The virus may never get to a significant amount (although the immune response might knock you on your ass.)
On the other hand, if you start with a ton of virus already, you'll be dealing with the immune response and the direct effects of the virus at the same time, and the virus may overwhelm or even limit the immune response.
Put it another way. If your immune system recognizes the virus already, it matters little whether you get one droplet or a thousand, it will beat it because it has a several-day head start in doing so.
If, on the other hand, your immune system does not already recognize it, then it will not begin to see the problem, and thus will not begin to react, until it has replicated up to a large amount, where "large" is some amount greater than either one droplet or one thousand will give you. So, the consequences of getting exposed to 1/2 or 1/10 of the number of copies of the virus, is basically nil, because an exponential rise will be needed in either case to get up to the level where your immune system notices a problem.
Either your immune system already recognizes the virus as a problem, or it doesn't. I neither case does the dose matter, so long as the dose is big enough to start the process. And that probably doesn't take much.
We also know that poor ventilation increases the likelihood of catching covid from an infected individual. So measuring the level of a space's ventilation is not meaningless data, even if it doesn't translate 1-to-1 with transmission rates.
The ones where it is moot is those where either you you are already infected or no-one is.
Halving the number of droplets will have no effect if droplet inhalation is not causal in transmission. In this case, there is plenty of evidence that it is, in fact, the primary mode of transmission.
It would also be the case when, even at the lower droplet count, one is likely to become infected. This is essentially the scenario in your second point.
None of the above are the case in a typical bus ride today, and for such, it is reasonable to suppose, as a first approximation absent further evidence, that risk is correlated with the degree to which one is rebreathing other people's exhalations, even though one can postulate that it is also correlated with other factors.
One can question the source of the CO2 on a bus, but the measured values reported here are significantly above those measured by busy urban roads, where 1000ppm is considered vary high. If the bus is leaking CO2 into the cabin to any significant degree, there are more immediate health concerns.
Demanding near-perfect data before considering its implications can be a way to avoid issues.
All the studies I've seen so far correlate CO2 with aerosol levels. If spit droplets are a concern, I have no idea.
2) Covid studies so far have shown that there's a minimum level of viral load required for an initial infection, and they have also shown that there's a correlation between initial dose and severity of infection. So, yes, how many virus copies were there originally matters very much.
In general, this has been explored in a large number of studies. I'd suggest at least a cursory research before claiming issues that "render the data near meaningless".
> Nowadays, at least in the population of the industrialized nations, about 40 percent of the nitrogen contained in the human body has already taken part in the Haber-Bosch synthesis.
(from the German https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haber_process article)
In a time where gigabytes are trivial (megabytes is enough for hundred thousands of measurements anyway here), why do such limitations like "7 days" still exist?
If there's a way to get a CSV or similar file you can analyze on any device you want, then we're talking
The CSV contains datapoints for each recording (default to 5 mins but use configurable): Time(dd/mm/yyyy), Carbon dioxide(ppm), Temperature(°C), Relative humidity(%), Atmospheric pressure(hPa)
I’m very impressed by the device and recommend it.
None of them log to sd card. I'd fully expect a functional solution that does logging with all of the other features to cost more than $100, but if i can be proven wrong, i'd buy one, for sure.
For example, with an SD card we now also need a clock - which ideally would have a different power supply than the sensor suite, otherwise the timestamps will overwrite if the supply is lost, or otherwise be incorrect.
Definitely the same ballpark as ara4. (I mean, building the thing would subtract several hours of time one could spend commenting on HN instead, so choose accordingly :)
If the home device gave unlimited history, then there'd be less incentive to buy the pro version and subscribe to their cloud service.
We are maintaining an open source / open hardware indoor air quality project that measures CO2, PM2.5, temperature and humidity [1].
We use the same CO2 Sensor (Senseair S8) as the device in the article and I can confirm that it's very accurate.
[1] https://www.irishtimes.com/news/science-asserts-we-are-all-p...
(I know, it's probably mostly BS -- I'd bet most of the last breath has been absorbed into the ocean, or plants, or whatever. But, over my lifespan, I've probably sucked down atoms of Jesuse's breath during his lifespan. With that, who needs holy relics.)
It's possible (but not proven) that inverting this would be much safer, since on the airplane the air gets exchanged a lot.
https://twitter.com/alexr/status/1523125114371719168
"Hey @united, it'd be great to see better fresh air circulation in your Austin airport Club. The box in the photo is a CO2 sensor measuring parts per million, and 1117 was pretty high for just a few people in the bar area at the time. Above 1000 cognitive function can be impaired."
https://twitter.com/brianbehlendorf/status/15407875450338181...
Even NPR summarized the risks. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/27/8222116...
Airlines, and the regulators, are only worried about optics, not our health.
i) if we all drove cars, the result would also be bad
ii) I wonder if there are benefits from this (stronger herd immunity)
E.g. toxoplasmosis
There's been some research done on whether the flu is an STD making people more...sociable. Perhaps asymptomatic COVID infections encourage people to mingle more? Or maybe other actual STDs do? The existing science is weak, troublesome (it's very hard to research ethically) and few but I love the idea of it.
Apologies, since i read a lot of studies and only remember to save a few, and even so i have no way to catalog/tag/review the studies i have read. I just know i read it in the last 2 years so it could have been SARS-NCoV-2 or flu.
There are a few diseases better to get as a kid than as an adult, but we mostly have vaccines for those now. And respiratory viruses aren't included in the category of those we need exposure to for immune system development.
