Surging supply and softening demand weigh on chipmakers
economist.com
economist.com
With that in mind it might be a good idea to stack up some chip supplies.
PS: no clue why anyone would downvote something like that :)
If there are sanctions or war with China, we will have much bigger problem. Current regime may even go nuclear.
China will not capture the fabs.
Real value that Russia can bring to table for China is wheat production.
Do people really still believe this?
Look at the actual facts on the ground: land-bridge to Crimea, Luhansk 100% under Russian control, Donetsk most probably getting there, also some chunks of Kharkiv province, about 7 million Ukrainian refugees, Ukrainian's army potential drastically reduced (i.e. "demilitarisation" that seemed to have worked), how is all this "failing spectacularly"?
Russia is now set up for long-time decline, with even worse demographics than it had before the war.
Russia may be in demographic decline - but there's still tonnes of time before that problem becomes insurmountable. The regime doesn't care about that anyway.
Ukraine’s army is being modernised by backers that eclipse Russia’s industrial capacity many times over. This is a war of attrition Russia is spending decades-old back catalog on to fuel a domestic narrative.
They lack manpower but, unfortunately for their victims, they seem to be managing by conscripting the occupied population.
The key will be on whether the West will lose interest in supporting Ukraine before Russia runs out of resources.
They will never be able to unify the region in their favor, so I really don’t get what is the point in their operation anymore.
Obviously toppling the government proved to be well beyond Russia's means, but I wouldn't be surprised if they might try to take advantage of the post war hardships for a coup. It will be important for the West to help Ukraine with reconstruction to avoid this.
Except they’re not. And they won’t be able to. For the time being, light insurgency and the threat of shelling all but foreclose resource development in eastern Ukraine for years to come.
This is Russia’s Afghanistan. Except unlike the U.S. or USSR, Russia is not a superpower. (Its economy is eclipsed by California’s. And its military struggles even miles off its border.)
And Russia did manage to integrate Crimea.
Kidding aside, Ukraine has nothing to gain with attacking the Russian population with terror attacks as that might be the excuse Putin needs for forced conscription and further escalation (even nuclear).
Non conventional attacks on military assets in the occupied areas are to be expected though and are in fact already happening.
The guerillas that killed two soldiers at a cafe in Kherson.
The guerillas that exploded a bomb at a cafe with soldiers in Mariupol
Russia appears to be incapable of securing the areas they have captured.
The only thing that happens if they lost is the army takes off their uniforms and the molotovs come out.
If Russia cannot secure what they have now what makes you think they can secure the entire of Ukraine?.
Does Crimea count as occupied Ukraine? Russia has had no problems whatsoever in fully integrating the peninsula or building infrastructure.
A lot of commentators thought the Russians would be in Kyiv after a few days. Putin might well have thought so as well.
Now a quick knockout punch has turned into a long grappling match, that's failure.
Ukrainians have slowly been driven out of the south, but have generally held the Russians at the Siverskyi Donets river. Spectacular footage exists of the failed attempt to cross it with two BTGs which were entirely destroyed.
And the big failure is political: Sweden and Finland have been driven to immediately join NATO. Attacking Ukraine has moved NATO's border eastwards. Countries adjoining Russia and Ukraine and Belarus have decided they need to arm themselves rapidly. Russia has been cut off from replacement supplies of Western goods, and can no longer e.g. make cars.
The war will continue for the forseeable future, like the war in Syria, but with gradually reducing intensity and slow pushing back by the Ukranians.
Economic sanctions on Russia were useless. China didn’t budge nor did India nor did most of Africa and South America highlighting the new irrelevance of the USA. Ukraine failed to properly negotiate after stopping the Kiev advance when it would have been advantageous to do so because the USA was a poor steward and is now sure to lose significant territories in the south. The war will not be allowed to keep going for long because it has a significant impact on Ukraine allies economies and these allies are already significantly pushing for new negotiations to take place. Sweden and Finland joined NATO at significant cost to them in their negotiations with Turkey. It’s not far from a complete debacle honestly.
In a war everybody loses. Blowing up buildings and killing people how could that not be a defeat for everybody. The question is who started it? Who is the aggressor?
I dislike wars as much as anyone else. They are a waste of resources especially when they drag for no reason. But they are more or less a fact of life. What matter is understanding whose interests they serve and why they are waged so we can build the conditions of a stable peace. Ideals are not going to get you far in international politics but they certainly are an easy string to tug on for propaganda purpose.
The sanctions on Russia have caused them to be unable to wage war in a way that they could have previously, which was the point.
On top of the number of people living below the poverty line in Russia in the first quarter of 2022 rose by 69%. Probably not all the sanctions, but given the amount of jobs that just up and left its likely related.
> China didn’t budge nor did India nor did most of Africa and South America highlighting the new irrelevance of the USA
China, Russias 'closest' ally with a 'unlimited friendship' isn't doing anything outside of providing humanitarian aid to Russia. They clearly want no part of it.
> Ukraine failed to properly negotiate after stopping the Kiev advance when it would have been advantageous to do so because the USA was a poor steward and is now sure to lose significant territories in the south
Ukraine will now likely retake Crimea if things keep going how they have been the past two weeks, if Russia never invaded they would of ironically kept more land. I await the day that Russia loses their black sea fleet.
