Once seen as fleeting, a new solar tech proves its lasting power
princeton.edu
princeton.edu
Having said that, once/if they crack this, it opens up whole new frontiers for solar, which is already on track to utterly dominate electricity production without this factored in.
The three main new areas are low cost, low weight, and as a layer on existing cells to improve efficiency. They'll expand the frontiers of where solar makes sense in several directions.
Another interesting battery (and software dev) parallel. They're not just excited about the current record, but excited that they have a way to evaluate long term performance of new methods.
This is very similar to the work done by Jeff Dahn at Dalhousie (in partnership with Tesla). Once they had the method to measure results they could throw things at the wall and see what would still stick after a full service life without waiting 30 years.
His latest work is about how you build batteries to last 100 years.
https://cleantechnica.com/2022/05/26/jeff-dahn-the-100-year-...
> What do you do when an entire region is sunless and windless for a week
To me that sounds like a highly theoretical problem. I'm not a meteorologist or climate scientist, clearly, but I think a if you have a week-long thick cloud cover chances are probably comes with solid winds, no?
Moreover, as we transition homes from gas heating to heat pumps, this will increase demand on the grid and it will also increase the risks in case of failure (people freezing). Moreover, even without cloud cover, winters are snowy and the days are short and the light is indirect.
Real world grid scale solar farms are placed in sunny areas that don't get regular cloud cover or even snow like that. Washington State and Chicago are terrible locations for solar, but moving electricity is surprisingly cheap. https://blog.solarenergymaps.com/2014/05/potential-solar-ene...
That said, cloudy days reduce but don't eliminate output, so as excess capacity is added the minimum output keeps increasing. A hypothetical green hydro/wind/solar grid would have significant excess solar capacity the same way the current grid adds redundant conventional powerplants.
Your link doesn’t support your claim that moving energy is surprisingly cheap. I’m of the impression that this isn’t the case (we can’t easily build transmission lines that can carry the necessary amount of power from the southwest to other parts of the country).
Individual UHVDC links are in the multiple GW range. Exact numbers depend on a host of factors but something like 1c/kWh per 1,000 miles for long range is a reasonable ballpark. (Upfront costs in the billions.) Though it’s much higher for underwater links, etc.
A link sending power 24/7/365 at maximum capacity is significantly cheaper, conversly geographic barriers can quickly increase prices. Also those costs aren't constant with distance the transmission lines cost far less than the equipment at either end.
And don't be surprised when electric companies pay a lower rate for solar from you as they charge to supply you with power.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/queensland-to-add-more-than-a-do...
> “The new batteries will be spread across major centres in regional Queensland near communities that have significant rooftop solar generation because we know that’s where they will have the greatest overall benefit.
> “The network of the future will not only need to move electricity from where it is generated to where it’s going to be used, but also to when it’s consumed.”
And sure, utilities can buy power from consumers at a lower cost than they charge for power, but that only works until batteries decline to a cost point where consumers simply replace their utilities with batteries. Is that today? Not yet! But with the amount of battery manufacturing capacity spooling up for EVs and utility scale storage, that day will arrive.
A grid entirely based on solar in those regions is less optimal, but no one is proposing such a thing.
All that said, I'm quite hopeful for grid stabilization tech coming online in the next decade.
Source: I've spent the last few years working on renewables R&D
Roughly speaking, short term stabilization helps deal with fluctuations in demand over the course of a day. The Hornsdale Power Reserve[0] is a good example, it's basically a big bank of Lithium Ion batteries. This allows us to handle, say, everyone in Australia turning on their AC when they get home without needing blackouts to reduce load. At night, excess power generation can then refill the batteries.
Unfortunately this is not a workable solution if total demand per day exceeds total power production per day for more extended periods (think weeks). This is precisely the problem that can occur with solar or wind. Lithium Ion Batteries are not suitable for storing large amounts of charge over longer periods. We would instead like a battery that can perform longer term storage of power at an affordable price during winder and sunnier periods.
I'm currently excited by the approach taken by Form Energy[1] for what is called a Rust Battery. If they get it working this essentially allows us to trap and release energy through an extremely cheap and scalable chemical process. During a sunny summer you could potentially store enough excess power to get you through a very cloudy winter.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hornsdale_Power_Reserve [1] https://formenergy.com/
Power companies don't need to tear down oil and gas generators right away, they just need to scale back their use as they rely more on renewables. You mention two mitigations, expanding the geographic region and overprovisioning. Both of these raise the cost of transition, but not prohibitively.
They don't say in the article, but perovskites are amenable to stacking with different wavelength capture characteristics, so can be built to capture above 40% of incident solar energy. That, and being radically cheaper to produce than Si cells, means there is great interest in this result.
You would be pretty peeved if your solar panel went all to hell in a year, so you calibrate accordingly.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/35/Be...
If you look at pricing a large solar farm you'll be surprised that the cost of modules is probably only a third of the total cost but when you reflect on land, cabling, inverters, grid connection, and installation then it's not really surprising. Given these costs, you've got an obvious incentive to buy higher efficiency modules for a small premium for savings on installation, mounting, and land use and a disincentive to buy cheap and not yet high efficiency perovskites.
This is why companies like OxfordPV are targeting tandem perovskite-silicon cells with efficiencies at 30%. Even if this costs 1.5 times as much as a 20% efficient silicon cell, it'd still bring down the price of your solar farm.
https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/80694.pdf
See page 19 for all varieties of “about a third”
The cost for obtaining 1 kWh from a 90% efficient panel that lasts 1 year will be much greater than the /kWh cost of a 40% panel that lasts 10 years.
And solar panels are already very cheap.
(The only exceptions are space/weight constrained applications like satellites.)
Ahh, this method of discovery never gets old <3
“The results showed a device that would perform above 80 percent of its peak efficiency under continuous illumination for at least five years at an average temperature of 95 degrees Fahrenheit. Using standard conversion metrics, Loo said that’s the lab equivalent of 30 years of outdoor operation in an area like Princeton, NJ.”
Sounds pretty near your benchmark!
Edit: Article goes in more details, but they did fast age it in 100C, so it should be durable. That said, I'm still doubtful it would perform as well in real world, especially since global warming would raise air temperature. Did the 30 year models account for rise in temperature?
Do the Si estimates?
https://web.archive.org/web/20220709132444/https://reader.el...
https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S2214157X20303439?...
If it makes manufacturing cheaper and see through panel potential is neat.
We have had solar a number of years now. With the arrival of an electric car our seeming decent sized array isn’t enough. Im not sure the current market is going well, our panel manufacturer (LG) stopped making them..
These prefixes (for money) are getting out of hand
The “Walton Professor of Engineering” would have been sufficient.
Lots of money apparently buys lots of wordsmithing.