>In 2003 Graham Rook proposed the "old friends hypothesis" which has been described as a more rational explanation for the link between microbial exposure and inflammatory disorders.[20] The hypothesis states that the vital microbial exposures are not colds, influenza, measles and other common childhood infections which have evolved relatively recently over the last 10,000 years, but rather the microbes already present during mammalian and human evolution, that could persist in small hunter-gatherer groups as microbiota, tolerated latent infections, or carrier states. He proposed that coevolution with these species has resulted in their gaining a role in immune system development.
What's confusing? Get infected once, avoid tens of infections. If your immune system "forgets" the immunity after 6 months (which is the case for COVID), then every 4 months get exposed, you won't get actively sick since you still have some immunity, and you'll keep your immunity high.
From a contra-positive point of view, if there were herd immunity, then you would not be able to get re-infected every 4 months because there would be no carriers of the virus to infect you.
I think the bottom line is that 'herd immunity' is only a concept if immunity is durable and long lasting. Otherwise that herd immunity decays too quickly and you wind up in a cycle where everyone gets infected, the infection levels drops off, that immunity wears off, rinse-wash repeat.
Anecdotally, I was on a train recently and was talking to my neighbors where an elderly woman said casually that the 3rd time being infected she was in the hospital for only 7 days that time. The implication being that this part of the population could land in the hospital repeatedly every 4-6 months. I would wager that someone who is 65 to around 70 years old will survive covid related pneumonia only so many times before they don't. I think this speaks to how Covid is pretty vicious.
And all that is to say that 'natural' herd immunity is not our ticket out of this problem (just based on the math). There may be no good tickets out of this short of everyone vaccinating every 6 months and also reducing transmission rates (eg: early detection and quarantining/masking to avoid infecting others, and reducing your own risk of infection via distancing/masking).
Another problem with this concept (at least for things like COVID) is that every time the virus is passed on it has a chance to mutate into something your immune system is unprepared for. Maybe you catch it and don't feel sick, or are only briefly/mildly sick, but you can still play host to it long enough for it to mutate and get passed to someone else. The more it moves from host to host the better it gets at surviving and defeating immune systems.
Entire populations passing a virus back and forth at a high rate for long periods of time seems like a disaster waiting to happen.
Vaccination would not help because it works exactly the same way.
Vaccination certainly helps for the initial response, so people don't get as sick. But after that natural immunity is superior to vaccination.
But it's not true what you say, a mutated virus can still elicit a partial response. So if people are constantly exposed to the new virus they will never get seriously sick.
Not spreading the virus around would be the ideal. If we got people protected with vaccines and kept community spread low the number of variants wouldn't rise as quickly. Fewer variants would mean vaccines would stay effective longer and we wouldn't be rolling the dice on any new nasty features as often. I don't think we can ever hope to eradicate the virus from the earth now that it's here, but we could do a lot more to keep it from spreading at the kinds of rates it has been.
> Vaccination would not help because it works exactly the same way.
Vaccination doesn't work the same way because you gain the immunity without having the virus. No virus in you, no chance for the virus to mutate or spread and then mutate. You might still get infected by someone else later, but you aren't depending on getting infected to maintain your immune system's preparedness and if community spread is low because people are vaccinating instead of virus swapping your odds of getting the actual virus will be low as well.
> Vaccination certainly helps for the initial response, so people don't get as sick. But after that natural immunity is superior to vaccination.
From the evidence we have right now a combination of vaccine+infection gives the most robust protection, however that still involves getting infected and taking your chances with lasting heart lung and kidney problems. In my book, not having to take my chances with complications or long covid more than makes up for the difference which makes vaccines without infection superior. The odds of ending up with long covid was 1 in 5 in a recent study (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7121e1.htm) but different variants will carry different levels of risk. Even if you like your odds today, if you're just passing the virus around incubating new variants all the time who knows what odds you'll end up with later. There's evidence that people who get reinfected with the virus have an increase in their risks for long covid too.
> But it's not true what you say, a mutated virus can still elicit a partial response.
It all depends on what the mutations are. If a virus changes enough it may no longer be recognizable as the virus you were previously infected with. We're somewhat lucky with Covid because its structure makes it less likely to mutate to the point where we don't get some kind of response, but it's already evolved so much that our first vaccines which were 90% effective at preventing infection while at full strength are now only 30-40% effective at preventing infection.
The good news so far is that even the old vaccines are pretty effective against the most severe cases and death, but that too is subject to change. It's already looking like re-exposing your immune system has diminishing returns. That was one concern people had over recommending 4th doses of the original vaccines. The protection from infection people got from shot #4 didn't last nearly as long as it did after getting shot #3. I'm really hoping the new vaccines help with that. Right now people who get covid can get reinfected with the newest strain after just one month!
Sadly I do not recall the answer but it was way more than I expected. The Avogadro constant is a lot.
Second, I found a wealth of articles just by searching: japan train ventilation
Train operators already have good methods in place: https://www.jreast.co.jp/e/customer_support/corona-info/inde...
It looks like the frequent stops are very good at ventilating the trains: https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2020112601115/
But they recognize the the problem: https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2020/07/trains-and...
It isn't impossible to ventilate a train well. I've been on a train with CO2 around 600 and another around 3,000. Air system design matters
However, one train in Japan did have very high levels based on a transport ministry study: https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14515055
Not for the trains at rush hour in Tokyo.
Some of us want to catch the bus. Some of us have to
preferably mostly plants