> The war will not be allowed to keep going for long because it has a significant impact on Ukraine allies economies and these allies are already significantly pushing for new negotiations to take place. Sweden and Finland joined NATO at significant cost to them in their negotiations with Turkey. It’s not far from a complete debacle honestly.
Ukraines allies have repeatedly said that any negotiations are up to Ukraine, I think that a lot of the allies (especially eastern European states that have felt the thumb of Russia before) know that this war is about a lot more than Ukraine and Russia.
To quickly reply to you (at that point a long answer would be a waste of my time), sanctions didn’t meaningfully impact Russia revenue which raised with gaz and oil prices. China is actually importing things from Russia. Ukraine has no chance of retaking Crimea - which doesn’t want to be retaken anyway - and is currently losing territories, infrastructures and seeing a very real erosion of its available manpower not winning them. Negotiations have to be made by Ukraine obviously but allies have a lot of sway there. Ukraine couldn’t wage this war without the support of NATO countries and these countries are first and foremost serving their own interests as usual.
Ukraine will retake all of its territory in time.
If Russia is winning so much why are they rolling out units that are compromised of volunteers that are nearly geriatric?.
Why is Russia using weapons that where designed to take out America aircraft carriers against Ukrainian shopping malls? (kh-22).
Why is Russia using tanks that where made in the 1960's (T-62).
Ukraine already has weapons that far outstrip anything that Russia has deployed against them so far (HIMARS, m777's, CESARS, KRABS and Panzerhaubitze 2000) and they are getting more as time goes (NASAMS and M270's).
Multiple Russian ammo depots explode nearly every day from HIMARS, and Russia has no effective counter to them, because of the way that Russian logistics work this will be devastating if it's kept up.
Russia is and always has been a paper tiger, never forget they lost in Chechnya and they lost in Afghanistan.
AFAIK Taiwan doesn't have any resources like Ukraine does. It has an amazing strategic presence militarily, but strengthening their military position in the Pacific doesn't immidiately help with an economic problem unless the US is trying to blockade them by sea.
China is not Russia. But Xi is weak. There was no reason to rush on Hong Kong when it was going to, without controversy, revert to Chinese law in a few decades. By being impatient, Xi undermined Chinese interests there, in Taiwan and internationally in favour of his personal political interests. If China invades Taiwan, it will be in recapitulation of Galtieri’s junta in the Falklands.
China has been getting more aggressive lately— flying military jets deep into Taiwanese air space. I would not be surprised if China made a move in the next 18 months.
Invading Taiwan won't help with economic problems, it helps with their strategic issues with accessing the Pacific.
No one in China is looking around trying to figure out which direction will be the most profitable direction for an invasion that they're gunning for. They're gunning for Taiwan specifically. As far as economic imperialism, China shows low willingness to attempt nation building and high enthusiasm for investing in projects in questionably stable states.
* Unmonitored access to deep ocean waters for submarines.
* Shift world politics in their favor - unseat the US-led de-facto world order and replace it with a Chinese one.
The above are perfectly described in Ray Dalio's "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order".
He evaluates the probability of a war with China in the next 5-10 years at 35%.
Moreover, he argues the US itself is in Stage 5 of 6 of its Big Cycle, with stage 6 being insurrection/revolution.
It isn't lost on Chinese high command that the longer they wait, the easier it will be to fight the US. All their planners would be saying "lets not start the war with the US now, lets wait a few years".
Now maybe they go in Putin-style anyway, but Russia is being cornered. China isn't under that sort of external pressure. They can afford to drag this out, Russia has been losing vs. the US for more than 40 years.
Xi is getting old. He may want to be around for the invasion. Also, if the next leader isn't as aggressive, the moment may be missed. China is imploding far ahead of schedule developmentally (probably mostly a one child policy thing), whereas the US population is doing the reverse. By 2030, the tail end cohort of the most aggressive era of population suppression will be nearing 40y.o.
Do you mean economy is better somewhere else? There are now more jobs in US than before the pandemic. Isn't that pretty good at least relatively speaking?
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/there-are-now-more-...
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S
The US is deeply in debt and printing money has become part of the Plan A response to every crisis.
They can't afford to wage war in Asia against China. Afghanistan against goatherds had them gasping with the exertion, and this proxy war against Russia might easily prove too much if they get overexcited. It is just a matter of time until the US has to pull their head in for financial reasons. If China waits 10 years there is even a chance the US collapses on its own without help. They aren't going to recover from 130% debt:GDP without a political crisis of some sort.
Per the post above, China's population has been dropping since 4 years ago but the statistics have been doctored pretty aggressively to hide this fact. The linked tweet alleges a 120million person discrepancy between government reporting and the reality.
Separately, your source is number of unfilled jobs, not number of jobs, which I wouldn't use to attempt proof of the economy's health.
> PS: no clue why anyone would downvote something like that :)
Because there’s no way of knowing whether these unamed exiles exist or, if they do, there’s any reason to think they would have any insight on the matter? This being the internet, it’s safer to assume you’re making the whole thing up (no offense intended ;) )
Potato chips and iodine will be much higher on my list.
I've already got enough of them so I won't try ordering it.
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